Book Description
As a founder and managing director of Global Business Network, James Ogilvy helped develop the technique of scenario planning, which has become an integral part of strategic thinking in both business and government. Now Ogilvy shows how we can use this cutting-edge method for social change in our own neighborhoods. In Creating Better Futures, Ogilvy presents a profound new vision of how the world is changing--and how it can be changed for the better. Ogilvy argues that self-defined communities, rather than individuals or governments, have become the primary agents for social change. Towns, professional associations, and interest groups of all kinds help shape the future in all the ways that matter most, from schools and hospitals to urban development. The key to improvement is scenario planning--a process that draws on groups of people, both lay and expert, to draft narratives that spell out possible futures, some to avoid, some inspiring hope. Scenario planning has revolutionized both public and private planning, leading to everything from the diverse product lines that have revived the auto industry, to a timely decision by the state of Colorado to avoid pouring millions into an oil-shale industry that never materialized. But never before has anyone proposed that it be taken up by society as a whole. Drawing on years of experience in both academia and the private sector, where he developed both a keen sense of how businesses work best and an abiding passion for changing the world, James Ogilvy provides the tools we need to create better communities: better health, better education, better lives.
Customer Reviews:
Scenarios of better futures -- "democratically endorsed hope".......2006-05-17
Jay Ogilvy begins this book by observing that "There is nothing inevitable about better futures. We have to create them." This is a powerful early statement of his approach toward the yet-to-be, which repudiates a singular and predictive mode of knowing. That is, he argues, we co-author the future through our actions, and we must take responsibility for that process. The burden of the book is to explain how and why we can coherently do so.
So although it may seem at first to be a methodological work, this is more of a philosophical meditation on what lies behind the scenario planning methodology; an exposition of the worldview which informs and makes scenaric thinking, especially normative scenarios, viable. For detail on how to actually do scenario planning, we are referred to previous, more manual-like works by such authors as Kees van der Heijden and Peter Schwartz. Ogilvy's focus is different, and he shows how scenarios provide the catalyst for a conversation among communities about what they want to become. Rather than holding the perils of judgment or moral commitment at arm's length, then, as much academic work modeled on supposedly "hard" science wants to do, in this arena he argues for its importance. "World-weary pessimism seems so much more intellectually respectable than even the most educated hope. However, I would argue...that the fashionable face of all-knowing despair is finally immoral. Granted, the bubble-headed optimism of Pangloss and Polyanna are equally immoral. A refusal to look at poverty or oppression can contribute to their perpetuation; but so can a cynical commitment to their inevitability."
Ogilvy takes it upon himself to show how the practice of normative scenario planning anticipates a paradigm shift currently occurring in the "human sciences", by embracing an interpretive, relational, ethically pluralistic - but not shallowly relativistic - worldview. He situates this thinking in the broad currents of contemporary thought by reference to literary criticism, anthropology, psychology, sociology and other disciplines. Rather than claiming entirely original scholarship, then, here he joins "familiar dots in relatively unfamiliar ways". The book ranges across a vast and various intellectual territory in search of a sound basis for normative futures work. In my view he finds it, and presents it, extremely well. For example, he suggests an intriguing parallel between the trajectory of literary criticism and that of studying the future. In interpretation, the tendency has gradually shifted from an original emphasis on the author's intentions, to the text itself, and finally to the role of the reader in constructing her own meaning. Similarly, studying the future was long conceived as an attempt to reveal "God's intentions", after which it became mainly a scientific attempt to trace the story etched in the patterns of history, or reality itself; and finally it has emerged as a matter of creating worlds and meanings for our own purposes. (Rather than being merely "readers" of the world, though, we can now see ourselves of the authors of our own story, thereby closing the interpretive loop.)
This philosophical approach may sound specialized, but in fact it reads as a startlingly clarifying and accessible portrait of the best practice in thinking about possible futures; things that haven't happened yet. Rather than writing an instructional guide to scenario planning he takes the trouble to explain how and why the worldview underpinning this strategy makes sense, and how the whole philosophical current of the West of our age is tending in this direction. It is therefore suitable and relevant to a far broader possible audience. Ogilvy's philosophy experience allows him to understand complex writers and thinkers, but his business background has forced him to avoid the communicative obscurantism that accompanies them. He wants to use the ideas, but extracts these from their ugly and intimidating packaging for use in a purer and more potent form. He navigates us through the dilemma of relativism (anything goes) vs absolutism (My Way, My Tradition...) and comes out with a relational worldview and an endorsement of pluralist ethics.
Ogilvy describes the book as an "odd mix of philosophy and consulting". The book is indeed a rare hybrid, like its author, part-academic and part-consultant. And it may equally puzzle purist philosophers and dedicated profiteers. However, for anyone interested in being able to bridge the thought-worlds of academia and business (or thought and action; principles and profits), this combination is not only refreshing to read, it's a definite strength. Ogilvy has had a chance to "test in the marketplace" the ideas he picked up in philosophy, and the test has made them stronger. So, an odd mix it may be, but it's one pulled off so persuasively and elegantly that the book warrants the close attention of not only those already concerned with futures studies, but more broadly, anyone concerned about how quality thinking about the future ought to look. In this respect I am reminded of The Ecology of Commerce, by Paul Hawken, a former colleague of Ogilvy. (They were two thirds of the team that wrote Seven Tomorrows, an early scenarios book; the third musketeer was fellow GBN Peter Schwartz, who provides a brief but helpful foreword in this volume.)
Overall this is an excellent, erudite and very well written contribution to the thinking behind scenario planning, and is highly recommended to those in search of a comprehensive, theoretically informed account of that methodology, or indeed a broader sense of the importance and value of a normative orientation in discussing possible futures in any community.
A new paradigm for shaping our future.......2004-02-20
How do we achieve our futures? Is our future predetermined? How much of our future can we extrapolate from our past and our present? These are questions which James Ogilvy addresses in this book.
Ogilvy has an impressive background in both academia and the business world. Before co-founding the Global Business Network, he was a Professor of Philosophy at Yale and Williams, and a social researcher with the Stanford Research Institute (Values and Lifestyles Program). In Creating Better Futures he draws on all his experiences in these fields to outline what he sees as an emerging paradigm of how we view and shape society. This paradigm he calls the 'relational worldview': a view of the world which highlights relationships and interdependencies across and in spite of differences.
Ogilvy devotes a large part of the book to outlining his worldview - he identifies social structures which were dominant in the past & explains why they are no longer sufficient to provide us with the futures we want. Then he relates his argument for a new world view to shifts he sees in other social sciences, namely anthropology and literary criticism: the shift from objectivity to subjectivity, from things to symbols and relationships, from determinism to ambiguity and the existence of many different but equal possibilities which arise from meanings created and shared by and within groups.
Ogilvy points out that we already have at hand the essentials for creating a better tomorrow; the three key elements of players, values and tools we need are easily identified once we look at the world through the new paradigm of the relational worldview. He rejects the Religious Institutions of past eras, and the Governments and Marketplace of the modern era, as major players in future society. Placing individualist and collective societies at two opposite ends of the same spectrum of social organization, he identifies individuals within communities as the new actors in making decisions.
Similarly, the social values of this new paradigm are not found in the absolutism or determinism of religion, or the scientific objectivity of modernism. Nor are they found in the subjective relativism of postmodernism. Rather, values are found in the ethical pluralism of interrelated communities - an ongoing process whereby communities share their hopes and negotiate meanings as they try to get along with each other.
Recognizing that in an increasingly interdependent world there are a multiplicity of religions, races, standards, norms and values, Ogilvy's worldview identifies scenario-building as the tool best suited for creating better futures. Scenario-building is a process which provides a venue for a individuals and groups within a community to assess, articulate and negotiate its hopes and values for a better future. In the final chapters of the book Ogilvy gives a brief outline and some illustrations of the practice of scenario planning.
This is stimulating, though not easy, book to read. Adopting a new perspective is always challenging, and Ogilvy has included a lot of abstract philosophical, sociological and literary theories as he builds his case for a new worldview. However I chose this book because I wanted to read more than another "How to .." book - I wanted a book that would situate the technique of scenario-building in a wider social and global context. Ogilvy's well-considered paradigm provides a very good starting-point for us to contemplate as we try to negotiate our shrinking and increasingly interdependent world.
Determinism dies another little death.......2003-02-20
Compiled in part as a rebuttal to those who see the future through a dystopian lens (i.e. Orwell and company), Ogilvy offers this book as a refusal to accept either the notion that we are a doomed people, or that we must settle for "good enough" in contemplating progress and the future. He offers scenario building as the premiere tool for creating multiple, multicultural futures, based upon a "relational worldview". In doing so, Ogilvy tackles positivism and relativism, values and ethics, and the importance of true pluralism to creating better futures.
Ogilvy is well equipped for the task. With a doctorate in philosophy from Yale University, he has taught at that venerable institution, as well as at the University of Texas, and Williams College. He has been interested in the relationships between human values and consumer societies, and headed the "Values and Lifestyles" research project at the think tank, SRI International (formerly known as Stanford Research Institute). He worked in scenario building with Peter Schwartz for Royal Dutch/Shell, and later co-founded Global Business Network (GBN) with Schwartz and others. At GBN, he specializes in corporate scenario planning and research on futures in business environments. He has also authored, Living Without a Goal (1994), China's Futures (with Peter Schwartz - 2000), and Many Dimensional Man (1977), as well as numerous other publications through SRI.
Ogilvy fleshes out his relational worldview in the first part of the book, where he traces the move from mysticism to rationalism, and the evolving recognition of the inter-relatedness of the world today. Emphasizing the growth of elaborate networks of information and obviously competing visions of the future, Ogilvy constructs an extremely useful framework for beginning to consider potential futures in the world at large. He considers changing relations in religion, politics, and economics, in the struggle between individual and collectivist posturing and power, and weaves together multiple, shifting disciplinary views in the human sciences, and interprets these into a new view of the world that avoids the excesses of zealots and nihilists alike.
Ogilvy takes a chapter to discuss the application of particular features of this new world to normative scenario building. Recognizing the philosophical shift from things to symbols, the growing emphasis on relationships, the shift to narration from explanation, and the questionability of "timeless norms", Ogilvy cautions against wholesale subjective relativism, and instead holds out the possibility of what he calls the democratization of meaning, and paths towards ethical pluralism, that strives to unite the normal, or what exists, with the normative, what ought to be. In this model, ambiguity is always present, and the potential for multiple interpretations is rife - and a source of welcome creativity. Likewise, the idea of heterarchy, a sort of hyperlinkish anti-hierarchy, creates opportunities for multiplicity as well. Rather than trying to devise the One True Path based on immutable "laws" of nature, multiple paths are carved out that represent the shared hopes and dreams of community and communities.
By Part Four, entitled New Rules, New Tools, it is quite obvious how scenario building works hand in hand with the relational worldview and ethical pluralism Ogilvy has discussed. The rest of the book is devoted to the use of the scenario building tool, with examples of scenario building in action in first an educational context, and then a healthcare context. He closes by reiterating why even thinking about one best future is no more possible that thinking about one best way of being human, and encourages the visualization of a "rich ecology of species in the gardens of the sublime."
The strengths of this book are many; it is an extremely enjoyable read, with just enough additional sources to round it up to a "scholarly" tome. In the best scenario building tradition, the thesis of the book is cohesive and plausible, and is an especially refreshing departure from much of the scenario building literature, that too frequently focuses on business applications and barely questioned assumptions defined by buzzwords. Ogilvy stresses the need for passion and pluralism to co-exist, reminds us of the true potential of communal/social creativity, and suggests the possibility of exhilaration in imaginations unfettered. Creating Better Futures is aptly named, and offers an "Etch-a-Sketch" blueprint to be used over and over to do just that.
Determinism dies another little death.......2003-02-20
Compiled in part as a rebuttal to those who see the future through a dystopian lens (i.e. Orwell and company), Ogilvy offers this book as a refusal to accept either the notion that we are a doomed people, or that we must settle for "good enough" in contemplating progress and the future. He offers scenario building as the premiere tool for creating multiple, multicultural futures, based upon a "relational worldview". In doing so, Ogilvy tackles positivism and relativism, values and ethics, and the importance of true pluralism to creating better futures.
Ogilvy is well equipped for the task. With a doctorate in philosophy from Yale University, he has taught at that venerable institution, as well as at the University of Texas, and Williams College. He has been interested in the relationships between human values and consumer societies, and headed the "Values and Lifestyles" research project at the think tank, SRI International (formerly known as Stanford Research Institute). He worked in scenario building with Peter Schwartz for Royal Dutch/Shell, and later co-founded Global Business Network (GBN) with Schwartz and others. At GBN, he specializes in corporate scenario planning and research on futures in business environments. He has also authored, Living Without a Goal (1994), China's Futures (with Peter Schwartz - 2000), and Many Dimensional Man (1977), as well as numerous other publications through SRI.
Ogilvy fleshes out his relational worldview in the first part of the book, where he traces the move from mysticism to rationalism, and the evolving recognition of the inter-relatedness of the world today. Emphasizing the growth of elaborate networks of information and obviously competing visions of the future, Ogilvy constructs an extremely useful framework for beginning to consider potential futures in the world at large. He considers changing relations in religion, politics, and economics, in the struggle between individual and collectivist posturing and power, and weaves together multiple, shifting disciplinary views in the human sciences, and interprets these into a new view of the world that avoids the excesses of zealots and nihilists alike.
Ogilvy takes a chapter to discuss the application of particular features of this new world to normative scenario building. Recognizing the philosophical shift from things to symbols, the growing emphasis on relationships, the shift to narration from explanation, and the questionability of "timeless norms", Ogilvy cautions against wholesale subjective relativism, and instead holds out the possibility of what he calls the democratization of meaning, and paths towards ethical pluralism, that strives to unite the normal, or what exists, with the normative, what ought to be. In this model, ambiguity is always present, and the potential for multiple interpretations is rife - and a source of welcome creativity. Likewise, the idea of heterarchy, a sort of hyperlinkish anti-hierarchy, creates opportunities for multiplicity as well. Rather than trying to devise the One True Path based on immutable "laws" of nature, multiple paths are carved out that represent the shared hopes and dreams of community and communities.
By Part Four, entitled New Rules, New Tools, it is quite obvious how scenario building works hand in hand with the relational worldview and ethical pluralism Ogilvy has discussed. The rest of the book is devoted to the use of the scenario building tool, with examples of scenario building in action in first an educational context, and then a healthcare context. He closes by reiterating why even thinking about one best future is no more possible that thinking about one best way of being human, and encourages the visualization of a "rich ecology of species in the gardens of the sublime."
The strengths of this book are many; it is an extremely enjoyable read, with just enough additional sources to round it up to a "scholarly" tome. In the best scenario building tradition, the thesis of the book is cohesive and plausible, and is an especially refreshing departure from much of the scenario building literature, that too frequently focuses on business applications and barely questioned assumptions defined by buzzwords. Ogilvy stresses the need for passion and pluralism to co-exist, reminds us of the true potential of communal/social creativity, and suggests the possibility of exhilaration in imaginations unfettered. Creating Better Futures is aptly named, and offers an "Etch-a-Sketch" blueprint to be used over and over to do just that.
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Sustainable Development and Innovation in the Energy Sector
Ulrich Steger ,
Wouter Achterberg ,
Kornelis Blok ,
Henning Bode ,
Walter Frenz ,
Corinna Gather ,
Gerd Hanekamp ,
Dieter Imboden ,
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Thomas H.W. Ziesemer
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ASIN: 354023103X |
Book Description
Almost every energy scenario assumes an enormous growth in the demand for energy in the coming decades. Meanwhile, at international conferences and other venues, the primary concern is massive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, especially of the CO2 produced by fossil-fuel energy consumption. Experts also point out the political risk of depending on petroleum and remind us of the fact that resources are not inexhaustible. This timely book explores: how these conflicting scenarios could be reconciled; how can we shape a more sustainable energy system from the existing one; and possible technological progress and innovations to enable a brighter future. It also addresses the reality that there exists no consensus on the extent to which innovations can really contribute to reconciling ever-growing energy consumption, availability of resources and the environment, and the structural demands on any energy system.
Book Description
The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to make decisions today by studying the possibilities of tomorrow. When that tomorrow was more predictable and less fraught with uncertainty, those possibilities had a good chance of being the right ones. Now, however, the only given constant in a world of complexity is change itself. In an environment where information technology is driving an information revolution, and where the rules can be rewritten with breathtaking speed, planning can seem more based on luck than foresight.
There are methods for coping with unpredictability. The Scenario planning techniques described in this book will help to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Based on Gill Ringland's previous book Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future, this updated and expanded version focuses specifically on scenarios in public policy. The use of scenarios to create a framework for a shared vision of the future, by promoting discussion and building consensus outside a business environment, is examined. Ringland also looks at the similarities between organizations which have used scenarios successfully - such as the importance of communication via storyline and image.
Scenarios in Public Policy and its companion, Scenario Planning in Business are both practical paperback books that each expand on specific areas of Scenario Planning. They will appeal to managers looking to learn about and apply a particular aspect of scenario planning.
Reviews of Gill Ringland's prevoius work:
"Nobody can ignore the future. This book is a must-read for any manager aspiring to put scenarios into practice."
Arie de Geus, Former Director of Shell International Petroleum and author of 'The Living Company'
"(Gill Ringland) offers us a mechanism by which to bring structure to information technology and other forms of complexity, offering us the vital ability to understand the dynamics of change."
Oliver Sparrow, Chatham House Forum
Customer Reviews:
Clear and useful.......2003-08-06
This is a very straightforward guide to scenario planning and scenario thinking in the development of public policy and in the public sector. It is relatively short, clearly written, and has excellent references to material on the Internet as well as a good bibliography.
It has four parts. The first two provide case studies of the use of scenarios in public policy and in public sector organizations respectively. Part 3 is a step-bystep guide to the process of scenario planning. Part 4 is titled Scenario Thinking and describes the role of scenarios in catalyzing organizational learning.
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Crisis Management and Decision Making: Simulation Oriented Scenarios
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Environmental Risk Analysis
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""This is probably the most comprehensive treatment of this subject that I have seen. The authors have presented an approach and concept that far surpasses anything currently available."" - Jeffrey Vincoli, CSP, CHCM *Examines problems such as transport, burial/storage, monitoring, and spillage - and tells how to overcome them *Provides tables, graphs, and formulas for risk analysis and risk management strategies *Explains complex statistical techniques in clear, basic terms
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ASIN: 0792336240 |
Book Description
The future place of medicines in health care is both exciting and uncertain. With an aging population, an increasing number of chronic sick, a growing range of treatment options and a developing European market, the one certainty is that medication patterns will change radically over the next 15 years or so. How the future might look, in terms of quality, volume and cost of pharmacotherapy, is the subject of this report.
Four scenarios for the future are set out, all of which take account of already visible trends.
Sobriety in sufficiency envisages rational and restrained consumption patterns.
Risk of avoidance is dominated by fears of iatrogenic harm and hence minimal drug use. The central feature of
Technology on demand, in contrast, is confidence in technological progress.
Free market unfettered, finally, is marked by a Europe without frontiers and minimal state intervention.
The reader is encouraged to reflect without preconceptions on the future of medicines in health care. No ready-made answers are offered; rather, a wealth of information and analysis is provided which serves to underpin decision making and policy development, not just by central government but also by every institution concerned with the role of medicines in health care.
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The Future of Public Health: A Scenario Study, Scenario Report Commissioned by the Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios
Scenario Committee on the Future of Public Health , and
E.W. Roscam Abbing
Manufacturer: Springer
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
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ASIN: 0792318145 |
Book Description
How can the public health system best be organised in the future and which factors are the main determinants thereof?
These are key questions in the scenario report
The Future of Public
Health: a Scenario Study. The report is the result of a study commissioned by the Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios and carried out by a research team of the TNO Institute of Preventive Health Care and the STG Scenario Committee on the Future of Public Health. The report focuses on activities in collective prevention of diseases, generally known as primary prevention.
The future images developed make use of two examples, the control of infectious diseases and public health for the elderly. In designing those scenarios, two sets of possible trends were combined: centralisation versus decentralisation and nationalisation versus privatisation.
These combinations resulted in three scenarios; a local government scenario, a central government scenario, and a private enterprise scenario. The consequences of these future alternatives were developed in terms of their effect on organisation, policy control, financing, information supply, expertise and effectiveness.
Although the report primarily focuses on the public health system in the Netherlands, the analysis of the processes examined, and the alternative scenarios based on them are also thought-provoking for readers throughout the world.
Book Description
Which developments can be expected to take place in the dental health of the Dutch population in the decades to come, and what are the influential factors? What effects might the changing supply of dental professionals, the additional substitution of responsibilities from dentists to dental hygienists and the possible reforms in health care insurance have on the nation's oral status? These are some of the central questions discussed in this report by the Scenario Committee and the research group. For this purpose, the Committee developed a computer simulation model of dental health care which was used to analyze future scenarios.
The future scenarios described in this report clearly show that a number of crucial decisions must be taken if dental health care is to remain accessible and available for all sections of the population in the future.
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