Book Description
Recent research in the field of business strategy has shown that strategic flexibility can be achieved through a scenario planning perspective for long term competition and performance. The authors have drawn upon examples and cases to develop a new model for scenario planning that is closely integrated with strategy. They argue that the concept of scenario planning is as much an art as a practical management tool.
Customer Reviews:
Nuts and bolts of scenario planning.......2003-08-06
I saw an review in Harvard Business School and I fully agree with them: "...serious but yet it's the friendliest introduction to the nuts and bolts of scenario planning that you are likely to find..." I really recommend this book to everyone who wants to explore, understand and have an impact on the future.
Practical tools for future strategy.......2003-05-19
This is an eminently practical book on scenario and strategy development. The language is simple, straight-forward with many examples, tools and anecdotes. In a verbal style, with lots of figures and bullet point lists, the five chapters in a way resembles lectures.
As faculty and lecturer at the Norwegian School of Management I find this book a perfect supplement in the curriculum to the two classics: P. Schwartz' "Art of the long view" and van Heijden "Scenarios". This book occupies a kind of middle-position between Schwartz' very popular and narrative account and van Heijden's more rational-academic discourse, which some practitioners find a hard read. Not like this one. There's not much deep philosophy either, as in J. Ogilvys recent "Creating Better Futures". The chapter on scenario planning in practice (#3) contains loads of simple, informative examples, written much shorter and to the point, than G. Ringland's three books on scenarios with much-detailed cases, repetitions and a weak structure.
In short - this book is a toolbox with instructions manual. As the Swedish authors Lindgren and Bandhold themselves say in the book; "Get yourself a toolbox". If you, as a manager or consultant want to learn, update or expand your portfolio of future oriented strategy tools, this one is The Choice.
Average customer rating:
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Scenarios for Technical Communication: Critical Thinking and Writing
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Similar Items:
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Strategies for Business and Technical Writing (5th Edition)
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The Non-Designer's Design Book
ASIN: 0205275249 |
Book Description
In today's fast-paced work environment, where e-mail, fax machines, and FedEx have transformed the way people communicate, the ability to write succinctly and effectively on the job can mean the difference between gaining or losing business. Based on the belief that real world simulations of workplace writing situations provide the best opportunities for improvement, this book invites readers to consider actual relationships, situations, and the intangible elements that affect workplace writing. The tips and techniques offered in this book help readers develop critical thinking abilities in conjunction with occasions to practice realistic workplace writing. Individual scenarios of various lengths and levels of complexity provide abundant opportunities for readers to practice technical writing forms and learn about important principles. Technical writers, business people, writers and workers training for such positions.
Book Description
Scenario planning allows companies to move away from linear thinking and better understand external change. Eight years (and 30,000 copies) after publication Scenarios is still acknowledged as the definitive work in the field. Now, Kees van der Heijden brings his bestseller up to date, following up on his original case studies and adding significant new material. The Second Edition changes focus slightly by providing more in-depth analysis and application of the concept of the 'strategic conversation'. While maintaining the underlying rigour of the first edition, van der Heijden revisits the text to make it far more practical and accessible, and in doing so gives you the tools you need to set out and negotiate a successful future course for your organization in the face of significant uncertainty.
Customer Reviews:
Comprehensive and Practical.......2007-03-08
I have found this book a delightful and enlightening read. I've been a fan of Scenario Planning since reading Peter Swartz's "Art of the Long View." This if the first book on the subject that i've read that actually provides the level of detail i wanted to see such that i could begin to practice scenario planning and incorporate the tools and language into my work environment. Great stuff.
Packed with Knowledge!.......2005-07-14
Many business books provide just enough information to whet executives' appetites for more advice accompanied by high consulting fees. Author Kees van der Heijden has written an exception. His comprehensive volume puts scenario building in historical context, explains its relationship to forecasting and tells you how to introduce scenario planning to your organization. Once you understand your corporate identity and your fundamental "Business Idea," he says, you can establish and enact informative scenarios that will prepare your company for several different versions of what lies ahead. In that way, scenario planning generates better decision making. We strongly recommend this book to top managers, strategists and planners, especially those who sense they're making decisions on the fly without having a structure for thinking deeply about future implications.
Written in stone, not in sand.......2005-05-27
I agree with the other reviewers, it is not a business novel. Fifteen pages per hour is a good score. However it is worth every minute. I recognise the strategy meetings that indeed most often strand in tactics at the very best. The idea of the Business Idea and the huge importance Kees lays on the need for an original, differentiating business element was for me the most important lesson. I am working for a 50 year old company, active in a domain that is under severe pressure of a rapidly changing business model,
after years and years of 'innovation' around the same theme. This work was an eye opener.
More than just scenarios, a book on strategic thinking & mgt.......2005-02-18
Disclaimer: This review is one of the assignments in a graduate course on forecasting.
First, I should say that this is an amazing book, but not necessarily an easy read. However, it repays the effort needed. A previous reviewer commented on the difficulty of the writing. I find the same thing, but it can be marked down to the Dutch/German writing style, which is both compact and tends toward longish sentences. Essentially this means that some sentences have to be read twice before the idea is absorbed. Let me be clear, this activity is well worth it!
This book is more than just about scenarios, offering a convincing and comprehensive understanding of how scenarios can and should be used as a form of strategic management.
Along the way, the reader is treated to clear and helpful explanations of such things as "the business idea of an organization" (ch. 3), "articulation of the business idea" in scenarios (ch. 8), "option planning" (ch. 11), and "the management of change" (ch. 12), among others.
Overall, scenarios as practiced and understood by Van Der Heijden (who spent 35 years at Shell and 6 years as an academic before writing this book), are useful tools. They are foremost organizational tools which are best used by entire organizations, not the solitary planner at their workbench.
If you want to understand how the future can be more accurately perceived (though not predicted), and how organizational learning can actually happen, then this is a worthy addition to the library of any management strategist or student of the future.
Great content but writing style makes for hard reading.......2002-10-17
Frankly I'm surprised at all the glowing reports without someone mentioning that this isn't the easiest book to read. Not that the language is difficult. Rather the sentences are long and often unclear, and there are too many reference to past and future chapters.
I'd suggest reading a few paragraphs before purchasing the book. You might find that this book is not for you -- it didn't do anything for me. I gave up half way through the book, maybe there was more value in the second half.
Book Description
"Scenarios are now a part of every successful manager's toolkit. This book is the first comprehensive guide to the latest developments in scenario thinking written by today's leading practitioners in the field." -Napier Collyns, a pioneer of scenario planning at Dutch/Shell now Managing Director, Gloal Business Network (GBN) "In twenty years of helping companies create and plan for their futures, I have never come across a book that dealt with the use of scenario-based planning as comprehensively as this one." -David Kelley CEO, IDEO Product Development the creators of the Apple Mouse "This book is the greatest reference today on scenario planning-the preeminent tool for those who believe that the future belongs to those with the imagination to create it. The combination of scenario planning and strategy formulation can be a wondrous right brain process that galvanizes teams with a compelling vision and common purpose." -David E. Schnedler Director, Corporate Planning Sun Microsystems, Inc. "Organizations must create intellectual and organizational tension around distinctly different views of the future. Learning from the Future demonstrates why scenarios are ideally suited to generate such tension and how to use scenario learning as a steppingstone to superior strategies." -Richard Pascale, Associate Fellow of Oxford University and author of Managing on the Edge: How the Smartest Companies Use Conflict to Stay Ahead "An invaluable guide to the mind-stretching benefits of scenarios that are fully embedded in the strategic thinking process. It should be required reading for any management team embarking on scenario development so they can realize the benefits and evade the pitfalls." -George Day, Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor and Director of the Huntsman Center for Global Competition and Innovation Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Customer Reviews:
Back to the Future.......2004-01-23
Learning From the Future, by Fahey and Randall, is a very comprehensive how-to manual for creating foresight scenarios and turning them into action. The use of scenarios to formulate a vision of the future and how best to be prepared for it has been a major strategy tool since the RAND Corporation, the military think tank, started using this methodology in the 50's to plan for "unthinkable" contingencies.
The collection of authors recounts the steps vital to a good scenario: identify key current forces affecting the organization, involve all levels of management (so they "own" the scenario results), assure the scenarios are linked to crucial decision processes, do not slip into trying to forecast the "most likely" future, tell a story, link the scenario elements logically (perhaps graphically) together. Chapter 4 is especially good at describing how to create matrices of outcomes with sliding scales of driving forces such as the price of gas or protectionist versus open markets. Both "future forward" (present day forward, or inductive) and "future backward" (working from the future backwards, deductive) scenario types are explored, as are computer-assisted methods.
Every conceivable element that could be factored into a scenario is covered and categorized in the book, including political trends, natural disasters, pricing and cultural trends, as well as the classic SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats). If there is one fault to the book, it is that the case studies could be more poignant - instead of distinct organizations with palpable products and threats, these tend to be generic (e.g., a "high tech" company producing "electronics"); this exsanguination of content leads to some bland examples and occasional lapses into platitudes (e.g., "leave enough time for evaluation"). In contrast, another scenario book, The Sixth Sense, by van der Heijden, glows with colorful case studies. When I created and played in scenarios at RAND, we found that adding color and story helped the process immeasurably: we created posters and put them on the wall, we got into character like actors do, we generated future headlines and stories - not just generically, but for a specific date and paper (the Washington Post was a favorite) - to make the process seem more relevant and the results more richly detailed. The book could also have more precise examples of insights and corporate changes that resulted from scenarios as evidence for their worth - this text is clearly meant for the already converted. That said, the very extent and thoroughness of the material, its coverage of elements often left out of other texts, and its provision of checklists for novice scenario builders, make it a must-read. The use of scenarios has a long track record of success, even in decades past when the rate of change and pace of market forces was more leisurely. In this day and age, when markets can evolve every six months, the use of scenarios to enable an organization to be proactive rather than reactive is more important than ever, and this text is one of the most exhaustive that exists on this important topic.
Resource for Futures Learning.......2002-03-22
Fahey and Randall have brought together an excellent team of authors who have given numerous suggestions of what to do and what not to do in developing scenario learning in organizations and institutions. From making it unmistakable that top CEOs must be involved in the process, to offering an outline for a scenario learning workshop, suggestions for scenario learning team members and cautions about the pitfalls of using scenarios, the authors have given their insights and visions for successful futures planning for organizations.
The smart leader uses scenarios as an important tool in the executive toolkit. Just as good decision-making is not done in a vacuum, but rather is done in the light of a good deal of research and information gathering, so even scenario planning is prefaced by homework, preparation. Elements of history, traditions, branding, decision-making methodology, personnel, key decision factors and key external forces are all pieces of the background necessary for scenario planning. Scenario Learning is not just one more thing one must do because some higher up says it must be done. It is not just a task. All decision-making of any magnitude needs to cease until the scenario planning sheds light on the decision. This process is the best of strategic planning and should not be set aside while the company chooses its strategy. "Scenarios are most valuable when they are understood to be movies of an evolving story, not a snapshot of a specific point in time" (p. 12).
Several types of scenarios are offered. Scenario learning, in the context of Systems Thinking, is a powerful tool for moving into a changed reality. Systems thinking is the engine of dynamic scenario planning. In any system it must be understood that each element in a system acts or reacts to every other element in the system (elements such as events, patterns of behavior and contextual structure). Seeing the system rather than individual elements when making a decision means making decisions with a greater possibility of successful growth.
"Scenario Learning is a search for an understanding of how the future could change, and how an organization could thrive by adapting to a number of particular changed circumstances." Scenario learning identifies what the indicators of change are, and what decisions and actions must be taken today to be ready to survive and win tomorrow and in the years to come" (p. xi). What follows in the book does indeed make this clear.
Conceptual Case Histories of How to Learn from Scenarios.......2000-05-11
If you talk to someone about using scenarios to think about the future, chances are that the other person will nod her/his head in agreement with whatever you have to say. That surface agreement, however, will be misleading because the other person is probably thinking about a totally different kind of scenario thinking than you are.
Learning from the Future helps overcome that misunderstanding by explaining a large number of ways that scenarios can be used. The book contains 25 chapters which each look at a different aspect of scenario development and subsequent thinking.
Three chapters look at what scenario learning is. Seven chapters explore basic approaches to constructing scenarios. Eight chapters describe how to apply scenarios in different contexts, like competitor evaluations, technology investing, making public policy decisions, and considering customers. The final section looks at how to create the right organizational environment for making and using scenarios for learning.
You will benefit from reading the thoughts of many of the world's top experts and users of scenario learning including Peter Schwartz, Kees van der Keijden, Ian Wilson, Liam Fahey and Robert Randall. It is a great line-up, and what they have to say is good food for thought.
If you would like a good introduction to scenario learning, this is an excellent place to start because the perspectives that are captured are unusually broad and appropriate.
This book belongs in the business library of every business decision-maker. When an important question arises, you can use this book as a resource to think through how you might best use scenarios to create a better result. Enjoy!
Forewarned is forearmed.......1999-06-08
Many, if not most, corporations try to utilize scenario planning in their strategy process. All too frequently, these efforts become routine: what if we increase (decrease) marketing budgets by 10%? What if raw material prices go up (down)? It's all pretty warm beer given the pace of business change every company faces.
This book shows how to do it right. The editors have shaped the contributions of 24 experts iinto a thorough, rigorous book covering all the vital aspects of scenarios. The reader will find clear discussions of what scenarios should be and how organizations can use them to "learn from the future." There are chapters on tools and techniques (like simulation models), advice on implementation, and case studies from both the private and public sector. The last chapter, "Twenty Common Pitfalls in Scenario Planning" is especially valuable.
Forewarned is forearmed. Any manager who does not want to go into the future blind and defenseless must read this book.
Puts forth a powerful way for peering into the future........1999-03-22
This impressive work shows how to harness imagination and strategic management techniques to create scenarios that simulate future opportunities and threats. Shows how to use scenario building, drawing on case studies and insights of 26 expert scenario developers. Presents a new system of scenario learning, bringing together strategic management, scenario technology, teamwork, creativity, and decision-making skills. This is a meaty and informative book.
Book Description
Work is bad enough, but what if things go really wrong? The Worst-Case Scenario authors come to the rescue with expert advice for surviving dozens of nightmare on-the-job scenarios, whether in the office or on the loading dock. From savage bike messengers to a bag of pretzels stuck in the lunchroom vending machine, peril is everywhere. Learn how to sneak out of a meeting, treat a deep-fryer burn, and survive a stockroom avalanche. Expertly remove a dent from the company car, extract a tie caught in the photocopier, and survive a workplace romance. Hands-on, step-by-step instructions guide you through these and other crises that can strike between 9 and 5, or on the swing shift. With an appendix of useful interview phrases, a career-path decoder, instructions for playing Jargon Bingo, and more, this is the one desk reference you can't live without.
Customer Reviews:
Hilarious!.......2007-01-04
BUY THIS! It is soooooooo funny. I used to keep it at work for a good laugh when things got stressful. Awesome!
Boring , Obvious and predictable.......2005-04-22
I was very disappointed with this listenandlive title. All the advice and tips are so obvious and just statements of common sense. In fact many things seem contrived and the advice given does not seem practical at all. A lot of it is obsolete like the chapter about emails.
Right in the middle of .............2005-02-18
I bought the "original" "The Worst Case Scenario Survival Handbook". I loved its humor and so I gave this one a try. I cant say it's bad. However, it's somehow much more serious than the original one, thus less humorous and fun. The problem is: it's not indepth nor detailed enough to cover, in my opinion as a white collar for over 15 years, 1/5 of the common difficulties in an office.
In short, if you really wanna improve your survival opportunities in your job, there are many better alternatives in a bookstore. If you just wanna have fun, this is definitely not a good choice. Therefore, not recommended. If you really wanna buy it, I sincerely suggest you to read the "See sample pages" here on Amazon for a quick look of what those "tips" refer to.
Somewhat Amusing.......2004-11-16
Work is bad enough, but what if things go really wrong? In this latest title from the bestselling series, the Worst-Case Scenario authors come to the rescue with expert advice for surviving dozens of nightmare on-the-job scenarios, whether in the office or on the loading dock.
Everyone has had dreadful bosses, scary or annoying co-workers, and everyone has felt that they arent' qualified for at least one job for which they are interviewing. Fewer of us get to sneak out of meetings.. although many would love to!, or how to get out of various small places one could get trapped in. Things you may learn from this book are how to get jobs without experience, survive in a storeroom "avalanche," escape from a boring meeting, what to do if your tie gets caught in the paper shredder, and many more.
IT HAS IT ALL.......2004-01-10
THIS IS A GREAT BOOK AND SERIES. IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR SOMETHING SIMILIAR ABOUT WAITING TABLES, CHECK OUT CLAMCHOWDER.BIZ. THIS BOOK IS FANTASTIC.
Product Description
For over 30 years, the Royal Dutch/Shell Group has used these scenarios to identify business risks and opportunities in ways forecasts cannot. Now for the first time these scenerios are available to the public. This book portrays three plausible futures with contrasting economic, political, and regulatory features and distinct implications for the energy system.
Customer Reviews:
Too much "design" not enough ideas.......2007-09-14
Shell was one of the earliest innovators in the area of scenario planning, and they have done extremely well by this method. Quite a few excellent authors have come out of Shell, such as Kees van der Heijden's books Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation and The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios.
This book is disappointing for a number of reasons. This is meant to be a popular book, with lots of nice visual effects. Sadly, the content could and the unwieldy shape and heft reduced to a thin paperback, and it should have been. The binding itself is atrocious, and simply does not work. Sigh.
That said, there is a good amount of conceptual material here to chew on for the upcoming years, though it will likely not remain viable all the way until 2025. There are three main configurations plotted in the book: low trust globalization, "open doors", and "flags". In LTG, security and market efficiencies are the overriding factors driving the shape of things to come, and social cohesion or the "force of community" is weaker than the other two forces. In open doors, social cohesion and market incentives combine for a more fruitful outcome (both economically and socially). In flags, community and security overcome market incentives and a more distrustful and nationalistic scenario emerges, the darkest of the three broad global scenarios.
These broad possible areas are then reflected through a wide range of issues from demography and migrations, to African futures, to climate change and biodiversity, and to legal and regulatory environments, among others.
Good content, flawed format.
Essential reading about the forces shaping the world.......2006-11-30
The Shell Global Scenarios is an outstanding example of the craft of scenario design as well as a creative and insightful look at the forces shaping the world. The text is well written. The graphics are memorable and thought provoking. The commentaries by leading thinkers from various fields add depth. Scenario design can take many forms and be adapted for many purposes. The Shell approach is arguably the best for understanding and speculating about issues that cut across multiple socio-economic, technical, and political dimensions. Modern scenario design began with Herman Kahn and Anthony Wiener's "The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation"(MacMillan, 1967). While we can be entertained by the misdirection of many of their speculative conclusions, their framework set the stage for much of the scenario work that has followed. My only regret about the excellent Shell effort is that Pierre Wack is given credit for coining the term "scenario." While Wack is a giant in this field, the credit for introducing "scenario" in the modern use of the term should go to Kahn and Wiener.
Book Description
This book helps managers move beyond the idea that the future of business will resemble the past and allows them to use scenarios to imagine multiple perspectives. The concepts of organizational realities, experience, and beliefs are explored to encourage and embrace change in business organizations for a successful future.
Download Description
"This book is about organizational survival: the reasons why organizations do not always survive, and what can be done about it. Survival means creating value for stakeholders, and the survival problem starts with uncertainty, change and the need for organizations to adapt to shifting needs and market conditions. The key question is 'Why are organizations slow to change and adapt?' Unsuccessful organizations are distinguished by their failure to overcome thinking and behavioural flaws at personal, organizational and community levels. In this book, we explain what these flaws are and how the scenario approach helps senior managers and organizations to overcome them. Our approach is based on reasoning, research, real world observations - and a long track record developing scenario-based thinking, combining the most effective elements of the many scenario approaches that have been tried over time.
Customer Reviews:
Insightful!.......2004-03-02
This book disserves itself by purporting to be merely about scenario planning, although it covers that subject thoroughly. In fact, it's one of the most lucid, interesting examinations of fortune and folly you will ever read. The recapitulation of disastrous episodes at a handful of once-great companies shows just how little inclined the gods are to spare the proud. Closed minds and entrenched habits of thought managed to afflict even such a venturesome New Economy firm as Yahoo! Originality and experimentation bless even companies in humdrum industries, such as packaging. Captivating anecdotes and illustrations are, in fact, the meat of the book. The scenario planning analysis, while solid, is less convincing than the cases themselves. At times, the book shows the weaknesses that are probably inevitable when so many authors share creation. It tends to meander and, now and then, loses its way in jargon-choked thickets. But, we assure you, the clarity of the cases redeems it and makes it valuable.
Scenario conversations as agents of change.......2003-08-06
The key theme of this book is that the appropriate use of scenario thinking is a highly effective way of catalyzing organizational change and, in particular, minimizing the risk that the organization will suffer due to learning disabilities such as 'group think' or a variety of other flaws in organizational thinking.
The focus is therefore on the process by which the management group can improve their ability to shape their future, through the way in which they engage with the creation of scenarios, and in strategic conversations about their implications in the context of the 'business idea' (competitive stance and advantages) of the organization.
This book represents a consolidation and further exploration of ideas first put forward in van der Heijden's Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. As a successor, it does not have the impact of the first book, and it goes into issues of learning disabilities to a level of detail that can be tedious to those who are familiar with these issues. None the less, it is very useful in reinforcing a sound appreciation of the value of scenarios and the importance of the process by which they are generated and used.
There are very useful summaries at the end of each chapter and at the end of the book. My main criticism is that the authors do not seem to have quite worked out whether they were writing a practical guide for business people or a text for students.
Book Description
It's practical. It's easy-to-use. It works. SCENARIO PLANNING HANDBOOK: DEVELOPING STRATEGIES IN UNCERTAIN TIMES reveals the most effective stategy techniques available to help you, a decision-maker, plan for the future. And with this strategy textbook, you won't just get theory. You'll also get the most up-to-date data, analysis, and expert insights that show you how to succeed. Don't let uncertainty paralyze you or force a bad decision. Let SCENARIO PLANNING HANDBOOK: DEVELOPING STRATEGIES IN UNCERTAIN TIMES guide you using the decision-making practices that are proven to work.
Average customer rating:
- Insightful!
- NOT Recommended
- Almost everything you need to know about scenario planning
- Great Scenario Working Book
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Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future
Gill Ringland
Manufacturer: Wiley
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Binding: Hardcover
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ASIN: 047001881X |
Book Description
Scenario planning has received much top-level interest in the corporate sector as a way of realistically assessing the long-term future. Yet seldom are line managers included in initiatives, even though their exposure to customers and competitors means they often pick up subtle signals that are the first alert of changes to the operating environment. By exposing line managers to alternative scenarios, organizations can reduce the risk of ignoring the small environmental changes that are the advance warning for major discontinuities. Now completely updated in a new edition, the message of this practical, hands-on guide is that scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but powerful weapons in managing the uncertainties of the future. Taking a conceptual rather than mathematical approach, it includes a wealth of case studies, checklists, early indicators and examples.
Customer Reviews:
Insightful!.......2004-06-04
Sure, you worry about what changes the future will bring for your business. But do you have a sensible and logical way to respond to the uncertainties that keep you up at night? If not, this intriguing book will set you on the right path. British corporate strategist Gill Ringland offers persuasive evidence that scenario planning is a worthwhile pursuit, and she recounts in useful detail her own experiences and those of large corporations looking for an edge up on the future. The book is organized in four sections: the links between scenarios and strategic planning, a rundown on different theoretical approaches (French School, Futures Group, CSM, Copenhagen Institute, and more), a set of eight case histories and several examples of actual, step-by-step scenarios. While Ringland's writing is inconsistent and can be dense and jargony, she nevertheless offers plenty of useful information that serves as a path for anyone embarking on scenario planning. We suggest this book to managers and corporate strategists seeking ways to deal with the uncertain future.
NOT Recommended.......2001-09-05
I bought this and the Van Der Heijden book together and found this book very frustrating to read. There is some good practical writing in the first section of the book, which describes the basics of scenario planning and how scenario planning and strategic planning work together. If this is where the book stopped, it would have rated much higher. The rest of the book is almost a total write-off though.
The examples and case studies read like a patched-together compilation of other people's writings. There are huge differences in style, voice, and detail which make the examples difficult to compare and contrast. Actually, it makes them difficult to read. The balance of the book would really have benefitted from a re-write and some further research into the examples and case studies.
If you are interested in developing and using scenarios check out the Van Der Heijden book - "Scenarios - the Art of Strategic Conversation." Also, "the Art of the Long View" by Peter Scwartz is a great introduction to developing and using scenarios.
Almost everything you need to know about scenario planning.......2000-12-07
Most books on scenario planning either entertain us with their stories of possible futures or delve into intensely dull details of scenario construction. Ringland's book has the virtue of avoiding these two extremes. This wide-ranging book will suit both newcomers and veterans of scenario planning. Each kind of reader can pick out what they need from the four sections. Part I introduces scenario planning from the point of view of strategic planning at ICL in the UK. Ringland shows how scenarios can be linked to strategic planning and how they can be used for learning or to influence public opinion. Part II take a more theoretical approach, outlining eleven different methods, including those used by the European Commission, Global Business Network, and SRI, as well as computer-driven simulations. Part III presents eight case studies, allowing the reader to see the process as it was applied to British Airways, Cable and Wireless, the UK's National Health Service, and Shell. Finally, Part IV shows examples of scenarios including those developed by the author's company ICL, and MIT's scenarios for 21st Century organizations.
Hardly anyone these days has the time to read a 400-page book. Fortunately, Ringland has structured Scenario Planning to make it easy to pick out just what the reader needs. The variety of approaches explained and the range of case studies and examples is like a large menu from which the reader can choose just the tidbits desired. A well-balanced reading of selected chapters will provide all the essential elements needed to understand scenario planning. On the other hand, the book's main shortcoming arises from its breadth. No one approach is explained in sufficient detail to create a systematic and thorough understanding of any particular method. Such detail can make for tedious reading and may be unnecessary. But if you want to drill down to minute details, skimming Ringland's book will be a great warm-up before tackling Van der Heijen's book.
Great Scenario Working Book.......2000-11-25
Aimed at business strategists or consultants, this book provides many deep, usable tools, examples, and approaches assisting the development of more robust projects and organizations across a range of futures.
The attractively illustrated, deep resources span:
++ Part 1 (a standalone "book")- history and background of scenario planning (SP); current state of the art; ICL use of SP in projects; examples of SP (including 2 day workshop at world-class Manufacturing Systems Integration Research Institute at Loughborough University, UK); and learning.
++ Part 2- describes various approaches - BASICS, CSM, STRAT*X, Copenhagen Institute, EC,, French School, Futures Group, Global Business Network, NCI, and SRI.
++Part 3- case studies for range of approaches used across sectors- British Airways, Cable & Wireless, ECRC, Electrolux, UK National Health Service, KNRONE, Shell and United Distillers.
++ Part 4- scenarios- ICL, the Internet, Telecoms industry, Shell, Hemingford, and 21st Century Organizations.
Despite covering a very broad and deep content, the structure, style, and excellent use of sidebars/charts/lists/ and "glue" (or linking text) make this a very approachable working book & reference source for the scenario planning. The emphasis is on practicality, rather than theory, as befitting an author with significant practical experience. The only complaint, is that sometimes too much detail is given (reading a bit like a lab-report- the author's a physicist, after all!).
Overall, a great practical text which goes very well with the high quality and more abstract view (less case studies, more emphasis on process) in Kee Van Der Heijden's "Scenario's- The Art of Strategic Conversation" (Wiley, 1997, ISBN 0471966398).
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Scenario-Driven Planning: Learning to Manage Strategic Uncertainty
Nicholas C. Georgantzas , and
William Acar
Manufacturer: Quorum Books
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Essentials of Strategic Management (4th Edition)
ASIN: 0899308252 |
Book Description
This new Quorum book deals with a subject that has gradually emerged to the forefront of planning theory. Scenario-driven planning (SDP) is a new technology for management design that empowers organizations to address the various uncertainties that beset them. In recognition of the increasing turbulence of the business environment, this new technology for strategic management is attracting a great deal of attention. However, most present approaches to SDP fall short of the full power of modern management practices. Buttressed by an extensive index and reference list, this book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario approach. Written for practicing managers and consultants distrustful of quick fixes, as well as for academics and students in the field, the book starts with the present business malaise of developed economies and follows it with a presentation of the historical antecedents of the origins of SDP. It then gradually develops a modern treatment of the scenario approach, starting with its origins, proceeding with graduated case studies (simple applications first, followed by "standard" applications), and finally concluding with discussion of the theoretical issues and emerging trends that underlie the scenario approach. Drawing on their combined theoretical and consulting experiences, the authors enumerate the cognitive biases and other obstacles to the management of strategic uncertainty. They present a method that goes beyond the enumeration of judgemental "environmental" scenarios, and introduce simple as well as more sophisicated methods for computing strategic decision scenarios. Called CSM (Comprehensive Situation Mapping), this analytical approach to strategic planning allows managerial thinking to soar past the bureaucratic side of planning in order to take advantage of creative dialectics. Because of its computational and dialectic features, the CSM approach can be used by astute corporate leaders as an opportunity for promoting organizational learning.
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