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Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.
Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson
Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.
Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.
Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it's something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.
The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.
Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."
In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson
Book Description
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.
Customer Reviews:
Very thoughtful and enlightening book.......2007-10-02
Taleb has a winner here. The book brings a new slant to what really drives almost every trend. Often the stock traders and predictors of political events are not just wrong, but dead wrong. The reasons for these mistakes and others are explained in entertaining fashion in this book "The Black Swan".
Mr. Taleb Should Stay Away from Theology.......2007-10-01
I found this book highly entertaining. I love the way he writes, his sense humor. But I was very disappointed to see him press repeatedly his complete rejection of the Christian/Judeo understanding of the history of man, the history of God's plan for man's salvation. Ok, he has not the gift of faith. That's ok, perhaps one day. But when I purchase a book on the markets, economics, etc. I expect just that. Not repeated remarks (page 100, 118, etc.) about the non-existence of miracles, how the human race is a mere accident. Why should he be selling this ? Why should I accept his assertions ? On faith ? He's a good man wrapped in a self-contradiction of skeptiscism. I just wish his editor had filtered these things out from the final MS.
Hard to Read.......2007-09-29
I read a chapter of this book. It seemed to me it was trying to make political points (and therefore I found it untrustworthy) also it was just hard to read because I found it boring.
You have to work to separate the wheat from the chaff.......2007-09-24
There's no doubt that Nassim Taleb is a brilliant man. And, there's no doubt that he is frustrated by having to work among people who don't get it. What is there to get? Simply that the quest for certainty -- through mathematics, science or other logic disciplines -- may end up being the very thing which obfuscates the truth; that we end up not being able to see the forest for the trees. I think what he is saying is that there can never be certainty; that there will always be Black Swans...random events.
The reason why I say "I think" that is what he is saying is because there is so much stuff here -- a lot of which is totally irrelevant. He talks about his home town, seemingly just to wax nostaligic, though he may use the vignette to talk -- belaboredly -- about a point. Among the other stuff he presents is: an unusally high regard for the French language; too much - again irrelevant - reference to and back-story about thought leaders, and; palpable disdain for some colleagues in the quantitative field. If you can get through all of that and hold on to the nuggets, though, you will see some fresh thinking. Just his distinction between 2 different systems of thought is worth the work required. There are other presentations which may shift the way you think about things, too. In the end, it's worth reading, but you will have to focus on what's important because he doesn't.
Not recommended.......2007-09-21
The author expressed his strong negative options on statistics, econometrics, some finance professors, some Nobel Prize winners, etc. The whole point is that traditional stat, econ, finance techniques are mostly around the first moment (mean) but the distributions in finance tend to be non-normal and it's the risk that we should pay more attention to. That's a point few people would disagree with. What the author may not have known is that there are stat techniques out there that handle all the issues mentioned - while it's true that there's a lot of room for improvement, it's misleading to say that this is an area ignored by the academics and practitioners. While fractals are recommended, it is not clear how they can be directly applied to the area of investment finance.
There is a 2007 issue in American Statistican dedicated to the debate with the author and is highly recommended.
Book Description
A compelling vision. Bold leadership. Decisive action. Unfortunately, these prerequisites of success are almost always the ingredients of failure, too. In fact, most managers seeking to maximize their chances for glory are often unwittingly setting themselves up for ruin. The sad truth is that most companies have left their futures almost entirely to chance, and don’t even realize it. The reason? Managers feel they must make choices with far-reaching consequences today, but must base those choices on assumptions about a future they cannot predict. It is this collision between commitment and uncertainty that creates THE STRATEGY PARADOX.
This paradox sets up a ubiquitous but little-understood tradeoff. Because managers feel they must base their strategies on assumptions about an unknown future, the more ambitious of them hope their guesses will be right – or that they can somehow adapt to the turbulence that will arise. In fact, only a small number of lucky daredevils prosper, while many more unfortunate, but no less capable managers find themselves at the helms of sinking ships. Realizing this, even if only intuitively, most managers shy away from the bold commitments that success seems to demand, choosing instead timid, unremarkable strategies, sacrificing any chance at greatness for a better chance at mere survival.
Michael E. Raynor, coauthor of the bestselling The Innovator's Solution, explains how leaders can break this tradeoff and achieve results historically reserved for the fortunate few even as they reduce the risks they must accept in the pursuit of success. In the cutthroat world of competitive strategy, this is as close as you can come to getting something for nothing.
Drawing on leading-edge scholarship and extensive original research, Raynor’s revolutionary principle of Requisite Uncertainty yields a clutch of critical, counter-intuitive findings. Among them:
-- The Board should not evaluate the CEO based on the company’s performance, but instead on the firm’s strategic risk profile
-- The CEO should not drive results, but manage uncertainty
-- Business unit leaders should not focus on execution, but on making strategic choices
-- Line managers should not worry about strategic risk, but devote themselves to delivering on commitments
With detailed case studies of success and failure at Sony, Microsoft, Vivendi Universal, Johnson & Johnson, AT&T and other major companies in industries from financial services to energy, Raynor presents a concrete framework for strategic action that allows companies to seize today’s opportunities while simultaneously preparing for tomorrow’s promise.
Customer Reviews:
Requisite uncertainty and human capabilities.......2007-08-22
Zachary Stein ((Harvard Graduate School of Education) & Theo L. Dawson (Developmental Testing Service)
We agree with many of the other reviewers of this book. It combines high quality scholarship and accessibility, making it stand out from most of the popular leadership literature. But we think most of the other reviews have missed a key dimension of Raynor's model, a facet of his vision that sets it apart from the more traditional literature on strategies and organizations. With a nod to the research of Elliot Jaques, Raynor makes it clear that the proposed model of "requisite uncertainty" would have us build organizations that are sensitive both to the demands of the marketplace and the realities of human capabilities. We all know that organizations need to be responsive to socio-economic trends and uncertainties, but only a select few are privy to the notion that organizational hierarchies need to be designed in light of facts about human cognition and cognitive development. In our minds, this latter point is what sets the "Strategy Paradox" apart.
Individuals occupying different roles are faced with different demands. This we all know. But Raynor helps to clarify just who should be doing what, and moreover, what those at the top need to do to handle the unprecedented uncertainties of post-modern socio-economic conditions. As Raynor explains, these high-level demands cash out in terms of dialogically rich inquiry-based procedures for "crystallizing and preserving a diversity of opinions" regarding strategic options. Needless to say, that's a tall order that not just anybody can fill. What's preferable is not always possible. Our only criticism is that Raynor has too little to say about the cognitive capabilities that would make his vision possible. There is a rich literature about adult cognitive development and its measurement that Raynor does an inadequate job of referencing. Jaques and Kegan are the tip of a very complex iceberg. And frankly it's an iceberg that might sink this ship.
From where we sit, the model is incomplete without further consideration of the cognitive demands of "Strategic Flexibility." Any life-span cognitive developmental psychologist will tell you that less than 3% of the adult population in the developed world has the cognitive skills to meet these demands. We don't mean to rain on the parade, but for this model to work we need to ensure that those who engage in the highest levels of strategic planning are equipped with the requisite cognitive and discourse skills. Without them, real-world implementations will be less than stellar.
To sum up, our reading of the "Strategy Paradox" reveals a devil in the details. We think that Raynor's radical suggestions regarding human capabilities and organizational strata are the trend-setting elements of his model. Zeroing in on these suggestions exposes a formidable challenge.
Raynor has put time back into strategy.......2007-08-14
I won't repeat the powerful insights stated by many of the other positive reviewers. Read them yourself. They are special in their own right!
Raynor's latest book is beautifully written. It should all be savoured (slowly if necessary)...
The chapters which I believe Raynor will be truly remembered for are nestled in the middle (chapters 6-8). In these wonderful pages he rightfully restores "time" into strategy-making ("who stole time?", should indeed give rise to several more business books).
Leveraging Elliott Jaques' seminal work on time-spans of discretion, Raynor introduces "strategic flexibility" with compelling clarity and irrefutable logic. As an added bonus, he also illuminates the real role of corporate boards with such lucidity, that reading SOX prescriptions in future will seem sadly impoverished.
I have seen and heard Raynor speak in public. He is a virtuosic whirlwind on stage. Read this book. It is even better than the live performance.
Key Concepts Make it Worth Buying.......2007-08-08
I enjoyed The Strategy Paradox, and have added it to the Pearls of Wisdom page on my site. Powerful concepts in the hands of enlightened leaders, particularly those leading large organizations:
1. Extreme strategies do not come without risk
2. You don't have to predict the future to be successful
3. Divide responsibility for strategy formulation by time horizons
4. Give your organization a chance to adapt and succeed in the most likely future scenarios through options not commitment
In my mind if you get come away from a business book with one or more useful insights, then it was more than worth the time invested. This book is definitely worth the time if you are already (or aspire to be) a corporate leader or strategist.
Five star content!
Read this book before your competitors do.......2007-07-31
I have very high hopes for Raynor's book - it might force business practitioners to think more deeply about formulating real strategy and structuring the organization for competitive advantage. Most treatments of strategy address competitive dynamics (in the line of Porter), likewise positioning, or competency leverage (Collins). Raynor brings forward insights from his research and publishing in innovation (The Innovator's Solution), Harvard doctoral research, and the practical understanding that comes from actually consulting. While his book could anchor a top-notch MBA course, it might lead a good company's board to make much better strategic decisions.
I would not compare The Strategy Paradox with popular business books, such as The Long Tail or even Good to Great, but instead deeply-researched work like Alfred Chandler's. Raynor reveals the perils and promises of strategy formulation, the management of strategy and commitment, and the design and execution of strategic options. Keep in mind that most of what's published in journals and books is very loose, or even just junk research. Strategic management remains largely influenced, in the actual practice of corporate decision making, by Porter's 1980's work, resource allocation, and what I call Powerpoint SWOT. So who should care? Just about every executive and business unit-level manager. And, of course, educators and consultants focusing on business strategy and organizational dynamics.
It is one of the few works on competitive strategy that guides organizational structure as well as business positioning - not directly through guidance on design, but in terms of organizational function necessitated by requisite uncertainty. Raynor never mentions "strategic alignment," a troublesome notion from consulting with no good research support. Rather, he demonstrates how organizational focus on strategic action (as implied by "alignment") results from appropriate structural management, where uncertainty and commitment are appropriately weighted in the hierarchy. In time for Alfred Chandler's handoff to history with his passing in May, Raynor retrieves the original effectiveness of hierarchical management, and maps it functionally to uncertainty. This cleanly obviates the necessity for fuzzy nostrums such as "strategic alignment." (Or perhaps it saves it, for fans of alignment approaches).
Raynor explains complex business scenarios with a brisk storyline. The footnotes are a fascinating secondary read - the points are backed up by his research, Harvard studies, and dozens of well-cited papers. While optional to the main points, the research is actually useful and interesting. Some key concepts are novel in strategy research, such as the application of Elliott Jacques' work on requisite organization to support the principle of Requisite Uncertainty.
I highly recommend this book, and if you are an executive or board advisor, I urge you to read it before your competitors do.
The system encourages mediocrity........2007-07-23
Raynor's book is not the easiest read, but then again, that says more about the reader than it does about the book. The concept is rather revolutionary--and thus, difficult to digest immediately--in that it suggests almost everything we know about strategy and success is wrong. All the books, studies and anecdotes are comparing successful companies and mediocre companies instead of what they claim to do: compare success and failure. If they actually did compare the two, Raynor claims, you'd find a lot of similarities. That all too often, the keys to success are the recipes for failure. And that the people who we hold up as fearless leaders are really just one change in fate away from being the people we mock as losers. He's saying that this is inevitable, after all, how can a study include the business that started and failed and no one ever heard of? Thus, we only see wild success or middle of the road, bet hedgers.
Von Clauswitz talked of this too, saying that as we examine history, before we judge military defeats we must consider what our opinion would be had they succeeded. In other words, if the insurgent resistance in Iraq hadn't been so strong or if the WMD had materialized, would Bush's unilateral, undertrooped strategy be as derided as it is right now? Or if weather hadn't beaten back the Persians at Thermopylae, would we still think them arrogant and brash?
Accordingly, Rayor's book is a very unique look at some of the most illustrious examples of business failure. We see that some of Sony's biggest gaffs, had the market gone the way they'd hoped, would have been their biggest successes. This is true because of the theories two assumptions:
1) A successful strategy requires full commitment
2) Full commitment, in light of unpredictable futures, can mean catastrophic failure
And thus, the more you strategize, the more likely you are to be both massively successful and massively unsuccessful. The only middle ground--and often the most commonly taken--is mediocrity, where the company is neither successful or driven out of business.
Raynor poses a conclusion we often find ourselves also coming to:
"The only way [Company X] could have managed the situation any better is to have predicted the future...and that of course, is impossible. The future never gets here."
He sees strategies as equity or stock. You're purchasing the stock, and if you guessed right, you make money and if you guess wrong, you lose. The real way to succeed then, is to buy options on stocks. Essentially, to set up multiple, concurrent strategy options, from which you can then "agree to buy" the winners. These options then make your chosen strategy mobile in the face on an unpredictable future. This gives you strategic flexibility.
Overall, this was a very interesting book. The review deriding it above are to be expected--if we could all understand this, it wouldn't exactly be a paradox or problem would it? Pick it up and even if you don't understand every word, merely being cognizant of the dilemma would help you.
Average customer rating:
- Not a new theory,but a new way of solving Keynes's theory
- real options
- Not For The Faint-Hearted
- dealing with uncertainty
- State of the art -- but math is a required subject
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Investment under Uncertainty
Avinash K. Dixit , and
Robert S. Pindyck
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ASIN: 0691034109 |
Book Description
How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending.
This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
Customer Reviews:
Not a new theory,but a new way of solving Keynes's theory.......2004-07-23
Dixit and Pindyck(DP)have not come up with a new theory of investment. The three aspects that they deal with in their theory are the irreversibility of costly fixed plant and equipment,the uncertainty of the information base upon which the probabilities will be estimated,and the timing of the investment project over a series of future time periods.DP correctly point out that the NPV rule does not deal with the uncertainty of the information base upon which the probabilities will be calculated while also ignoring the question of the timing of a project,given that additional new relevant information on the potential expected profitability of a project may be forthcoming in future time periods.Thus, there is a value that can be assigned to waiting for this additional relevant evidence to occur in the future.The Net Present Value( NPV) rule or the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)only deals with risk,not uncertainty.Both of these rules assume the existence of a unique,well defined probability distribution that satisfies the law of large numbers.A decision maker need only concern himself with the variability of the outcomes over time. This is measured by the standard deviation.DP demonstrate that the standard approach to investment theory discounts only for time and risk while ignoring uncertainty or conflating uncertainty with risk.DP advocate an additional discount for uncertainty.DP obtain this result using the calculus of variations, optimal control theory,stochastic control theory and dynamic programming.These techniques,while interesting ,are not necessary in order to obtain the given result.A much less advanced mathematical approach was used by John Maynard Keynes to obtain approximately the same result.A criticism of this book would be the failure on the part of DP to mention the similarities between their theory and that of Keynes.Keynes's theory is covered in chapters 11,12 and 17 of Keynes's 1936 book ,titled the General Theory(GT).In chapter 17 ,Keynes makes a very important addition to the theory of the previously mentioned chapters on pages 239-241 where Keynes points out that the decision maker must also discount for uncertainty as well as for risk and time preference.Keynes's footnote on page 240 of the GT directs the reader to his technical model contained in chapter 26 of A Treatise on Probability, called a conventional coefficient of weight and risk c.In order to obtain approximately the same result as obtained by DP,one needed only multiply Keynes's NPV model of chapter 11 of the GT by the c coefficient.
real options.......2004-05-03
ok, i found this book is very important and give a new vision to understant the world of investement under uncertainty , further it demonstrate a new application nommed real options, by this new model we can making same decision with integrating the notion of flexibility in procesus of investement
Not For The Faint-Hearted.......2000-01-28
Investment Under Undertainty by Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck has been an important book in the 1990's because it introduced a relatively new subject to a new and eager audience when there was little else available outside of original research papers. Many of us are grateful to the authors for this introduction. However, newcomers should be aware that they omit large and crucial details of implementation [example: chapter 4, section 1H, pages 110-112 including the graphs on page 111: a newcomer will be lost; if you wait until the appendix to chapter 10, on numerical solution, then you may or may not note the printing errors]. The book is not for the faint-hearted beginner; even the simplest material, such as valuation of a perpetuity (see Corporate Finance by Brealey & Myers - very easy) occurs in a form which the beginner or skim-reading manager might not readily recognise (chapter 5, section 1A, pages 138-139); but then this book is not for them.
See also Real Options by Lenos Trigeorgis, who writes as if he keenly wants you to have fast access to his subject. For someone writing purely on the mathematical finance aspects, read anything by Paul Wilmott, who is clearly both clever and an exceptional educator
dealing with uncertainty.......2000-01-06
When searching for a framework for my PhD, I encountered Dixit's 1991 exposition on investmetn under uncertainty, in Journal of Economic Perspective. I was immeadiately hooked on option theory and its applications. Both authors of this splendid book are authorities in this field. The book is ideal for advanced MBA students with some mathamatics background. It is also suitable for PhD students in economics and finance. However students with math or engineering backgrounds may also benefit from reading this book.
As this book has repeatedly demonstrate, investmet in a uncertain world involves exercising an option. I mat asure the readers and buyers alike, investing in this book will yield high returns for your time and money.
State of the art -- but math is a required subject.......1999-08-24
Let me say that this is not a book for those looking for investment advice or get-rich-quick schemes. It is also not a book for those who think that an MBA and an HP12C are all you need to understand the basic theory behind investments, options, etc.
It is a mathematical subject...and to those with a good mathematical background, the book is remarkably well-organized and easy to understand. I found this book to be very helpful in my research.
Amazon.com
Change. It's fast, furious, relentless--and we're all in the midst of it. Indeed, it's the topic of choice for most business books on the market today. The problem, however, is that so many of these books merely warn managers how to plan for and anticipate change, rather than giving useful guidance on how to react to it successfully.
That's where the authors of The Minding Organization have made a difference. Rubinstein and Firstenberg believe that the real issue for businesses dealing with change lies in developing a truly adaptable organization. Being able to adapt, they argue, is the key not only to coping with a continuously changing environment but to addressing the problems that arise within that environment with innovative, successful solutions. An adaptable organization is a living, breathing organism, a "minding organization" that coordinates its goals and efforts as a single being. Each part of the organization knows what the other parts are doing, and is committed to creating a cohesive unit that maintains a unified focus for the future, shares information, articulates and learns from the individual errors of its members, continually seeks to strengthen its powers of perception, and is able to express itself creatively in a variety of ways. By developing this unity, an organization can bring the future closer to the present; it will be able to respond to events in real time, thereby transforming change from a threat to continued existence to a catalyst for improved performance. This type of organization won't shy away from the chaos of change but will embrace its opportunities, ready and well equipped to respond quickly and effectively.
The Minding Organization is a meaty book, packed with inspiring examples, solid analyses, and practical suggestions. Rubinstein, a professor at the UCLA School of Engineering and Applied Science, and Firstenberg, an adjunct professor in UCLA's Psychology Department, make a good team (they also wrote Patterns of Problem Solving). They apply theoretical knowledge and practical experience to the realities of the business world in a timely and useful manner. Forget being the CEO; this book will teach you how to be an OEC, an operator on the edge of chaos, capable of inspiring and leading a flexible, evolving, and thriving organization. --S. Ketchum
Book Description
A few years ago, Cementos Mexicanos (Cemex), the world's third-largest cement company, was struggling. More than two-thirds of their deliveries were late, customer complaints were numerous, and new orders were dwindling sharply. Then Cemex executives realized they needed to get a glimpse of the future. They saw themselves responding to customer needs as each need emerged. They visualized successful deliveries with orders placed only an hour in advance. Their entire organization became involved in the process of adapting to unplanned occurrences. By embracing the uncertainty and chaos of their business and a company-wide commitment to excellence, Cemex was completely transformed in a matter of months.
This is a remarkable example of minding: identifying a purpose, developing a team, and acting to accomplish that purpose. Achieving this kind of high-level connection is what The Minding Organization is all about. This book will show you how to transform your organization into one that behaves like a living organism-alive with ideas and instantly able to adapt for survival in an increasingly complex, unpredictable global business world.
A minding organization coordinates its efforts as a single being; the right hand literally knows what the left hand is doing. The minding process will help you save precious work time, avoid costly mistakes, build incentives for speed, and find creative solutions when unpredictable problems arise.
Creating a minding organization will teach you how to:
* Operate on the edge of chaos, embracing uncertainty as a strategy
* Bring insights up front that would normally be learned much later
* Distribute decision-making in such a way that everyone has the responsibility to be right and the authority to be wrong
* Create an environment in which the human spirit can soar
The Minding Organization will show you how less planning and more adapting makes for a competitive advantage, as you learn to cope with new, ever-changing conditions and innovate faster than your competitors.
Praise for The Minding Organization
Professor Rubinstein is one of the foremost experts on creativity within organizations. The Minding Organization is a well-written guide . . . [that] is must reading for anyone responsible for minding the organization.-Norman R. Augustine, Chairman of the Executive Committee, Lockheed Martin
The authors make intuitive good sense and give strategic thinkers the tools they need to turn perceived liabilities-chaos, disorder, unpredictable change-into assets. I've made it must reading for everyone in my organization. The only people I haven't recommended it to are my competitors.-Timothy W. Hannemann, Executive Vice President and General Manager, TRW
This book gives an accessible view of the organization as a living, connected organism. Drs. Rubinstein and Firstenberg have shared an insightful and elegant concept of what successful twenty-first-century organizations MUST be like if they want to survive and grow. We are putting the ideas in this book to use now!-Michael E. Allgeier, Division Vice President, Sensors and Electronics Segment, Raytheon
Rubinstein is as ebullient in print as he is in person. The Minding Organization transcends time and theory, enabling the practice of innovation as an everyday occurrence.-Stephan Argent, Creative Director, iCandy Inc.
In this book you'll find out how to open up a world of opportunity by 'bringing the future to the present'-visualizing the ideal end state and working backwards. You'll see how many obstacles can be eliminated, making the unachievable achievable.-Tom Williams, Vice President, Long Range Strike Business Area, Northrop Grumman Corporation
Customer Reviews:
The Care and Feeding of Intellect.......2000-05-03
According to the authors, "To keep up with the complexity and uncertainty of an unconventional and largely unpredictable global business world, organizations must embrace a new metaphor that will transform an organization into a minding organization. The minding organization behaves like a living organism, in which adapting is central to vitality and control." Agreeing with Drucker that organizations must manage the implications and consequences of a future that has already occurred, the authors suggest a number of strategies which will "bring the future to the present and turn creative ideas into business solutions." Their book is organized as follows:
Chapter One: The Minding Organization
Chapter Two: Transforming the Organization into an Organism
Chapter Three: Adapting and Planning
Chapter Four: Structure, Creativity, and Error: The Foundations of the Minding Organization
Chapter Five: Chaos to Order to Chaos: Embracing Uncertainty
Chapter Six: Expanding the Imagination: Frames as Filters
Chapter Seven: Kniht [Think] Backward: Visit the Future in the Present
Chapter Eight: The New Leadership: Operating on the Edge of Chaos
Chapter Nine: The Minding Organization in Action
The authors provide a rigorous analysis of each component of a process by which to "bring the future to the present and turn creative ideas into business solutions." At the conclusion of Chapter Six, they suggest that the minding organization "creates chaos deliberately up front by starting with divergent concurrent perceptions and encourages errors to surface early when the costs of detection and correction are minimal." Immediately in the next chapter, they explain that the "frames" we create "filter the world for us, allowing us to manage the tremendous amount of information available." They then examine various "filters" which could prevent us from formulating the aforementioned "divergent concurrent perceptions." The sequence of the authors' ideas thus flows logically from one chapter to the next.
In the final chapter, the authors identify thirteen "precepts" of the minding organization. By now they have explained the interrelationships between (indeed the interdependence of) these precepts; they have also provided a cohesive, comprehensive, and cost-effective plan by which to apply those precepts to the needs of any organization, regardless of its size or nature.
Those who share my high regard for this book are urged to read two books written by Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline and The Dance of Change. Rubinstein, Firstenberg, and Senge no doubt agree with Derek Bok's observation, when criticized by parents of Harvard students after a tuition increase: "If you think education is expensive, try ignorance." In the minding organization, education is alive and well...and given its relative cost, a bargain.
First "Learning" Organisation, Now "Minding" Organisation.......1999-11-30
This book taps into the trend of seeing organisations in organic terms and focusing on action-based creativity. It is about creating a "minding organization," one that behaves like a human being-instantly able to adapt to new and ever-changing conditions; where the right hand literally knows what the left hand is doing.
In a minding organization, all of the parties involved in a project-whether it's developing a new product, streamlining a process, or changing a strategy-get together from the start to explore the issues. They bring insights up front that would normally be learned only later on, a kind of high-level connection that is the hallmark of the minding organization and the surest way to gain competitive advantage. The goal of a minding organization is to adapt so readily that it innovates before its competitors do.
This book shows managers how to transform their organisation into one that behaves like a living organism-alive with ideas and instantly able to adapt for survival in an increasingly complex, unpredictable global business world.
Moshe F. Rubinstein is a professor at the UCLA School of Engineering and a frequent speaker at universities and organizations all over the world. Iris R. Firstenberg is an adjunct professor in the UCLA Department of Psychology and has also taught at the UCLA School of Engineering and the Anderson Graduate School of Management at UCLA.
Reviewed by Azlan Adnan, Managing Partner of Azlan & Koh Knowledge and Professional Management Group.
Book Description
This is a thoroughly updated edition of Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory, the standard text for doctoral students and researchers on the theory of asset pricing and portfolio selection in multiperiod settings under uncertainty. The asset pricing results are based on the three increasingly restrictive assumptions: absence of arbitrage, single-agent optimality, and equilibrium. These results are unified with two key concepts, state prices and martingales. Technicalities are given relatively little emphasis, so as to draw connections between these concepts and to make plain the similarities between discrete and continuous-time models.
Readers will be particularly intrigued by this latest edition's most significant new feature: a chapter on corporate securities that offers alternative approaches to the valuation of corporate debt. Also, while much of the continuous-time portion of the theory is based on Brownian motion, this third edition introduces jumps--for example, those associated with Poisson arrivals--in order to accommodate surprise events such as bond defaults. Applications include term-structure models, derivative valuation, and hedging methods. Numerical methods covered include Monte Carlo simulation and finite-difference solutions for partial differential equations. Each chapter provides extensive problem exercises and notes to the literature. A system of appendixes reviews the necessary mathematical concepts. And references have been updated throughout. With this new edition, Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory remains at the head of the field.
Customer Reviews:
painful and obscure.......2005-12-24
The mathematics of finance is not trivial, but neither is it really all that difficult; nevertheless, Duffie works to make you think that it is.
I maintain a scale of good versus bad mathematics writing in my head, against which I calibrate books I read. This scale stretches from, at one end, the faculty of Moscow University, in particular Israel Gelfand, Vladimir Arnold and Andre Kolmogorov, all of whom manage to explain to me hard things so that they seem easy, to, at the other, Darrell Duffie.
Finance for economists.......2005-04-27
This book provides the most elegant and coherent synthesis of finance theory, in a complete markets and frictionless settings.
For the reader interested in the theoretical foundations of modern financial models, this book has three main advantages over many of its competitors:
- It clearly shows the link between modern finance theory and the 40-year old Arrow-Debreu model. As this book will make clear, financial assets can be viewed as "bundles" of Arrow-Debreu contingent goods, and pricing kernels are simply extensions of Arrow-Debreu contingent state prices.
- It bridges the gap between arbitrage models on one hand, and models based on consumption, optimization/dynamic programming and general equilibrium on the other hand. Absence of arbitrage guarantees the existence of a stochastic discount factor, or pricing kernel. Optimality implies that the stochastic discount factor must be equal to the investors' intertemporal marginal rate of substitution.
- It provides a unified treatment of discrete-time and continuous-time models. Many finance textbooks focus on the mathematic tools and emphasize the difference between continuous-time and discrete-time tools--usually at the expense of the economics underlying both types of models. In contrast Duffie's book emphasizes the conceptual unity between continuous-time and discrete-time asset pricing.
This book was written more for students and academics than for pratictioners. It is not a reference or a recipe book for traders and programmers. Several chapters are devoted to general-equilibrium models that pratictioners are not likely to find useful. However, the essentials of derivative asset pricing and the term structure are also covered. The latest edition even includes a chapter on corporate finance.
Finally, this book is pretty much self-contained. All the graduate-level math results used in the proofs are presented either in the main body of the book, or in appendices.
Demanding but rewarding!.......2003-09-30
First of all, this book is for people with advanced mathematical preparation. Courses in functional analysis, measure theory, stochastic calculus and vector space optimization are in my opinion required for a deep understanding of the material in the book. Fortunately, the appendices are very good and provide many things that can help someone to follow the book.
In the first four chapters the writer develops the discrete-time theory,in order to provide a better understanding of the underlying ideas which remain the same in the next chapters which deal with the continuous-time setting.
Although the book needs a lot of effort from the reader, it is unique in that can help you see beyond the mathematics. In other words it USES the mathematics and it isn't just a layout of theorems and proofs.
Of course it can't be compared with books like Hull as it isn't accessible to everyone. But someone with the mathematical preparation , who has read Hull , should buy this book and he will never regret it.
best intro of finance for math guys.......2001-12-03
I am taking a phd level course which uses this book. For math guys, SDE and MG theory covered in this book are fine, but it is still somekind of tricky to fill in some details of proof. As author said, the latter chapters are just repeating the first two chapters in a fancy math way. It is better to understand the first two chapters very well and then go further. For optimal portfolio and consumption part, I prefer Merton's notes and his CTF. Whatever, this book is great and very neat for integrating the whole theory.
A tricky book.......2001-11-03
This book, whilst being very impressive i didn't really find helpful as a learning tool. A good knowledge of the subject is required otherwise it is almost impossible to follow.
I'm studying a masters in finance, and would say it goes well beyond what we need to know for such a course. Maybe maths & finance students would cover things in this.
I am amazed that people actually use such a comllicated book in practice!!
Average customer rating:
|
Uncertainty, Information and Communication: Essays in Honor of Kenneth J. Arrow, Volume III
Manufacturer: Cambridge University Press
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Binding: Hardcover
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ASIN: 0521327040 |
Book Description
Professor Kenneth J. Arrow is one of the most distinguished economic theorists. He has played a major role in shaping the present state of the subject and now is to be honored by the publication of three volumes of essays on economic theory. Each volume deals with a different area of economic theory. The books include contributions by some of the best economic theorists from the United Stated, Japan, Israel and Europe. This third volume is entitled Uncertainty, information, and communication.
Book Description
A careful blend of theory and practice, this book presents a comprehensive approach to assessing the impact of unplanned events on the cost of engineering complex systems. It illustrates how probability theory is applied to model, measure, and manage risk in the cost of a systems engineering project. The book contains numerous mathematical and professional anecdotes, case studies, results, observations, and interpretations that clarify the challenges in cost risk analysis. It includes references, equations, and illustrations, provides theoretical and applied exercises, and uses examples and case discussions derived from systems engineering projects to describe key concepts.
Customer Reviews:
Best technical book written yet, on this subject.......2003-12-12
Well written and very thorough in its treatment of how probability methods are used to quantify cost risk; excellent textbook for students (lots of exercises), as well as for professional cost analysts.
A Must Book for Engineers and Engineering Managers!.......2000-07-08
This is a must book for engineers, scientists, and engineering managers. Garvey's book presents how probability theory is applied to model, measure, and manage risk in the cost of a systems engineering project. The work is a first of its kind in the engineering, cost engineering/analysis, and operations research communities.
The book provides readers a clear discussion on the nature of uncertainty, how it affects the cost of a systems engineering project, and how probability methods are used to model, measure, and control risk from a systems engineering perspective. Readers benefit from the numerous mathematical and professional anecdotes, case discussions, results, observations, and interpretations found throughout the chapters.
The book contains 110 applied and theoretical exercises. It is an outstanding text for students in engineering and the related fields.
Book Description
Hedge funds are typically thought of as highly risky investments. Not so. In fact, some hedge funds are among the most conservative investments you can make. While speculative, high-flying hedge funds make the headlines, others quietly go about the work of crafting unique investment strategies and hedging portfolios against market risk. This much-needed book shows why affluent investors who want to be financially secure through retirement should know about hedge funds. Its blend of facts, practical tips, and personal insights takes the mystery out of this often misunderstood investment vehicle and reveals the critical questions to ask before you invest. James P. Owen (Santa Barbara, CA) has more than 30 years of experience in the investment management industry and is Senior Vice President of Broadmark Asset Management. Previously he was President of JPO Inc. and a partner with NWQ Investment Management Company. He is co-founder of the Investment Management Consultants Association (IMCA); author of the financial bestseller, The Prudent Investor: The Definitive Guide to Professional Investment Management; and was associate producer of the PBS television series,Beyond Wall Street: The Art of Investing
Download Description
Hedge funds are typically thought of as highly risky investments. Not so. In fact, some hedge funds are among the most conservative investments you can make. While speculative, high-flying hedge funds make the headlines, others quietly go about the work of crafting unique investment strategies and hedging portfolios against market risk. This much-needed book shows why affluent investors who want to be financially secure through retirement should know about hedge funds. Its blend of facts, practical tips, and personal insights takes the mystery out of this often misunderstood investment vehicle and reveals the critical questions to ask before you invest. James P. Owen (Santa Barbara, CA) has more than 30 years of experience in the investment management industry and is Senior Vice President of Broadmark Asset Management. Previously he was President of JPO Inc. and a partner with NWQ Investment Management Company. He is co-founder of the Investment Management Consultant?s Association (IMCA); author of the financial bestseller, The Prudent Investor: The Definitive Guide to Professional Investment Management; and was associate producer of the PBS television series, Beyond Wall Street: The Art of Investing
Customer Reviews:
Understanding Hedge Funds.......2007-08-07
James Owen's book is outstanding. He provides an excellent history of hedge funds, starting with A.W. Jones' concept of conservative investment principles that focus on wealth preservation, yet can result in outstanding long term success. The book gives a very good overview of the types of hedge funds and does a particularly good job of contrasting hedge funds from mutual funds and other relative performance vehicles. Ownen is also the author of my favorite "investment" book: Cowboy Ethics, What Wall Street Can Learn from the Code of the West.
Start your hedge fund education with this book........2006-01-01
I bought 10 books on hedge fund investing and this book is the premier resource for anyone who is new to hedge funds or who wants to improve his/her financial eduation and have a better grasp of investing strategies beyond 'buy and hold'. People who are considering or just moving into alternative investments should start with this book because it is clear, highly readable, and contains specific suggestions and lists of resources. The latter are invaluable to non-professionals who want a knowledge base for evaluating advice on what to do with their money and some idea of how to perform due diligence with regard to hedge fund investing. That is the target audience for this book and the author more than succeeds in meeting its needs. It is an excellent foundation for more complex treatments that are usually not as well written.
Experienced professionals would do well to read this book and note the clarity of its style and how it leaves the average reader with a sense of greater financial empowerment despite the complexity of its subject and material. Would that all financial writers (and advisors) could be as clear and engaging as Mr. Owen is in this book!
superficial..............2003-04-04
Way too superficial for the institutional investors... Although probably a nice start for privates it does not provide any indepth insight into the strategies employed by hedge fund managers or the risks involved.... For the professional investor I would recommend "Absolute Returns" from Ineichen, which covers the entire spectrum, from indepth analysis of the strategies employed to an extensive overview of market risk factors....
Good Book for Beginners.......2001-10-02
Author has good writing style and the book is laid out well. It is a quick and easy read. Contains good tips on where to get more info on hedge funds and how to perform some basic due diligence. Great for people who are thinking about investing in hedge funds and who don't have finance background. Books does fall short on explaining the risks inherent in many hedge fund strategies.
Neil Chelo, CFA
Good Timing.......2001-05-01
This book is worth reading!
Average customer rating:
- Straightforward intermediate microeconomics
- misunderstanding
- Lacks Links to Real World Economic Problems
- Stop referring to graphs & fig. that are on the next page!
- Does the job it was written for
|
Microeconomics
Michael L Katz , and
Harvey S Rosen
Manufacturer: McGraw-Hill/Irwin
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Binding: Hardcover
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Study Guide to Accompany Microeconomics
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The Logic of Congressional Action
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Advice and Consent: The Politics of Judicial Appointments
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America the Unusual
ASIN: 0256171769 |
Book Description
This is a Microeconomic theory text for courses in economics departments and business schools.
Customer Reviews:
Straightforward intermediate microeconomics.......2004-07-16
this is by no means an introductory economics text.. It's an intermediate level textbook.. It assumes that the student is capable of certain mathematical techniques (you can't expect a beginner to calculate the optimal consumer choice using the Lagranges method in chapter 3! - and it gets worse)
It is true that most of the time you have to flip the page to find the graph that is being explained. However it didn't annoy me too much. It is actually good thing if you want to practice and draw the graph yourself.
The 2nd edition had some errors but in this edition (3rd) they are corrected as far as I could see.
About the authors:
Michael Katz - University of California at Berkeley. Received the Earl F. Cheit Outstanding Teaching Award in 1989 and 1993. Served as chief economist of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission.
Harvey Rosen - Princeton University, Fellow of the Econometric Society and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research
misunderstanding.......2004-04-08
1. I did not read the book so I can not talk about the book, althoug I should have rate it otherwise I could not have submit this review! I rate it based on the info given by my professor of macroeconomics!
2. I want to make comments on the review of Mr. adoumri; I would say that he was disappointed with the book because, as can be seen from his review, hi actually wanted to learn things from macroeconomics, but unfortunatelly he took a book for microeconomics, so he is actually talking about apples having in mind pears!! :-)
One should be cautious when writing, as well as when reading other people's reviews!
Thank you!
Lacks Links to Real World Economic Problems.......2003-10-16
I am currently enrolled in a Microeconomics course at Columbia University, and I do not find this book easy to read at all, the reason being that the author makes no effort to link microeconomic concepts to real world problems. I have found my Macroeconomics textbook to be immensely more interesting because the concepts relate immediately to social issues and real world economic problems. For students who choose to study economics because of its insights into real world problems, this text may become frustrating. I suggest that the authors more examples of microeconomics in the real world, such as the explanation of "President Carter's Gasoline Tax" on page 106. When economic theory is taught with no reference to the real world, it makes some students less interested in the subject. I intended to study economics with the goal of gaining insight into social welfare problems and understanding government policies. Learning ratios and equations that simply determine how much tacos or hamburgers Sarah wants to eat was demotivating. As a result, I am trudging through my textbook (and class) and starting to wonder if this subject is worth studying.
Stop referring to graphs & fig. that are on the next page!.......2003-06-11
It's so annoying to read about graphs and figures that appear on the next page. If the authors are going to cite these visual tools have them on the same page whenever possible. Of course it is unrealistic to expect that everytime but in the K&R book this occurred 90% of the times. It's annoying when you have to flip the pages. This annoyance knocked 3 stars from what would have been a 5-star rating.
What's right about the text?
The economics is sound and the teaching is concise. Bravo in that regard.
Does the job it was written for.......2001-01-21
This is a very well written textbook. There are many textbooks out there on the markets and this one has been written with the beginning reader in mind. It is just too easy to scare the beginner with too-serious, too-academic dry language. Economics is fun to learn and the first textbook a student ever keeps in hand should make him interested, curious, wanting more and more, and of course, amused. The language of Katz and Rosen's textbook is by no means frivolous, but it is entertaining. They do not pull the rabbit out of the hat and startle the reader. Instead, they guide readers from familiar environment towards the unknown, always being down to earth and somehow, interestingly, economic theory sneaks in - in the meantime.
The order of theory presentation and the structure of the book really facilitate learning. I have used this book with the introductory microeconomics course, along with a few other ones - just for a test. They all preferred this one so we stuck with it for the remainder of the course.
In the middle of the book one finds a transparency with a graph, which, when applied, shows the effects of some parameter change. Excellent idea, as the student can see dynamically what happens with the application. It's like a hand-operated video... It's a pity that there is only one such transparency.
In summary, recommended for most introductory courses in microeconomics. it will keep students interested and will not scare them at all. Why want anything more?
Average customer rating:
- A Summary of the Current Techniques
|
Simple Tools and Techniques for Enterprise Risk Management (The Wiley Finance Series)
Robert J. Chapman
Manufacturer: Wiley
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Enterprise Risk Management: From Incentives to Controls
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COSO Enterprise Risk Management: Understanding the New Integrated ERM Framework
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Enterprise Risk Management: A Manager's Journey
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Making Enterprise Risk Management Pay Off: How Leading Companies Implement Risk Management
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Manager's Guide to Compliance: Sarbanes-Oxley, COSO, ERM, COBIT, IFRS, BASEL II, OMB's A-123, ASX 10, OECD Principles, Turnbull Guidance, Best Practices, and Case Studies (Manager's Guide Series)
ASIN: 0470014660 |
Book Description
Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) represents a fundamental shift in the way businesses must approach risk. As the economy becomes more service driven and globally oriented, businesses cannot afford to let new, unforeseen areas of risk remain unidentified. Currency fluctuations, human resources in foreign countries, evaporating distribution channels, corporate governance, and unprecedented dependence on technology are just a few of the new risks businesses must assess.
This accessible book, aimed at the implementers and practitioners of ERM, provides a highly structured approach so you can easily implement processes in your own organization. You'll find a number of case studies and practical examples from a variety of industries. The chapters are organized in a way that leads you through ERM implementation and include risk identification techniques, risk modelling methods, and the underlying statistics. Order your copy today!
Customer Reviews:
A Summary of the Current Techniques.......2006-08-08
It is not generally considered that business, all business operates in an element of risk. Everything from the price of supplies to Government actions involve risk. Often this risk is absolutely impossible to predict, i.e. those who went to work at the top of the World Trade Center one September morning. And as a result the analysis of risk in ventures has taken on great urgency.
Commensurate with this has been the development of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) tools to provide a framework for managing company-wide risk. It begins with overall corporate governance which establishes guidelines for the company to operate. Various phases within the process then include such activities as identifying, evaluating, and controlling risk within those guidelines.
The book is written from a worldwide basis and discusses recent changes in various countries such as the U.K., U.S.A. and Canada. These changes brought about by spectacular busines failures such as Enron, WorldCom, and the resultant troubles of companies such as Arthur Anderson have created an environment where the executive is taking a much greater interest in the management of the company as his risk of prison increases.
Dr. Chapman has a long history of working in the risk management area, including getting his Ph.D. in that area.
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