Book Description
How to trade the markets by integrating Chaos Theory with market sentiment
In the first edition of Trading Chaos, seasoned trader and psychologist Bill Williams detailed the potential of Chaos Theory-which seeks to make the unpredictable understandable-in trading and it revolutionized financial decision-making. The Second Edition of Trading Chaos is a cutting edge book that combines trading psychology and Chaos Theory and its particular effect on the markets. By examining both of these facets in relation to the current market, readers will have the best of all possible worlds when trading.
Bill Williams, PhD, CTA (Solana Beach, CA), is President of Profitunity.com, a leader in the field of education for traders and investors. Justine Gregory-Williams (Solana Beach, CA) is President of the Profitunity Trading Group and a full-time trader.
Download Description
How to trade the markets by integrating Chaos Theory with market sentiment
In the first edition of Trading Chaos, seasoned trader and psychologist Bill Williams detailed the potential of Chaos Theory-which seeks to make the unpredictable understandable-in trading and it revolutionized financial decision-making. The Second Edition of Trading Chaos is a cutting edge book that combines trading psychology and Chaos Theory and its particular effect on the markets. By examining both of these facets in relation to the current market, readers will have the best of all possible worlds when trading.
Bill Williams, PhD, CTA (Solana Beach, CA), is President of Profitunity.com, a leader in the field of education for traders and investors. Justine Gregory-Williams (Solana Beach, CA) is President of the Profitunity Trading Group and a full-time trader.
Customer Reviews:
Great book - very intense.......2007-08-27
I've been looking for a book like this for a while. I first came across Bill Williams through the Metastock indicators and the Expert System. After loading an expert called "PS Fractal Trading System 2" I was amazed at the signals.
Having read through the book - I have the following quibble. There is a huge difference in the parameters of the alligator in what comes with Metastock (v9 and v10) and what the book gives. The book says the green line is 13 bar smoothed average offset 8 bars into future. Likewise the red is 8 bar offset 5, and the green is 5 bar offset 3. However this does not correspond to the Metastock indicator he provides. For the curious, the Metastock ones referred to in page 206 of book have the following values: Green: 9 period EMA of Median offset 3. Red: 15 period offset 5, and Blue 25 period offset 8
It is the right book at the right time.......2007-07-06
This book has methods to get buy signals before the lows and sell signals before the highs. This will help one sell into strength and buy into weakness. It has helped me get my positions off. I have recommended this book to all of my trading friends. It will take careful study to fully understand it. This book is original, all mechanical and all objective. The three wise men make up very powerful trading tools.
Good book.......2007-01-09
Another great book from Bill Williams!
Interesting for trend trading and for good living.
Bill Williams is the REAL DEAL.......2006-12-18
I am a BIG believer in Bill Williams and his body of work.
I have personally met with Bill, taken his home study course and even attended a private tutorial. Bill is the real deal. He is a *highly* profitable trader and Bill trades EXACTLY like he describes in his books (simplified over time, so Trading Chaos, 2nd Ed. is the LATEST and most refined method).
If you just want to trade with no other background information, Buy Trading Chaos, 2nd Edition (not this book) and start with chapter seven. When you get to the end of the book, you'll say, "That's it?!?! Than can't be it!" That's what I said. I then went on to take his home study course (13 weeks) and then went to a private tutorial. 95% of the methodology is IN THE BOOK! The more advanced stuff is for those who are scaling into positions and want more aggressive money management techniques.
Who am I to say this works? I started trading Bill's techniques from scratch. In LESS than 6 months I was up 95% in a medium sized account. I found some like-minded investors and we started our own Hedge Fund (more specifically, a commodity pool). I called Bill personally and he spoke with me at length about how I should flow into and out of my positions, etc. He went far above and beyond the call of duty. I cannot speak to how well my Pool is doing (not legal to disclose - considered solicitation of investors), so I cannot give figures of returns for the Pool.
Buy Trading Chaos 2nd Edition and then buy "New Trading Dim mentions" (his second book) and read chapters 9 - 11. Those chapters will give you more ideas of the SCOPE of just what is possible when you simplify your trading and align it with natural market tendencies (chaos principles).
Good luck and Good Trading!
-- Q
The truth about how to become a successful trader.......2006-09-01
I purchased this book because I was trading with a method that used the awesome oscillator. I figured I should know something about the person who created it. I got much more than that. The book helped me to quit focusing on trading techniques and to start looking at my own mental state for trading. Turning inward has allowed me build better confidence in myself and my method. That in turn allows me to trade with a mindset which successful traders have. The fact that the book also presents a very viable trading method is just an added bonus. This book and "Trading In The Zone" by Mark Douglas transformed my trading career.
Book Description
TRADING CHAOS APPLYING EXPERT TECHNIQUES TO MAXIMIZE YOUR PROFITS
Chaos theory now stands at the cutting edge of financial decision-making methods. The product of years of scientific investigation into unpredictable phenomena, it has the potential to offer traders entirely new perspectives on the movements of marketsâand less risky routes to greater, more consistent profitability. Unlike other books on the subject, Trading Chaos takes chaos analysis out of the realm of the abstract and makes complex concepts easy to understand and use. It offers you the most practical, comprehensive guide available to applying chaos theory to the real world of trading and investing.
In this breakthrough work, author Bill Williams gives you the benefit of his unique qualifications: 35 years of successful trading and a PhD in psychology. The instructional techniques used in Trading Chaos have been tested and refined in the workshops, seminars, and private tutoring sessions Dr. Williams has conducted in 12 different countries.
Designed for all tradersâfrom beginner to experienced professionalâTrading Chaos introduces you to the financial applications of chaos in five graduated stages, starting with a clear, nontechnical introduction (Level One: The Novice Trader) all the way to chart analysis, fractals, Elliott wave, and advanced nonlinear dynamics (Level Five: The Expert Trader).
Trading Chaos probes depths of human and economic behavior that other books do not even mention, including:
- A detailed examination of the underlying structure of the market
- How individual belief systems affect the way we trade
- How to determine "what the market wants"
- Most importantlyâ"how to want what the market wants"
Numerous charts, trading models, analysis spreadsheets, and review questions reinforce the key concepts and help insure full comprehension of the material.
Regardless of your current degree of expertise, Trading Chaos will take you to new levels of trading confidence and increased profit.
This practical guide to the powerful tools of chaos theory will help you make better, more profitable trades
"Bill Williams brings a unique background and experience to the commodity trading world. His approach to becoming a successful trader includes many fresh and fascinating concepts for traders of all experience levels."âBruce Babcock Editor, Commodity Traders Consumer Report
"Bill Williams has demystified the Elliott Wave. His technical approach is an innovative and effective way to trade markets for novice and expert traders alike."âBob Koppel Skylane Trading Group
"Trading Chaos by Bill Williams is an excellent guide to profiting from a market which is nonlinear in structure. The book is divided into logical levels of trading techniques useful to the novice and expert trader. I was genuinely surprised that the expert can still learn refreshingly new techniques at each level presented."âTimothy C. Slater Managing Director of Dow Jones Telerate Seminars
Trading Chaos takes chaos theory out of the abstract realm and into the real world of practical investment decision-making. Using the techniques in this remarkable book, you will uncover the hidden patterns of what appear to be the random, unpredictable movements of the commodity, futures, and options markets. Regardless of your current level of experience, expert commodity trader and trainer Bill Williams will give you the skills and insights to move to levels of trading ability you would not have imagined possible.
Clear, practical, and nontechnicalâUnlike other books on chaos theory, Trading Chaos is designed to be easy to understand and use
Unique organizational formatâIntroduces the reader to the financial applications of chaos in five graduated stages, from Novice to Expert Trader
Expert advice on avoiding common psychological traps and pitfallsâIncluding such self-limiting afflictions as the "paralysis of analysis," "opinionitis," and the dangers of trading on individual belief systems
A wealth of supplementary materialsâCharts, trading models, trade plans, analysis spreadsheets, and trading diaries illustrate and reinforce key concepts
Customer Reviews:
As Simple as it is Powerful.......2006-12-18
I am a BIG believer in Bill Williams and his body of work.
I will admit, this book is the most confusing of his three. It is also the FIRST book of his three. If you buy this now, buy it to "fill in the blanks" but use his later works as the backbone of your trading.
I have personally met with Bill, taken his home study course and even attended a private tutorial. Bill is the real deal. He is a *highly* profitable trader and Bill trades EXACTLY like he describes in his books (simplified over time, so Trading Chaos, 2nd Ed. is the LATEST and most refined method).
READ THE FIRST CHAPTER OF THIS BOOK (it's free online here, just click on excerpts). This chapter alone is worth the entire book. If you just want to trade with no other background information, Buy Trading Chaos, 2nd Edition (not this book) and start with chapter seven. When you get to the end of the book, you'll say, "That's it?!?! Than can't be it!" That's what I said. I then went on to take his home study course (13 weeks) and then went to a private tutorial. 95% of the methodology is IN THE BOOK! The more advanced stuff is for those who are scaling into positions and want more aggressive money management techniques.
Who am I to say this works? I started trading Bill's techniques from scratch. In LESS than 6 months I was up 95% in a medium sized account. I found some like-minded investors and we started our own Hedge Fund (more specifically, a commodity pool). I called Bill personally and he spoke with me at length about how I should flow into and out of my positions, etc. He went far above and beyond the call of duty. I cannot speak to how well my Pool is doing (not legal to disclose - considered solicitation of investors), so I cannot give figures of returns for the Pool.
Buy Trading Chaos 2nd Edition (not this book) and then buy "New Trading Dim mentions" (his second book) and read chapters 9 - 11. Those chapters will give you more ideas of the SCOPE of just what is possible when you simplify your trading and align it with natural market tendencies (chaos principles).
Good luck and Good Trading!
-- Q
Incomprehensible.......2005-11-07
I am a lawyer and have spent most of my life reading, and had read many books on trading before I read this one. It looked like the holy grail, so the three or four key chapters, I read over and over trying to determine 3 simple things: Where to buy/sell short, where to place the stop loss, where to exit the trade. I confess, I was never able to determine that, from the text, although the author seems to assume that he has made that clear to the reader.
Joke.......2003-10-21
The five stars is only for the cover. However, the content of the book is pathetic. I have read many trading books and several chaos books and I can honestly say this book is neither. I fell for the enlightened self-similar structure cover and wasted my money. Don't repeat my mistake.
If you are interested in chaos and trading, start with Edgar Peters books such as Chaos and the Capital Markets.
The publisher, Wiley, should be ashamed to put out this sort of drivel. Bill Williams is a joke. If you think your trading style is based on your body type, then maybe this book will help you feel better about losing; otherwise skip it and Bill Williams, PhD.'s other lobotomized treatises on trading.
Trader Development.......2003-06-27
This book really is mistitled. Chaos theory for markets is not presented, so look elsewhere for that. The book does present a good theory for the psychology of trading such as "traders differ on value but agree on price" as motivation and explains the development of traders from novice, intermediate, and advanced (skip master and expert level)and the goals for each level. Unfortunately, the methodology for trading with a Chaos background is not touched upon.
Good filler read for background on trading and personal development. Poor on methodology for trading with Chaos. Perhaps Mr. Williams had an epiphany and contends all trades are done in Chaos, so traders should relax. To borrow a line from another author, "some trades will, some trades won't, so what, next trade please."
Donate your money to charity.......2003-03-25
In the first few chapters, he sounds so attractive, after that, you will find the author using new technical analysis words to describe the breakthrough of the resistance/support and claims this a new concept/idea, but he saying nothing on the book and if you are using his method to trade, you are not far from bankruptcy.
Eventually, you waste your money, then why don't send cheque to charities.
Book Description
Fully revised and restructured, Measuring Market Risk, Second Edition includes a new chapter on options risk management, as well as substantial new information on parametric risk, non-parametric measurements and liquidity risks, more practical information to help with specific calculations, and new examples including Q&A’s and case studies. The accompanying CD-ROM includes a Measuring Market Risk toolbox, with about 150 risk measurement functions, a manual and a selection of Excel workbooks illustrating basic risk measurement functions.
Note: CD-ROM/DVD and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file.
Download Description
"This book offers an extensive and up-to-date review of market risk measurement, focusing particularly on the estimation of value at risk (VaR) and expected tail loss (ETL). Measuring Market Risk provides coverage of parametric and non-parametric risk estimation, simulation, numerical methods, liquidity risks, risk decomposition and budgeting, backtesting, stress testing, and model risk, as well as appendices on mapping delta-gamma approximations and options VaR. Divided into two parts, the book also comes with a Toolkit containing 11 toolboxes dealing with technical issues often used in market risk measurement, including quantile error estimation, order statistics, principal components and factor analysis, non-parametric density estimation, fat-tailed distributions, extreme-value theory, simulation methods, volatility and correlation estimation, and copulas. The book is packaged with a CD containing a MATLAB folder of 150 risk measurement functions, with additional examples in Excel/VBA. Measuring Market Risk is designed for practitioners involved in risk measurement and management. It will also be of use to MBA, MA and MSc programmes in finance, financial engineering, risk management and related subjects in addition to academics and researchers working in this field. "
Customer Reviews:
One of the best books on VaR, but not suitable for beginners.......2006-01-24
I fundamentally disagree with the reviewer stating that this book should not be bought. The fact that that reviewer isn't familiar with Matlab is a shame given that he or she works as a risk manager and since Matlab is often a basic pre-requisite for doing good quantitative finance. Serious risk management demands serious numerical software and Matlab is one such tool which allows quick model implementation in the fast paced business world. Excel/VBA are definitely not suitable for good work in this field (just look up the many statistical problems that can be found in Excel's functions, for example, or try to implement some basic matrix operations using VBA). C is not great either given that the Dowd's didactic message would be lost in a sea of imperative coding logic. Not understanding that the 'svd' function is shorthand for singular value decomposition, makes me suspect that that reviewer's quantitative abilities may not at the level needed to read this book. However, I don't want to turn this review into a flame-fest advocating Matlab over all else and ignoring the content of the book itself. I think Matlab has its faults too, but Dowd made a sensible choice in using this pseudocode-like language for the examples of the models he presents. (And if Matlab is too expensive to purchase there are many free clones that work just as well: just search for 'scilab' or 'octave' on the web). But on with the review of the book itself...
As I said in the subject heading, this book is not suitable for beginners. There is not much in the way of justification of the aims of VaR or the field of market risk management, while much time is spent on classroom level theory. For example, chapter one contains a very brief recap of the highlights of the history of portfolio risk measurement, while chapter 2 already attempts to rip VaR apart with the justification of using coherent risk measurements instead of VaR. A beginner is just not going to be able to grasp all that's going on at this early stage without a good number of practical examples. Even *with* the examples, it's often hard for people new to the field to get the kind of intution that only comes after years of practice and working through real problems. Dowd doesn't do much to alleviate that kind of confusion. However, for the practicing, well-read risk manager or quant, the book is a veritable encyclopediac reference of the field. Dowd does for VaR what Fabozzi does for fixed income securities. He covers practically all the major models and their many variations and gives much more information about the mathematical tools needed to make these models tick than do most of the classic references (e.g. Jorion). What's more Dowd does an admirable job of describing important complements to VaR such as stress testing, backtesting, and model risk. Finally, the citations that Dowd includes in the book are useful in and of themselves as they include the main readings in the field.
My biggest complaint with the book is that's it's no more than a survey of the *theory* of VaR. To that end, Dowd's academic focus is present throughout and this focus book does not easily lend itself to practical issues in risk management and analysis. For example, one of the most important practical issues in risk management is the mapping of securities into their building block risk factors, yet Dowd spends a paltry 11 pages discussing this topic. What's more there is no mention of the very real world need to model portfolio VaR in the case of missing market data. Dowd too often assumes a perfect world of complete data which is simply not the case. Moreover Dowd does not discuss many of the real world issues involved in the development and maintenance of living breating enterprise risk systems.
Overall I think this book is an extremely useful addition to every risk manager's bookshelf, but I only gave it 4 stars because I feel there is a fair bit of room for improvement.
Great reference book for practitioners.......2005-06-30
Measuring market risk is a 'must-have' reference book for risk management professionals. Numerous examples illustrate how to solve risk measurement problems. Great book!!!!
I suggest you do NOT buy this book .......2005-04-08
I would have returned this book to Amazon.com and asked for my money back if I had not already been reimbursed by my employer for it. I am a risk manager, and so was looking forward to reading this cover to cover. Well, my opinion of this book changed before I got out of the preface!!!! The author states that all of the most important results will be provided as Matlab programs in the attached CD. Why? Because he doesn't think that usual programs like Excel/VBA are strong enough and yet programs like C and others are not user friendly. He then urges the reader to buy Matlab regardless of it being quite expensive.
Ok, my advice is to beware anyone who says that there is one and only one program that you can do something in. What he did was program in what he was comfortable with regardless of the reader's potential skills and resources. There are a lot of programs out there. But his whole book is targeted to using ONE third party vendor program. This was not disclosed in the book's descriptions. This is misrepresentation. If the book is so targeted toward one program, that should be indicated explicitly. The title of this book should be "Measuring Market Risk using Matlab". I suspect the reason this was not done was because it would have limited sales. I really think the author shows fundamental contempt for his readers by not appropriately disclosing the tie to Matlab on the cover.
Why this is particularly important is that this book is so targeted toward the CD. It looks like you have to have Matlab to run his examples. Without Matlab, all you have is code. And this is not some easy to read pseudo-code you can translate into another program. For example, one line taken from his Matlab code is:
[U,S,V]=svd(return_data,0);
What is that? If you guessed svd is standard deviation, you would be wrong. Do you think you are going to translate this spaghetti into something useful? I don't think so. There are a few Excel programs in a subdirectory on the CD, but they are just a scattered collection of bits and pieces of functions. One I opened up that looked promising could not run without the user buying yet another program called "Crystal Ball". This just got worse and worse.
The book is divided into two parts. The first is an overview of risk ideas with minimal derivation or explanation. The second half seems to be a more of a catalog of models and approaches that then points the user toward his CD. For example, there are 5 pages on Principal Components Analysis and Factor Analysis and then points the user to the CD. There are 4 pages on Copula functions, and then it points the user to the CD. If you don't already know how to do PCA and Copula, you are not going to learn it in 4 or 5 pages!!!! So what do we have here? It does not go into meaningful detail to explain the concepts. So it is not a strong risk book. So, this whole package is more like a software program with significant documentation. But wait. Its not a software program either because you don't get Matlab with it. You just get some prewritten functions from Matlab that don't appear useful unless you have Matlab. So, its not a software package, and its not a stand-alone risk book. What is it? Unless you already own or will buy Matlab and are already up to speed on market risk, then DO NOT get this.
Incidentally, I own Dowd's "Beyond Value at Risk". It is getting dated, but I thought that book was excellent. I think the author can do great work. My issue is not with the author's knowledge or skills. The problem is this book.
Book Description
The LIBOR Market Model (LMM) is the first model of interest rates dynamics consistent with the market practice of pricing interest rate derivatives and therefore it is widely used by financial institution for valuation of interest rate derivatives.
This book provides a full practitioner's approach to the LIBOR Market Model. It adopts the specific language of a quantitative analyst to the largest possible level and is one of first books on the subject written entirely by quants. The book is divided into three parts - theory, calibration and simulation. New and important issues are covered, such as various drift approximations, various parametric and nonparametric calibrations, and the uncertain volatility approach to smile modelling; a version of the HJM model based on market observables and the duality between BGM and HJM models. Co-authored by Dariusz Gatarek, the 'G' in the BGM model who is internationally known for his work on LIBOR market models, this book offers an essential perspective on the global benchmark for short-term interest rates.
Customer Reviews:
Helpful addition to comprehension and discussion, but with frustrating errors....not for amatures.......2007-04-02
Pricing interest rate derivatives with short term interest rate models has been like a game of FANTAN for nearly a decade, until the LIBOR Market Model (LMM, aka the BGM model) came along. Before, everyone was using Vasicek and periodically someone would sweep the table of everyone's winnings. In the discrete world of increasingly complex structured trades and advancing "mark to market" mandates driven by bank regulators and BASEL II, the seat of the pants confessions of exotic interest rate traders using cobbled together non-published short term interest rate models for valuation fell under justified suspicions.
Along comes BGM (Bachert, Gatarek and Maksymiuk)....while not exactly "to the rescue" giant sighs of relief were expelled worldwide as it has been widely adopted, as the ghostly hand of Fischer Black almost endorses it from beyond.
BGM is especially beloved by those who have to price complex derivatives and exotics because fundamental inputs are a snap to observe: a set of LIBOR forward rates. (Actually, anyone should love this feature). Then the fun starts, each forward rate is modelled by a (pesky, defensible, arguable) lognormal process first made famous and advocated by Fischer Black. The LMM (BGM) model therefore is simplistically looked at as a collection of little Black models. The trouble is, how do we collect them and calibrate them?
So it isn't just that simple, and this book explains in more detail just what the BGM model is, explores uses and limitations, etc.
Use the "LOOK INSIDE" feature to see the contents, but briefly there are three parts - theory, calibration and simulation. Drift is the topic of the day, and BGM don't disappoint. The parametric and nonparametric calibrations section is impenetrable to me, but this isn't my space.
Smile modelling has gotten into a chant at a football match: "uncertain volatility approach" shouts one side, "ARCH, GARCH, FART" shouts the other. Whatever. If you really want to dig into the volatility argument I suggest Knight & Stachell's third edition of "Forecasting Volatility" but you'll need your head examined before you can keep the players straight and need a scorecard handy. A discussion and comparison of HJM (Heath-Jarrow-Morton) in comparison and contrast with BGM is covered here.
Okay, the problems: this book is written in Engrishlovakian, not English. The copy editor should be shot.
There are lots, and I mean LOTS of typos, of which about 50% are easy to figure out what was intended. The other 50% enjoy too high an uncertainty coefficient to be comprehensible. An ERRATA sheet should be inserted into copies of future shipments ASAP.
Which leads me to my gigantic Grand Canyon-size hole in my knowledge: I just skip about 60% of the equations I read in any book, expecting the narrative to support what is explicit in the equations. I have no idea if these equations are edited correctly, and I suspect they are better than the English...but on the other hand, the English is so poor it makes you suspect the whole darn thing.
Who is this book for: general quantfin readers like me will find this tough sledding, this is a printed whiteboard and marker walk through of BGM from start to finish with current state-of-the-art discussions (with unfortunately a lot of whiteboard sloppiness mapped into the "book" state space). I suspect that as a conversation among experts, this book is a nice round-up straight from the source. Experts can probably see past the errors easier than others and both find it sloppy, but still comprehensible. I would dis-recommend this book for a clueless beginner, as the text assumes a readership pretty familiar with the complex and not-inconsiderably large discussion of forward rate and term structure models. For example, maximum smoothness of cubic splines are pretty much assumed and quite possibly laughed at by this crowd.
James "Not-Vasichek"
Book Description
In recent years, interest-rate modeling has developed rapidly in terms of both practice and theory. The academic and practitioners' communities, however, have not always communicated as productively as would have been desirable. As a result, their research programs have often developed with little constructive interference. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato draws on his academic and professional experience, straddling both sides of the divide to bring together and build on what theory and trading have to offer.
Rebonato begins by presenting the conceptual foundations for the application of the LIBOR market model to the pricing of interest-rate derivatives. Next he treats in great detail the calibration of this model to market prices, asking how possible and advisable it is to enforce a simultaneous fitting to several market observables. He does so with an eye not only to mathematical feasibility but also to financial justification, while devoting special scrutiny to the implications of market incompleteness.
Much of the book concerns an original extension of the LIBOR market model, devised to account for implied volatility smiles. This is done by introducing a stochastic-volatility, displaced-diffusion version of the model. The emphasis again is on the financial justification and on the computational feasibility of the proposed solution to the smile problem. This book is must reading for quantitative researchers in financial houses, sophisticated practitioners in the derivatives area, and students of finance.
Customer Reviews:
why bother.......2003-02-14
It's hard to believe a reviewer with such a myopic view of Derivatives pricing could go through the whole book, understood it and found time to rate it. Mindblowing waste of time !
Few hundreds years ago, he would have recommended burning the Madmen claiming the earth was round.
Anyway, while Derivatives Pricing achieves little for the welfare of mankind, the recent need for assets based on ever complex market scenarios calls for a more refined pricing methodology. There no supply and demand here, only customers who want hedge/trade/tradge assets /liabilities and traders who need to make sure their firms don't go burst when market move.
The author answers that demand by formatting and publishing his papers.
rebonato does it again.......2003-01-18
My avid reading kept jostling out superb hot ideas from this book. Rebonato carries out a comprehensive survey of the LIBOR market model. He tackles historical background, calibration, and effective implementation. The later chapters also cover extensions to the LIBOR market model to take account of smile and skew. In particular, there is extensive discussion of the cutting-edge Joshi-Rebonato stochastic-vol, displaced-diffusion LIBOR market model.
If you are working on the pricing of exotic interest rate derivatives, this book is a must buy.
Such pearls of wisdom.......2003-01-09
I am not qualified to write a review of this book, but neither is the above author as his "review" is nothing more than an uninformed assault on modern finance.
In fact, I submit, that said reviewer knows nothing of finance whatsoever.
(Since this book happens to be well regarded, I'll give it a five)
A theoretical substitute for supply and demand.......2002-12-20
A complicated body of mathematical theory, developed over a period of about 30 years, addresses the question: how should derivative X be valued if we know certain parameters, especially the volatility of the price of its underlying asset?
But why exactly does the question need answering? After all, the price of X, like that of its underlying, is determined by the point at which the demand for X is equal to the supply of X. One doesn't need a computer for that, one just needs a liquid marketplace. I can look up the price of a share of Microsoft's equity in my daily newspaper. I'm not tempted to develop a body of theory to figure it out, when I can flip through a few pages and find it.
Nowadays, I can also look up the price of a standardized option to buy Microsoft in the newspaper. In 1973, when people like Fischer Black began developing this body of theory, that was not yet the case.
This brings us to the point of my little sermon. The purpose of this body of theory is to produce a price figure in cases where there is not a liquid market for X. The theories answer the question a portfolio manager must often ask himself: if I were able to find a buyer for X, how much could I charge for it?
This book has its moments, but in general I believe this body of theory accomplishes less than its adepts believe. The imagery of a God-like Newton on the dust jacket indicates, I submit, some of the pretentiousness that gets into their ivory towers.
Book Description
Every trader will appreciate this reliable, realistic, and systematic approach to trading financial and commodity markets. In a step-by-step manner, the author applies a rigorous mathematical discipline to finanical speculation and explain how to analyze markets, forecast price movements, develop trading strategies, and manage trading capital. Kase also unveils several highly sophisticated indicators that are far more precise than conventional technical indicators. Unlike most books on trading, Trading with the Odds contains complete coverage of money management, including the author's own ``Kase Dev-Stop,'' a highly calibrated money management tool. Trading with the Odds also includes: Uses and abuses of conventional technical analysis; New technical indicators for analyzing markets and entering trades.
Customer Reviews:
Identity theft revisited.......2006-03-24
Below is a review of this book by a "Ron Davis" who styles himself as "a proud member of the Market Technicians Association." Bzzzt! I am the only current or past Ron Davis in the Market Technicians Association. Interestingly enough, I also have a successful real estate practice. Quite the coincidence -- makes one wonder.
The "RD" below finds the book to be without substance. Perhaps what one sees depends, in part, on what one brings to the book. I quite agree with the reviewers who say this is not a book for beginners. I had a couple of "aha" moments reading the book, one about Kase DevStops (I'd better have yet another look at those) and one about one of my own proprietary indicators. A few minutes of programming and, by golly, I was able to derive a bit more useful information from my own gadget.
What's this book good for? (1)A trading methodology or (2)ideas about ideas. I'll not broach (1) -- the book does that. I have already mentioned two things that jumped out at me. I also want to take a look at her variation on Elliot Wave counting and targeting. And, on a second read, I may find other things I'd like to fiddle with a bit.
Criticisms: My criticisms fall into two categories (1)purist mathematics nit-picking (I am a mathematician by training) and (2) my laziness/the book's lack of complete exposition. The mathematical nitpicking is not relevant except to a mathematician: for instance, the number of random distributions which are not Gaussian/Normal are at least an order of infinity larger than the number of Gaussian distributions. Should the person who is reading to learn of trading care? I wouldn't think so. My Laziness/the book's incomplete exposition: What? I really have to turn on my brain and think through how to implement the ideas? No cookbook approach here? Of course, if one were being rational, not lazy, one could point out the advantage to having to think: one might actually learn what it is one is doing. And, one might even think up a new idea, heaven forfend.
In conclusion, not only do I resent the attempted identity theft by the person below, but I especially resent being represented as such an empty-headed fool that I cannot see the considerable value in this book.
The REAL Ron Davis, CMT, MAI, MA
Trading with the odds.......2006-03-17
Book was quite expensive. $55 for 143 pages. I found some of the graph illustrations difficult to follow since the printing was so bad. Requires many readings to get the full jist of what the author is saying. Overall, I found the book and concepts interesting.
My first post.......2006-01-13
It is amazing how we humans all have our own agendas. Someone founf this book 'useless', some found it exciting...that's all fair...I found it revolutionary (read the post before this one). One fellow bloats his ego and describes how he is a great technician. I'd like to see how his finances compare to Cynthia Kase; as a trader. The proof is in the pudding....
This is a revolutionary book and there are very few out there!
(however, I noticed esignal's add for Kase Statware states 95% successful is predicting market turns...rubbish!)
Still that's a differnet subject, isn't it!
Original and real work to read.......2005-12-06
Cynthia Kase thinks about trading in a different way from most people. She's terrific but you need both brains and some conceptual understanding of statistics to "get" this book.
Just to take an example, I have never heard anyone else explain that risk is proportional to the square root of time (or tick) interval: lower your time span, lower your risk. If that kind of thinking excites you, you're at the right place.
Marketing Book--'NOT' Book on Trading Markets.......2005-11-25
This book is devoid of any substance. I am a well-known, highly respected market technician and capable of discerning value and substance and utter nonsense. This book is the latter for sure. It is a marketing ploy and this woman should be ashamed of herself. I am a proud member of the Market Technicians Association. I share my ideas and vast knowledge and experience with others free of charge. I devote my spare time to reading books on technical analysis but I do not want to waste my time. Had this book been wothout type I would have been happier as I would not have wasted my valuable time. It is a total disgrace! I have a very successful full time real estate job and my time is certainly more valuable obvioujsly than this young lady. Buyer beware! Thank goodness I could return this empty attempt at marketing. I am even attempted to write a book and demonstrate how an honest person presents true value.
Book Description
Written in a reader-friendly manner, this reference is designed to meet the needs of readers who want to master the interest theory and finance topics addressed in the Financial Mathematics exam.
Requires an algebra background; calculus not a prerequisite. Encourages readers to practice writing throughout, and more than 30 end-of-chapter writing exercises are included. Provides more than 240 worked examples in a wide range of difficulty. Features abundant examples, discussion, and problems throughout.
A useful guide for readers planning to take the Financial Mathematics exam.
Mathematical Interest Theory, 1/E
James W. Daniel
Leslie Jane Federer Vaaler
Customer Reviews:
One of the worst books .......2007-05-23
I'm a computer engineering and math double major. I took a math class about interest and this is the book associated with the class. This is one of the worst books, the sections do not prepare you for the end of chapter problems. The questions are unclear it's either that they need to improve the questions or the sections. This book sucks, I rated it 1 star because there are no negative stars. This is the worst book ever. I was so angry at this book I actually burnt it after I was done with that class. Waste of money, waste of time. Infact my I.Q. probably decreased after reading this book and attempting the excersises at the end of the chapter.
Purchase at your own risk.......2007-05-05
To begin with, I think that this book is written for those who already have a familiarity with the material. Just so you know my experience with this book, I took a college math course where this was the required text. I soon found out, that the examples through the chapter were decent, but the questions at the end had little or no correlation to those previously read in the chapter. I should add that what made these questions decent is that you could decipher the meaning of the chapter examples because the examples solutions were directly after.
I think that if the author spent a little more time making the review problems a little more understandable and similar to those seen previously, than thinking up different names for the people in every single problem, He may have written a decent book. And that is a BIG MAYBE!
If you are thinking of purchasing this book to prepare for the Actuary FM Exam, DON'T. Stick to the ones on the SOA recommended list, or one of the Temple or Actex study manuals.
Stick to SOA/CAS Syllabi.......2007-03-20
I used this text in a class designed to prepare me for my FM exam. It didn't. The text has some usefull calculator exercises but the homework problems are not comensurate with the level of difficulty in the section examples. If you are preparing for the actuarial FM exam, don't use this book. Stick to the texts reccomended by the SOA and CAS.
Perfect for FM exam.......2006-07-26
I highly recommend this book for students studying for the FM exam. I read the book cover to cover and passed the exam. It is easy to read and is full of examples to illustrate the concepts. The difficulty levels presented make a nice range; there are a good mix of problems designed to reinforce the concept as well as problems using a combination of concepts (much like the FM exam).
Where to get more information.......2006-03-24
Of course I like the book---I'ma co-author. For sample sections and more information, see http://www.actuarialseminars.com/book.html .
Average customer rating:
- Poorly explained
- A very good introduction
- A dated overview, with little real meat
- Good overview, bad balance
- Commit it to the flames
|
Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets: A New View of Cycles, Prices, and Market Volatility (Wiley Finance)
Edgar E. Peters
Manufacturer: Wiley
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Similar Items:
-
Fractal Market Analysis: Applying Chaos Theory to Investment and Economics
-
Complexity, Risk, and Financial Markets
-
The (Mis) Behavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin And Reward
-
Fractals and Scaling In Finance
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Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems
ASIN: 0471139386 |
Book Description
The latest developments in chaos theory - from an industry expert
Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets was the first book to introduce and popularize chaos as it applies to finance. It has since become the classic source on the topic. This new edition is completely updated to include the latest ripples in chaos theory with new chapters that tie in today's hot innovations, such as fuzzy logic, neural nets, and artificial intelligence.
Critical praise for Peters and the first edition of Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets
"The bible of market chaologists." - BusinessWeek
"Ed Peters has written a first-class summary suitable for any investment professional or skilled investor." - Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities
"It ranks among the most provocative financial books of the past few years. Reading this book will provide a generous payback for the time and mental energy expended." - Financial Analysts Journal
This second edition of Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets brings the topic completely up to date with timely examples from today's markets and descriptions of the latest wave of technology, including genetic algorithms, wavelets, and complexity theory.
Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets was the very first book to explore and popularize chaos theory as it applies to finance. It has since become the industry standard, and is regarded as the definitive source to which analysts, investors, and traders turn for a comprehensive overview of chaos theory. Now, this invaluable reference - touted by BusinessWeek as "the bible of market chaologists" - has been updated and revised to bring you the latest developments in the field.
Mainstream capital market theory is based on efficient market assumptions, even though the markets themselves exhibit characteristics that are symptomatic of nonlinear dynamic systems. As it explores - and validates - this nonlinear nature, Chaos and Order repudiates the "random walk" theory and econometrics. It shifts the focus away from the concept of efficient markets toward a more general view of the forces underlying the capital market system.
Presenting new analytical techniques, as well as reexamining methods that have been in use for the past forty years, Chaos and Order offers a thorough examination of chaos theory and fractals as applied to investments and economics. This new edition includes timely examples from today's markets and descriptions of cutting-edge technologies-genetic algorithms, wavelets, complexity theory-and hot innovations, such as fuzzy logic and artificial intelligence.
Beyond the history of current capital market theory, Chaos and Order covers the crucial characteristics of fractals, the analysis of fractal time series through rescaled range analysis (R/S), the specifics of fractal statistics, and the definition and analysis of chaotic systems. It offers an in-depth exploration of:
* Random walks and efficient markets - the development of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and modern portfolio theory
* The linear paradigm - why it has failed
* Nonlinear dynamic systems - phase space, the Henon Map, Lyapunov exponents
* Applying chaos and nonlinear methods - neural networks, genetic algorithms
* Dynamical analysis of time series - reconstructing a phase space, the fractal dimension
Tonis Vaga's Coherent Market Hypothesis - the theory of social imitation, control parameters, Vaga's implementations
Plus, Chaos and Order now contains a Windows-compatible disk including data sets for running analyses described in the appendices.
Written by a leading expert in the field, Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets has all the information you need for a complete, up-to-date look at chaos theory. This latest edition will undoubtedly prove to be as invaluable as the first.
Customer Reviews:
Poorly explained.......2004-02-04
I have a university maths degree and found the book very obvious and drawn out for the first few chapters. In spite of this I looked forward to what was going to be explained later. Suddenly from a very simple and easy to understand explanation on the EMH he starts to use mathematics in his equations that I had a lot of difficulty following. There was very little or no explanation of how these equations were arrived at and a lot of mathematics and statisics is assumed. This book does not apply the theory in ny meaningful way to the markets let alone the capital markets in my opinion. I found that I took very little away from this book and would not recommend it to anyone who has basic mathematics like myself or is looking for some deeper insight into the markets. I would hate to have Mr Peters as a teacher based on his book.
A very good introduction.......2004-02-01
I read this book, the 1991 version, years ago. Around 1980 my own attempts to crack share prices statistically convinced me that all share prices behaved like a Gaussian random walk meaning that all speculation was comparable with playing roulette and I am not one of those guys who usually wins when gambling. This view was strengthened when the option pricing model came up, meaning that even the real pro's in the field assume that share prices are nothing but a random walk. This book has opened my eyes to the fact that there is much more to randomness than just the Gaussian curve. Share prices are not fully random. Impressive is the demonstration that an RS analysis on the real data is different when applying the same RS analysis on scrambled data. So there is information hidden in these time series, somewhere. Since then I have picked up the subject of cracking time series again with great pleasure. I think this book is exceptionally well written and without it I doubt if I would have been able to follow Mandelbrot's book "scaling and fractals in finance" that I bought later. The book is about understanding a subject, not about learning a simple formula to apply on a time series.
A dated overview, with little real meat.......2003-02-10
The second edition of this book was published in 1996. The book
seems to be largely based on Feder's 1988 book "Fractals". The
dated nature of this book means that it is missing later work
on long memory processes, which Peters estimates using the Hurst
exponent.
As one reviewer already noted, don't assume that this book will
provide much in the way of useful equations. For anyone who wants
more than an overview, this book is a disappointment. Peters does
a poor job of explaining the equations and I did not find enough
detail to implement the algorithms discussed (I turned to Feder's
book and various journal articles). The book does come with a
"floppy" disk containing the Visual Basic algorithms. This is
a poor choice, since C is pretty much the lingua franca for
algorithms.
The various chaos and fractal techniques are applied to a handful
of financial data sets, but this is far from even a solid
suggestion that these techniques might be useful to anyone
developing real market models.
Some of the conclusions that Peters draws (cycles in financial
data) do not seem to be supported the evidence he presents.
In summary, if you are looking for something beyond an overview,
save your money. Feder ("Fractals") has a better description of
RS calculation. "A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street" by Lo
and MacKinlay has a chapeter on the application of the RS
statistic and long-memory processes which is much better than
Peters. For those who need to simulate fractal brownian motion
(data sets with a particular Hurst exponent) "The Science of
Fractal Images" by Barnsley et all is a good reference.
Good overview, bad balance.......2001-03-22
If you're looking for a purely conceptual introduction to how chaos theory can be applied to financial markets, this book is as good a source as any. Peters's discussion of R/S statistics and the graphical examples drawn from the markets are clear and intuitive (Ch. 7-8). The key point demonstrating long-term memory effects in the market is well made.
However he spends an inordinate amount of time attacking the foundations of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) to the point of being boring, yet the argument boils down to "it has errors when compared to reality". Duh, so does every other theory, including fractal. The real issue is "for the error in theory A, how bad are the results X, and is theory B much better at it?" If you're not going to do that, don't spend 40 pages (Ch. 1-4) on it. This is misleading to those not familiar with EMH, and boring to those who are.
Don't look to this book for good math. In my edition (1991), careless and erroneous notations abound. Also, the equations are written in BASIC notation which is notoriously hard to visualize, but this is probably the fault of the editor/publisher. Peters makes frequent and unannounced jumps between the apparent rigor of math and loose conjectures. The math is distracting to a qualitative reader, and the conjectures irritating to the quantitative one. Better to cater to one audience, and do it well.
Still, I would recommend this book as a good conceptual introduction to the subject. But if you're planning to go deeper, use the equations in this book at your own perils. Go to the source.
Commit it to the flames.......2001-01-04
For those of you intrigued by chaos versus the financial markets, I would suggest you get the basic knowledge in Garnett P. Williams "Chaos Theory Tamed" (if you don't mind being explained in the first twenty chapters things like the laws of exponents and logarithms), or the Devaney books, for people with some maths. By the time you finish these honest, carefully and painstakingly written books, you will have a fair understanding of what chaos theory is about, and you will also see that while it is interesting stuff, it is hard to imagine it having any practical relevance to finance, since finance is the realm of stochastic, not deterministic phenomena.
Mr. Peters' readers will not have the chance of gaining such a perspective on chaos or on finance, alas. Mr. Peters hasn't produced a clear, comprehensible text, but rather a imprecise and frustrating piece, presumably written in a very short time, filled with a huge number of graphs having epsilon informational content. It is also full of conceptual mistakes - Mr. Peters most probably doesn't have a good grasp of what he's speaking about, but to be fair, it is hard to tell since the implicit message of the book is: "Hey, like I'm going to give out all my secrets...! Forget it, baby!", so the readers are never given all of the story. Readers therefore have to decide whether they believe that the author has found a meaningful and secret way to use chaos, that unfortunately will not be revealed, or whether the author should be put in the same category as those who write about Crystals or Financial Astrology.
Can smart people make profit with chaos theory? Certainly! However, the only way to do so is by writing books about it...
Profit which seems interesting, since Wiley accepted to publish a second product from Mr. Peters, thereby losing all credibility as an editor of financial books.
Average customer rating:
|
Pricing in (In)complete Markets: Structural Analysis and Applications (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems)
Angelika Esser
Manufacturer: Springer
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
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ASIN: 3540208178 |
Book Description
In this book, the authors investigate structural aspects of no arbitrage pricing of contingent claims and applications of the general pricing theory in the context of incomplete markets. A quasi-closed form pricing equation in terms of artificial probabilities is derived for arbitrary payoff structures. Moreover, a comparison between continuous and discrete models is presented, highlighting the major similarities and key differences. As applications, two sources of market incompleteness are considered, namely stochastic volatility and stochastic liquidity. Firstly, the general theory discussed before is applied to the pricing of power options in a stochastic volatility model. Secondly, the issue of liquidity risk is considered by focusing on the aspect of how asset price dynamics are affected by the trading strategy of a large investor.
Book Description
This book presents practical Risk Management and Trading applications for the Electricity Markets. Various methodologies developed over the last few years are considered and current literature is reviewed. The book emphasizes the relationship between trading, hedging and generation asset management.
Books:
- Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment
- Wiley CPA Exam Review 2007 Regulation (Wiley Cpa Examination Review Regulation)
- 50 Favorite Rooms By Frank Lloyd Wright
- Active Portfolio Management: A Quantitative Approach for Producing Superior Returns and Controlling Risk
- America's Bubble Economy: Profit When It Pops
- Analysis of Financial Statements
- Analysis of Financial Time Series, 2nd Edition (Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics)
- Applied Longitudinal Data Analysis: Modeling Change and Event Occurrence
- Applied Mergers and Acquisitions, with CD-ROM (Wiley Finance)
- Asset Pricing: (Revised)
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