Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
Average customer rating: 4 out of 5 stars
  • Against The Gods, a highly recommended book for MBA
  • So Close to Wonderful
  • Unpretentious and pleasant
  • Are you risk-seeker or risk-averse?
  • A remarkable rational attitude against rational Gods
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
Peter L. Bernstein
Manufacturer: Wiley
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0471121045

Amazon.com

With the stock market breaking records almost daily, leaving longtime market analysts shaking their heads and revising their forecasts, a study of the concept of risk seems quite timely. Peter Bernstein has written a comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, beginning with early gamblers in ancient Greece, continuing through the 17th-century French mathematicians Pascal and Fermat and up to modern chaos theory. Along the way he demonstrates that understanding risk underlies everything from game theory to bridge-building to winemaking.

Book Description

A Business Week, New York Times Business, and USA Today Bestseller

"Ambitious and readable . . . an engaging introduction to the oddsmakers, whom Bernstein regards as true humanists helping to release mankind from the choke holds of superstition and fatalism." -The New York Times

"An extraordinarily entertaining and informative book." -The Wall Street Journal

"A lively panoramic book . . . Against the Gods sets up an ambitious premise and then delivers on it." -Business Week

"Deserves to be, and surely will be, widely read." -The Economist

"[A] challenging book, one that may change forever the way people think about the world." -Worth

"No one else could have written a book of such central importance with so much charm and excitement." -Robert Heilbroner author, The Worldly Philosophers

"With his wonderful knowledge of the history and current manifestations of risk, Peter Bernstein brings us Against the Gods. Nothing like it will come out of the financial world this year or ever. I speak carefully: no one should miss it." -John Kenneth Galbraith Professor of Economics Emeritus, Harvard University

In this unique exploration of the role of risk in our society, Peter Bernstein argues that the notion of bringing risk under control is one of the central ideas that distinguishes modern times from the distant past. Against the Gods chronicles the remarkable intellectual adventure that liberated humanity from oracles and soothsayers by means of the powerful tools of risk management that are available to us today.

"An extremely readable history of risk." -Barron's

"Fascinating . . . this challenging volume will help you understand the uncertainties that every investor must face." -Money

"A singular achievement." -Times Literary Supplement

"There's a growing market for savants who can render the recondite intelligibly-witness Stephen Jay Gould (natural history), Oliver Sacks (disease), Richard Dawkins (heredity), James Gleick (physics), Paul Krugman (economics)-and Bernstein would mingle well in their company." -The Australian

Customer Reviews:

4 out of 5 stars Against The Gods, a highly recommended book for MBA.......2007-09-18

The reason that I bought this book was because it was highly recommended by the teachers at my MBA class.

They were not kidding, from head to toe its very good and kept my attention till the end. It has been of great help to me. Aside the history content it helps you to think on how to mitigate risk and how improve the opportunities.

4 out of 5 stars So Close to Wonderful.......2007-08-14

Bernstein does an adequate job bringing the concepts together, but this is not a page-turner. I found myself reading on for the promise of insight, and he offers some, but the writing is a bit dull.

3 out of 5 stars Unpretentious and pleasant.......2007-07-10

Bernstein is an interesting writer since he is the consummate finance insider- a practioner, regulator and academic. This range helps and harms the book - in his efforts to render the history of risk, he delves into anecdotal caricatures while amusing definitely smack of basis risk with the underlying ideas that are provocative enough! I found the behavioural finance and derivatives section to be rather basic but then realised the book was written in 1996. It's a pleasant read but a more pragmatic introduction to probability is the infinitely witty Cartoon Guide to Statistics.

5 out of 5 stars Are you risk-seeker or risk-averse?.......2007-07-01

According to this book you are both, it only depends on the point of view that is presented. I enjoy the book from the beginning to end, especially the last three chapters. The history and analysis of rational behavior is enlightening, to anyone who has ever thought about the process of decision.

3 out of 5 stars A remarkable rational attitude against rational Gods.......2007-05-16

2 crucial ponits in this book:

1.Sociological: Bernstein describes how risk was first imagined as an essentially modern cultural form and significantly operationalized in early mercantile capitalist shipping, where individual losses in rapidly expanding global trade become large enough to encourage their socialization in insurance arranegemnts. This book implies some viable if crude forms measurement and scaling of risk. In his narrative, risk was there waiting to be discovered, carrying its own intrinsic meaning, which the visionaries, through their heroic powers of access to msteries of Nature, were able to reveal to men of commerce and others who could then drive the economic, cultural and technological revolution of modernity. We can note from this account of risk how an implicit normative framework`and a claim of control are advanced as defining features of this new state`of enlightenment. It is this scientific risk discourse which gives total control`of `the future at the service of the present', the implication being that risk`analysis identifies and domesticates all significant future consequences of the`relevant actions. In this way ignorance and unanticipated consequences - lack`of control - lying beyond the reach of existing scientific knowledge, thus`potentially embarrassing in future to risk assessment, are seamlessly deleted.`Risk is thus assumed to define the full sphere of conceivable meaning for considering`new technologies and their implications, and science reveals this`independent meaning. (Reference, Wynne:Reflexivity inside out?)

2. Historical: While it is apparent to historians that both Khayyam and Kharazmi were Persian thinkers, the author in keen to be selective inattentive to this fact such that he argues the system of numbers were imported from Arab world to West whereas it was firstly introduced to Arabs at the time Persia was invaded by them. Hence the author's historic mind-set starts from 12th Century while long before which is 500 B.C. risk used to be engineered among Persians. (Reference, Channel History-Engineering an Empire: Persia)
Microsoft  Excel Data Analysis and Business Modeling (Bpg-Other)
Average customer rating: 3.5 out of 5 stars
  • Great Book
  • Real Good for a textbook.
  • Not bad, but not as good as expected
  • Excellent
  • Very practical, but full of errors
Microsoft Excel Data Analysis and Business Modeling (Bpg-Other)
Wayne L. Winston
Manufacturer: Microsoft Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0735619018

Book Description

Now you can apply the techniques that business analysts at leading companies use to analyze and transform data into bottom line results. For more than 10 years, well-known consultant and business professor Wayne Winston has been teaching corporate clients and MBA candidates the most effective ways to use Microsoft Excel for data analysis, modeling, and decision making. This practical, business-focused guide delivers the best of Winston's classroom experience to you in 70+ concise chapters, organized by real-world scenarios. Quickly find and apply exactly the information you need to solve a specific business problem#151;from asset allocation modeling to estimating exponential growth, forecasting sales, optimizing portfolios, and other critical functions. You also get all the book's sample files on CD-ROM#151;ready for use in your own work.

Customer Reviews:

5 out of 5 stars Great Book.......2007-07-21

Excellent...It really help me to better understand the data analysis with many differents case scenarios...exercises...its for everyone.

4 out of 5 stars Real Good for a textbook........2007-05-12

I had to use for a college class, but great speed in shipping.

3 out of 5 stars Not bad, but not as good as expected.......2007-04-13

I am an intermediate to advanced Excel user, so my review may reflect that level. As others have said, it looks like MS rushed this book to the market, evidenced by so many errata, which can be disappointing especially when the solution is wrong. On the other hand, there are some very interesting and genuine uses of various Excel functions to solve business problems.
I wouldn't recommend this book for beginners. If you're trying to learn Excel, this is not the book. It is not a book to teach excel, but a book to teach you what you can do with Excel to solve everyday problems, given you're familiar with the mechanics of excel.
I would recommend it with these caveats. And getting Walkenbach's book on Excel functions along with this would be very helpful in my opinion. Best of luck in your endeavors.

5 out of 5 stars Excellent.......2007-04-11

I have read many books in excel, but this book is really the most beneficial and excellent book I've used in my life. It is full with practical not theoritical examples. and you can benefit form it in your work.

4 out of 5 stars Very practical, but full of errors.......2007-04-02

Overall, I like this book, even though it is somewhat confusing, both in scope and in the target audience.
The techniques of "naming the range" or writing the "if" formula are certainly targeted for beginners, but most of statistical tools are normally used by more advanced users.
The worst thing, though, is that the book is full of errors, both typos and mistakes in problem solutions on the disk. I consider myself an intermediate user, so finding an error in "instructor solution" was more like an additional challenge for me, but for the beginner this could be very frustrating.
On the positive side - I really liked the idea of problems in the end of each chapter; so many books just give you the theory and then you do not know how to solve a real life problem. For most of chapters, I knew the tools, but still had to spend time figuring out the best way to implement it for problem solving.
Very practical book, good for an intermediate users. Just be aware of the typos !
Neural Networks in Finance: Gaining Predictive Edge in the Market (Academic Press Advanced Finance Series)
Average customer rating: 4 out of 5 stars
  • More Mathematical than Technical
Neural Networks in Finance: Gaining Predictive Edge in the Market (Academic Press Advanced Finance Series)
Paul D. McNelis
Manufacturer: Academic Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0124859674

Book Description

This book explores the intuitive appeal of neural networks and the genetic algorithm in finance. It demonstrates how neural networks used in combination with evolutionary computation outperform classical econometric methods for accuracy in forecasting, classification and dimensionality reduction.

McNelis utilizes a variety of examples, from forecasting automobile production and corporate bond spread, to inflation and deflation processes in Hong Kong and Japan, to credit card default in Germany to bank failures in Texas, to cap-floor volatilities in New York and Hong Kong.

* Offers a balanced, critical review of the neural network methods and genetic algorithms used in finance
* Includes numerous examples and applications
* Numerical illustrations use MATLAB code and the book is accompanied by a website

Download Description

This book explores the intuitive appeal of neural networks and the genetic algorithm in finance. It demonstrates how neural networks used in combination with evolutionary computation outperform classical econometric methods for accuracy in forecasting, classification and dimensionality reduction. McNelis utilizes a variety of examples, from forecasting automobile production and corporate bond spread, to inflation and deflation processes in Hong Kong and Japan, to credit card default in Germany to bank failures in Texas, to cap-floor volatilities in New York and Hong Kong.

Customer Reviews:

4 out of 5 stars More Mathematical than Technical.......2006-06-13

Defiantly more of a math book than a programming guide, but that was what I was expecting. This book explains how to use neural networks in the field of finance. It does so very logically and mathematically. You are shown how to apply neural networks to many different financial problems. But you are mostly left to yourself to actually implement the neural networks on a computer system. Some example source code is provided for MathCad, which is an expensive software package you can buy separately.

If you are already comfortable with neural network programming, and are looking to learn to apply neural networks to finance, this book is great. Being a Java programmer I used the open source JOONE package to implement some of the book's examples in Java. Though JOONE is not suited to all examples in the book, it is a good start for a Java programmer.

The book shows how neural networks can be applied to many real world financial problems. The book pays particular interest to international finance. The book examines Hong Kong and Japan, examining inflation, deflation, currency volatility, and other issues.

I found the book to be very useful in giving me an introduction to neural networks in finance.

The table of contents follows:

Chapter 1: Introduction
Part 1: Econometric Foundations
Chapter 2: What Are Neural Networks?
Chapter 3: Estimation of a Network with Evolutionary Computation
Chapter 4: Evaluation of Network Estimation
Part 2: Applications and Examples
Chapter 5: Estimating and Forecasting with Artificial Data
Chapter 6: Time Series: Examples from Industry and Finance
Chapter 7: Inflation and Deflation: Hong Kong and Japan
Chapter 8: Classification: Credit Card Default and Bank Failures
Chapter 9: Dimensionality Reduction and Implied Volatility Forecasting
Investment under Uncertainty
Average customer rating: 3.5 out of 5 stars
  • Not a new theory,but a new way of solving Keynes's theory
  • real options
  • Not For The Faint-Hearted
  • dealing with uncertainty
  • State of the art -- but math is a required subject
Investment under Uncertainty
Avinash K. Dixit , and Robert S. Pindyck
Manufacturer: Princeton University Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0691034109

Book Description

How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending.

This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.

Customer Reviews:

2 out of 5 stars Not a new theory,but a new way of solving Keynes's theory.......2004-07-23

Dixit and Pindyck(DP)have not come up with a new theory of investment. The three aspects that they deal with in their theory are the irreversibility of costly fixed plant and equipment,the uncertainty of the information base upon which the probabilities will be estimated,and the timing of the investment project over a series of future time periods.DP correctly point out that the NPV rule does not deal with the uncertainty of the information base upon which the probabilities will be calculated while also ignoring the question of the timing of a project,given that additional new relevant information on the potential expected profitability of a project may be forthcoming in future time periods.Thus, there is a value that can be assigned to waiting for this additional relevant evidence to occur in the future.The Net Present Value( NPV) rule or the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)only deals with risk,not uncertainty.Both of these rules assume the existence of a unique,well defined probability distribution that satisfies the law of large numbers.A decision maker need only concern himself with the variability of the outcomes over time. This is measured by the standard deviation.DP demonstrate that the standard approach to investment theory discounts only for time and risk while ignoring uncertainty or conflating uncertainty with risk.DP advocate an additional discount for uncertainty.DP obtain this result using the calculus of variations, optimal control theory,stochastic control theory and dynamic programming.These techniques,while interesting ,are not necessary in order to obtain the given result.A much less advanced mathematical approach was used by John Maynard Keynes to obtain approximately the same result.A criticism of this book would be the failure on the part of DP to mention the similarities between their theory and that of Keynes.Keynes's theory is covered in chapters 11,12 and 17 of Keynes's 1936 book ,titled the General Theory(GT).In chapter 17 ,Keynes makes a very important addition to the theory of the previously mentioned chapters on pages 239-241 where Keynes points out that the decision maker must also discount for uncertainty as well as for risk and time preference.Keynes's footnote on page 240 of the GT directs the reader to his technical model contained in chapter 26 of A Treatise on Probability, called a conventional coefficient of weight and risk c.In order to obtain approximately the same result as obtained by DP,one needed only multiply Keynes's NPV model of chapter 11 of the GT by the c coefficient.

5 out of 5 stars real options.......2004-05-03

ok, i found this book is very important and give a new vision to understant the world of investement under uncertainty , further it demonstrate a new application nommed real options, by this new model we can making same decision with integrating the notion of flexibility in procesus of investement

2 out of 5 stars Not For The Faint-Hearted.......2000-01-28

Investment Under Undertainty by Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck has been an important book in the 1990's because it introduced a relatively new subject to a new and eager audience when there was little else available outside of original research papers. Many of us are grateful to the authors for this introduction. However, newcomers should be aware that they omit large and crucial details of implementation [example: chapter 4, section 1H, pages 110-112 including the graphs on page 111: a newcomer will be lost; if you wait until the appendix to chapter 10, on numerical solution, then you may or may not note the printing errors]. The book is not for the faint-hearted beginner; even the simplest material, such as valuation of a perpetuity (see Corporate Finance by Brealey & Myers - very easy) occurs in a form which the beginner or skim-reading manager might not readily recognise (chapter 5, section 1A, pages 138-139); but then this book is not for them.

See also Real Options by Lenos Trigeorgis, who writes as if he keenly wants you to have fast access to his subject. For someone writing purely on the mathematical finance aspects, read anything by Paul Wilmott, who is clearly both clever and an exceptional educator

5 out of 5 stars dealing with uncertainty.......2000-01-06

When searching for a framework for my PhD, I encountered Dixit's 1991 exposition on investmetn under uncertainty, in Journal of Economic Perspective. I was immeadiately hooked on option theory and its applications. Both authors of this splendid book are authorities in this field. The book is ideal for advanced MBA students with some mathamatics background. It is also suitable for PhD students in economics and finance. However students with math or engineering backgrounds may also benefit from reading this book.

As this book has repeatedly demonstrate, investmet in a uncertain world involves exercising an option. I mat asure the readers and buyers alike, investing in this book will yield high returns for your time and money.

5 out of 5 stars State of the art -- but math is a required subject.......1999-08-24

Let me say that this is not a book for those looking for investment advice or get-rich-quick schemes. It is also not a book for those who think that an MBA and an HP12C are all you need to understand the basic theory behind investments, options, etc.

It is a mathematical subject...and to those with a good mathematical background, the book is remarkably well-organized and easy to understand. I found this book to be very helpful in my research.
Foundations of Multinational Financial Management
Average customer rating: 3.5 out of 5 stars
  • Wordy and confusing
  • Can be confusing, major focus on economics
  • Excellent book.
Foundations of Multinational Financial Management
Alan C. Shapiro
Manufacturer: Wiley
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Accessories:
  1. Study Guide to accompany Foundations of Multinational Financial Management, 5th Edition Study Guide to accompany Foundations of Multinational Financial Management, 5th Edition

ASIN: 0471563374

Book Description

All too often, companies focus on the threats and risks inherent in venturing abroad. But multinational firms actually have unique opportunities that are not available to purely domestic firms. Now updated, revised, and reorganized, Alan Shapiro’s Foundations of Multinational Financial Management, 5/e will help you take advantage of these valuable opportunities. Foundations emphasizes broad concepts and practices and provides a clear conceptual framework for analyzing key financial decisions in multinational firms. The text treats international financial management as a natural and logical extension of the principles learned in the foundations course in financial management.

Customer Reviews:

2 out of 5 stars Wordy and confusing.......2006-05-02

The author uses a lot of wordy language to make simple concepts complicated. Also I agree with another review: there is a lot of macroeconomics. I think Dr. Shapiro needs to understand how his readers learn, not how he can enjoy his writing.

3 out of 5 stars Can be confusing, major focus on economics.......1999-06-11

This textbook may not be a good choice for undergraduate students or for someone who does not have an intermediate or higher knowledge of finance. Wording in the chapters and in the end of chapter problems can be confusing. Statements are made and then not backed up with supporting information. The book spends a large amount of time on a macroeconomic view.

5 out of 5 stars Excellent book........1999-06-11

We adopted this book during the first semester of 1999 with excellent results. Our students were delighted with the practical approach, and the breadth of its contents. Recently our country has been through a monetary turmoil, and the book served very much to explain the policies that our local central bank authorities have been pursuing.
The Portable MBA in Economics (The Portable MBA Series)
Average customer rating: 4 out of 5 stars
  • A novel way to explain economics
The Portable MBA in Economics (The Portable MBA Series)
Philip K. Y. Young , and John J. McAuley
Manufacturer: Wiley
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0471595268

Book Description

This essential addition to the acclaimed Portable MBA Series contains an important group of concepts and skills in order to understand the business environment along with a framework for making business decisions. Demonstrates how to assess economic news and apply this information to business forecasting and such problems as pricing product and whether to initiate a marketing campaign. Features an economic tool kit which explains economic indicators, the Federal Reserve's role, foreign trade and exchange rates, how to analyze demand for a product and pricing cost benefit evaluation. Includes numerous examples and case studies.

Customer Reviews:

2 out of 5 stars A novel way to explain economics.......2005-12-26

The authors have made a great effort writing this book, which is divided up in two parts: macro- and microeconomics. It gives insight of how we should understand current economic affairs on both the macronomical and micronomical levels. The book does serve this purpose quite well. I particularly liked the summary at the end of each chapter.
The book does however lack in solid economic theory, which makes this book inconsistent. If you are an economics student I would not recommend it for you to actually study economics (there are better books around for that), but merely as a reference to understand that theory is what you learn at univerity, and understanding the theory in practice comes usually afterwards.
The big lack of this book is that it is only based from an American point of view and thus is not very useful for anyone living outside the US. Even the international economics chapter won't satisfy your desire to really understand what's is actually going on (when you don't live in the US). What this book totally fails to point out is that the US economy is very different to most other economies in the world.
On the whole two stars were awarded for this book, as I think that it is very useful to help your understand the current economic affairs. At the same time it fails in providing solid economic theory, it is based far too much on the US economy, and it is incomplete on other parts. Yet, if you live in the US, are studying economics and want to understand what it all means in practice, this book will help you! If not, don't bother.
Schaum's Quick Guide to Business Formulas: 201 Decision-Making Tools for Business, Finance, and Accounting Students
Average customer rating: 5 out of 5 stars
  • Nice Handbook for Accounting students
  • Effective refresher ... Efficient reference
  • Not just for students
  • GREAT!
Schaum's Quick Guide to Business Formulas: 201 Decision-Making Tools for Business, Finance, and Accounting Students
Joel G. Siegel , Jae K. Shim , and Stephen W. Hartman
Manufacturer: McGraw-Hill
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0070580316

Book Description

For quick and authoritative answers to questions on business and financial formulas and tools, this unique book is unequaled! It not only clearly explains all major business and financial formulas, it shows you how to apply them, step by step. Perfect for college and graduate students in business, finance, marketing, operations, management, and accounting, this comprehensive, portable guide gives you quick access to all major financial and business formulas with explanations you can grasp and use in seconds. You get explanations, examples, and demonstrations of formulas for vertical analysis; net-cost method; sales mix analysis; regression statistics; profit margin; sampling formulas; discount cash flow analysis; weighted averages; cost of capital; earnings per share; inventory turnover; and nearly 200 more. This is the handiest tool available for mastering business formulas!

Customer Reviews:

4 out of 5 stars Nice Handbook for Accounting students.......2007-02-20

The book is a nice handbook for students majoring in Finance and Accounting students. It has all the necessary explanations of the formulas along with good examples.As a person with some exposure to Finance and Accounting,I found the book to be extremely useful for students and pros in this field.

5 out of 5 stars Effective refresher ... Efficient reference.......2007-01-07

I recommend this text to financial professionals I teach ... VERY helpful to clear the cobwebs several years after college!

5 out of 5 stars Not just for students.......2002-05-28

This is a reprint of "McGraw-Hill Pocket Guide to Business Finance: 201 Decision-Making Tools for Managers" with a single difference. The now out-or-print book came with a runtime version of MathCAD and formulas for using each of the tools, while this new version does not. Also, don't let the title fool you - this book is as useful to working professionals as it is to students.

The 201 tools contained in this small, highly useful book range from Acid Test (doing a quick ratio of financials) to Z-Scores. Each tool is listed alphabetically, its use explained, and instructions on how to use it is provided. What I particularly liked is the worked examples that accompany each tool.

As an IT consultant who specializes in service delivery this book is not one I would normally include in my professional library. I was introduced to it when a colleague and I were writing a white paper on recovery management. We were searching for a way to link business imperatives to justification for investment in recovery strategies. We found one piece of the puzzle in this book - the Altman Z-Score. This tool predicts whether or not a company is likely to enter into bankruptcy within one or two years. This led to the development of a copyrighted model that addressed survival level objectives, and also became a key part of the Tarrani-Zarate Information Technologies Management Model. All this from a single entry in a small book!

Aside from discovering a relatively obscure, but important, tool I also found other useful tools in this book. Because I am not a business consultant or financial expert the tools were like a cram course in financial management for non-financial people. For example, I was able to apply some of the tools to personal financial matters - the real costs of a loan become quickly apparent when you compute them. I was also able to employ some of the tools to conduct realistic cost/benefit analyses, examine trade-offs supporting approaches to projects, etc. In this respect this small book has significantly improved my professional skills and has inspired me to read other books on financial management.

I strongly recommend this book - collection of tools really - to anyone who deals with finance, anyone who has P&L responsibilities, and business and IT consultants. The latter group will find this book to be invaluable for developing proposals, deliverables and project plans that add value.

5 out of 5 stars GREAT!.......2002-01-12

This book saved me through four accounting courses three finance courses and two real estate courses. It is well organized and easy to locate any formula that is needed.
Quantitative Risk Analysis: A Guide to Monte Carlo Simulation Modelling
Average customer rating: 4 out of 5 stars
  • Risk Analysis
  • Best Book for Quantitative Risk Analysis
  • 1st edition more useful to a practitioner than the 2nd
  • Rigouros, clear and practical
  • Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide
Quantitative Risk Analysis: A Guide to Monte Carlo Simulation Modelling
David Vose
Manufacturer: John Wiley & Sons Ltd (Import)
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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  3. Risk Assessment And Decision Making In Business And Industry: A Practical Guide - Second Edition Risk Assessment And Decision Making In Business And Industry: A Practical Guide - Second Edition
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  5. Foundations of Risk Analysis: A Knowledge and Decision-Oriented Perspective Foundations of Risk Analysis: A Knowledge and Decision-Oriented Perspective

ASIN: 0471958034

Book Description

Risk Analysis A Quantitative Guide Risk and uncertainty are key features of most business and government problems and need to be understood for rational decisions to be made. This book concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modelling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Following on from the success of the previous edition of this clearly written and highly regarded book, this edition is extensively revised and updated and will provide an invaluable practical guide for beginners and experienced practitioners alike. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modelling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems. Reviews of the first edition "It identifies the various facets of risk analysis and provides a valuable reference to the concepts and techniques employed." Project, 1997 "It clearly explains many essential aspects of quantitative risk analysis . provides valuable techniques and sound professional advice." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 12, 1999 "The book offers a powerful method for dealing with risk and uncertainty." Zentralblatt für Mathematik, Band 908, 1999

Customer Reviews:

4 out of 5 stars Risk Analysis.......2006-05-24

A very good book, but a bit too much mathematical detail in deriving formulas for probability distributions; could use better descriptions of when to use each probability distribution.

5 out of 5 stars Best Book for Quantitative Risk Analysis.......2004-04-25

I believe that this book is the best of many Risk Analysis books. The book's structure, starting from fundamental topics and guiding to advanced topics, is excellent. So, I translated this book into Japanese! You will make the best use of the book with Excel add-in Monte Carlo simulation software like @Risk and Crystal ball that you can get its trial version from the vendor's site(free!). But, the value of this book is not decreased with its sophistitated notation even if you don't have such software. You can enjoy the logic of Quantitative Risk Analysis. Now, the author is preparing his original software. I hope it will be as valuable as this book.

2 out of 5 stars 1st edition more useful to a practitioner than the 2nd.......2003-10-18

Unlike in the first edition, the author seems to have tried his best to eliminate any reference to any simulation software in the second edition. Result: it now reads like any academic simulation text, only less. The first edition wasn't broke. Why fix it? Bring back the classic Vose!

5 out of 5 stars Rigouros, clear and practical.......2003-04-20

This book gives a deep insight into the state of the art and recent developments of quantitative risk analysis using simulation methods. Describes topics such as second order risk analysis I never heard about before. I used the knowledge drawn from this book to write some technical papers (published on peer-reviewed journals and seminars proceedings). Specialized software, such as @-risk and crystal ball is not strictly needed to carry out the risk-analysis systems suggested by the author (but pretty advanced skills with excel or use of math softwares are required). The specific subject of the book is risk modelling by Monte Carlo Simulation and Bayesan analysis; it does not deal with fuzzy models or other uncertainty-propagation methods. I highly reccomend this book to anyone interested into the specific subject.

3 out of 5 stars Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide.......2001-08-25

I purchased this book to learn to write simulation equations in excel but only found it was a manual ( type book ) with good information for a very expensive software I did not have....If you have RISK software, it is a great book to have... I returned my copy w/o scanning the entire book.
Mastering Collateral Management and Documentation: A Practical Guide for Negotiators
Average customer rating: Not rated
    Mastering Collateral Management and Documentation: A Practical Guide for Negotiators
    Paul C. Harding , and Christian A. Johnson
    Manufacturer: Financial Times Management
    ProductGroup: Book
    Binding: Paperback

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    ASIN: 0273659243
    Behavioral Corporate Finance (Mcgraw-Hill/Irwin Series in Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate)
    Average customer rating: 5 out of 5 stars
    • Excellent Book
    Behavioral Corporate Finance (Mcgraw-Hill/Irwin Series in Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate)
    Hersh Shefrin
    Manufacturer: McGraw-Hill/Irwin
    ProductGroup: Book
    Binding: Paperback

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    3. Advances in Behavioral Finance Advances in Behavioral Finance
    4. A History of the Theory of Investments: My Annotated Bibliography (Wiley Finance) A History of the Theory of Investments: My Annotated Bibliography (Wiley Finance)
    5. Advances in Behavioral Finance, Volume II (The Roundtable Series in Behavioral Economics) Advances in Behavioral Finance, Volume II (The Roundtable Series in Behavioral Economics)

    Accessories:
    1. The Essentials of Risk Management The Essentials of Risk Management

    ASIN: 0072848650

    Book Description

    Behavioral Corporate Finance identifies the key psychological obstacles to value maximizing behavior, along with steps that managers can take to mitigate the effects of these obstacles. The main goal of the book is to help students learn how to put the traditional tools of corporate finance to their best use, and mitigate the effects of psychological obstacles that reduce value.

    Customer Reviews:

    5 out of 5 stars Excellent Book.......2006-04-20

    This book is very informative and easy to read. It is written in a way that won't bore you at all. I have tried to read several books about behavioral finance but I found out they're either too long or boring which made me lose interest in the first chapter. Though, with this book, it didn't happen as it is well-written and very interesting. The examples, given to illustrate the points were quite interesting and simple to understand. I very much enjoyed reading about behavioral finance and the biases that managers, investors and financial analysts have when making their decisions. The book is divided into 11 chapters. I highly recommend this books for people who want to know more about behavioral finance.

    1. Behavioral Foundations
    2. Valuation
    3. Capital Budgeting
    4. Perceptions about Risk & Return.
    5. Inefficient Markets and Corporate Decisions
    6. Capital Structure
    7. Dividend Policy
    8. Agency Conflicts and Corporate Governance
    9. Group Process
    10. Mergers & Acquisitions
    11. Applications of Real-option techniques to Capital Budgeting and Capital Structure(only available at the book's site)

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    1. Agency, Partnerships, and LLC's: Examples and Explanations (Examples & Explanations Series)
    2. All Real Estate Is Local: What You Need to Know to Profit in Real Estate - in a Buyer's and a Seller's Market
    3. All Real Estate Is Local: What You Need to Know to Profit in Real Estate - in a Buyer's and a Seller's Market
    4. Applied Logistic Regression, Textbook and Solutions Manual (Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics)
    5. Arab Human Development Report 2004: Towards Freedom in the Arab World
    6. Asset Protection : Concepts and Strategies for Protecting Your Wealth
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    10. Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World with CD-ROM

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