Book Description
Praise for Crash Proof
"The dot-com implosion proves that we all need Peter Schiff's vision of investing.?His view is so global and so unique in its approach, and at a time when we all should be looking to crash-proof our portfolios, Schiff offers us this much-needed life-raft."
—Liz Claman, Cohost, CNBC Morning Call
"For those accustomed to America's economic dominance, Crash Proof is a frighteningly forthright wake-up call. But Peter Schiff is one Cassandra whose voice deserves your rapt attention. Devoid of the usual Wall Street spin, this frank and prophetic read will make you reconsider the very foundations on which your financial house is built."
—Jonathan Hoenig, Portfolio Manager, Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC and FOX News Channel analyst
"Schiff does an outstanding job of outlining the dangers to individual investors of the current economic environment and presents a plausible plan about how to deal with the risks."
—David W. Tice, Portfolio Manager, Prudent Bear Funds
"A sober assessment of the financial problems facing our country. Reading this book will prepare you for potential outcomes that Wall Street and the mainstream financial media are completely unaware of."
—Bill Fleckenstein, founder and President of Fleckenstein Capital and MSN.com Money columnist
Customer Reviews:
To Weather Economic Storms.......2007-10-06
I heard a radio interview with Peter Schiff and was very impressed with what he had to say, so much so that I purchased two copies of "Crash Proof", one for me and one for my son. I am advising my son to discuss Mr. Schiff's investment recommendations with his certified financial planner after he finishes the book.
this book is a buy........2007-10-06
I enjoyed the book. everyone who is worried about the economic trend in the US should read this book. I is a buy because it's a book that one can keep for future reference.
Crash Proof if you have the assets!.......2007-10-05
My wife and I read this and found it very helpful. It makes sense. However, our assets only amount to 40K. We are retired and all of our income is from SS and a pension in dollars. There is nothing we can do about this. We moved almost all of our assets out of dollars.
If and when the US economy collapses, we will be hurt badly even if our 40K remains solid.
Quarterlife Finance says, "Read it with a grain of salt.".......2007-10-03
Consider this scenario: The domestic manufacturing sector is all but gone. Housing prices crash and billions of dollars of unrealized equity evaporate almost overnight. Consumer spending drops and the US service economy, driven by consumer spending and propped up by foreign investment and trade deficits, crashes. Foreign investors see the weakness and stop buying dollar denominated assets, furthering the dollar's free-fall. Our interest rates shoot skyward, and at the same time we suffer hyperinflation. This catastrophic chain of events leads to a tremendous depression that leaves millions of Americans penniless and unemployed.
That is just one of the possible scenarios foreseen by Schiff and Downes in their 2007 book Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books). This book makes for an interesting read, though one to be taken with a grain of salt. The book combines dire doom-and-gloom predictions with a healthy dose of mistrust for the government. If the authors were not so absolutely correct about many of the points in the book, it wouldn't deserve a second look. The authors' predictions are proving valid with each day that goes by, though, so I think this book is worth reading.
The book spends the first seven chapters discussing why the US economy is about to collapse. The author delves into the shift from a manufacturing to a service economy and the possible consequences. He examines inflation and convincingly explains why he believes that the government manipulates inflation indicators to hide the truth. He predicts a sharp decline in the dollar for many reasons, including the possibility that the dollar may no longer be the world's reserve currency after a few years.
He goes on to consider the chaos that has affected the stock market in recent years, and how the tech bubble never really burst but rather shifted into housing. He predicts a decline in housing on par with or greater than the tech crash at the beginning of this decade. He predicts that the same dollars will go towards creating a commodity bubble and result in even greater inflation. Before giving us his answer to these problems, he caps his analysis with a coup de grace - the problem of debt in the US. The author is very concerned about the levels of consumer debt, lack of home equity, and US government debt that threaten to overwhelm both US citizens and the economy as a whole.
Finally, we are given the answer to this impending crisis in three simple steps: move most of your investment dollars into foreign dividend-paying stocks and gold, and hold a reserve of liquidity (preferably in foreign currency) to allow you to take advantage of investment opportunities as the domestic economy comes crashing down around you.
I liked this book for many reasons. For one, it presents a worst-case scenario that deserves serious consideration given the veracity of some of the authors' claims. Second, it presents interesting reading. I particularly enjoyed the authors' analogy of the current world economy to an island on which six Asians work around-the-clock to feed, clothe, and shelter the sole American - who benefits the Asians by giving them a reason to produce.
Most interestingly, the author hit the nail on the head with respect to both housing and the declining dollar. An investor in February, 2007 (when this book was published) would have done very well moving his portfolio to gold and foreign stocks.
However, there were some major problems with this book, in my opinion. First and foremost, the book ends with a shameless plug for the authors' investment company. If his ideas are that excellent, he should not need to plug his brokerage....clients will find him regardless. Also, he presents his company as the single outlet for implementing his plan. I would appreciate two or three unbiased options (low-cost foreign index funds, for example) - otherwise his entire book seems like a fear-based ploy to increase his own business with little regard for his clients.
The authors also make a strong case for dividends over capital appreciation. However, if you are a believer in efficient markets, singling out dividend-paying stocks will not result in a greater return than the market as a whole.
Lastly, a major premise of the book is that the lack of manufacturing in America will lead to a decline in the dollar, inflation, and recession. However, I think it is important to note that a declining dollar may serve to bolster our manufacturing sector by making our products more competitive both domestically and internationally. So the very problem the authors present could potentially solve itself.
Overall, the authors do an excellent job of considering the potential for a decline in the US economy, and present some interesting strategies to mitigate the effects of the crash. Even if you disagree with the authors, some of their strategies (including investment in foreign securities and gold) have a place in almost every portfolio.
Good to be aware of this, don't have to agree...........2007-10-03
I saw Peter Schiff on CNBC and was drawn to his style. I love the fact that he stands up to these idiot talking heads that think everything is "pretty good".. the economy is basically strong they will tell you. Well I tend to agree with Schiff's views. Worth the read.
Book Description
"Sometime in the next five years you may kick yourself for not reading and re-reading Kindleberger's Manias, Panics, and Crashes." -Paul A. Samuelson, Institute Professor Emeritus, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
"One never picks up a work by Charles Kindleberger without anticipating a feast of entertainment. But underneath the hilarious anecdotes, the elegant epigrams, and the graceful turns of phrase, Kindleberger is deadly serious. The manner in which human beings earn their livings is no laughing matter to him, especially when they attempt to do so at the expense of one another." -from the Foreword by Peter L. Bernstein, author of Against the Gods and The Power of Gold
Praise for Manias, Panics, and Crashes
"Classic. . . . Manias, Panics, and Crashes is a durable guide to meditation: wise, witty, and practical. It is a template against which to measure the latest financial crisis-whatever and whenever that happens to be." -David Warsh, Boston Globe
"Definitive." -Floyd Norris, New York Times
"Menacing..." -The New Yorker
"[Manias, Panics, and Crashes] is a scholarly account of the way that mismanagement of money and credit has led to financial explosions over the centuries."-Richard Lambert, Financial Times
"This book sparkles with the best of Kindleberger's wit, insight, and passion for financial history. A real delight."-Robert Z. Aliber, Professor of International Economics and Finance, University of Chicago, Graduate School of Business
"What long has been the best history of financial pathologies is now even better. The reader who absorbs Kindleberger's lessons will be prepared to foresee and navigate the financial crises that surely lie ahead. Like a true classic, Manias, Panics, and Crashes is both timely and timeless." -Richard Sylla, Kaufman Professor of Financial History, Stern School of Business, New York University
Customer Reviews:
A classic -- but showing its age.......2006-09-25
This book probably deserves the title of "classic", being one of the first attempts by an economist to popularize for a broader audience a theory of speculative financial bubbles that takes into account "modern" macroeconomic theory (e.g. Keynes and the monetarists). The book identifies many common themes among some of the great financial manias in history, providing along the way some entertaining anecdotes and commentary.
Nevertheless, classic or not, I was a bit disapointed with the book. After 30 years and several editions it seems to be showing its age, with numerous uneven and unconvincing attempts to update the text to the late 20th century. I also found that the many historical examples were not well told or clearly differentiated and tended to blend together. Chancellor's "Devil take the Hindmost" seems to do a better job at providing a history of the great speculative bubbles. Most importantly, Kindelberger writes alot about what goverbnments should do after crashes occur, but he does not help much with a useful framework for spotting bubbles as they emerge -- or understanding how they tend to unravel.
Great Scholarly work but how does an investor make a buck?.......2006-02-26
I don't recommend this book for a general business audience. It does a fine job of chronicling various panics. I was hoping for a book that focused on causes of panics and manias and how to identify one when you are in it.
Speculation leads to disaster and must be borne by the central bank........2005-12-08
Speculation excesses are referred too as mania and revulsion from these excesses take the form of crisis, crashes, or panic which are historically common. The excess speculation builds as investor seize new opportunities for profits and are overdone. Hyman Minsky describes these new opportunities as the result of displacement. Displacement are events leading up to a crisis, such as, outbreak or end of war, bumper harvest or crop failure, widespread adoption of an invention, or some political event. Displacement must be a significant size. Displacement brings opportunities for profit and increased demand causes price to rise. Banks artificially increase supply without proportional increases in demand by expanding the money supply that demand would have generated. The money supply expansion is notoriously unstable. Feedback fuels Euphoria for price increase; the Euphoria turns investment from really valuable products to delusional ones. Boom is characterized as rising interest rates, as Banks threaten discredit and hedge against the speculation by raising rates; trading velocity increases and the velocity of circulation and turnover ratios rise; and stock prices increases. Boom is fed by expansion caused by bank credit; credit increases the money supply and destablizes the investment.
Once the excessive character of the upswing is realized, the financial system experiences a distress and then rushes to reverse expansion resembling panic: real or financial assets converting to money, premature repayment of debt, and prices crashes in commodities. Minsky explains that selling at the top falters because there is not enough money too sell out at the top.
Revulsion of the commodity halts banks from lending on the commodity as collateral, this is called discredit. Discredit leads the panic as people crowd to get out the door. People may stop trying to get out the door, if price falls and the commodity looks like a bargin, trade is cut and price declines stop hemmoraging, or a lender convinces the market money will become available. When the economy becomes depressed, Banks view borrowing as a risky prospect and may prefer to put their money in government securities.
Banks fail when too many borrowers default on their loans and the borrowers collateral is not enough to cover the debt. Inflation and deflation should not affect long term growth. When prices fall a corresponding drop in wages also may occur. Employment and purchasing power remain neutral. Wo, comes unto the borrower. The borrower suffers because the debts are fixed. The creditor benefits because expense money is returned in debt payments and this money can buy more, a value added function. Depression is characterized by a reluctance for banks to loan money, discreditation of the commodities to be used as collateral decreases the amount of loanable money the bank is willing to extend to the borrower, and tight money slows growth.
The world markets operate as if men are rationale over the long run. Irrationality may exist as economic actors choose the wrong economic model, fail to account for a particular piece of information, or fail despite a rational expectation as lags between stimulus and reaction fail to meet expectation. Composite fallacy confuses the truth, as investors believe that the whole is more than the sum of its parts. Speculation leads to disaster and must be borne by the central bank.
Superb treatment of the speculative nature of financial markets.......2005-09-29
Kindleberger's book provides massive historical evidence to support his assessment of the boom-bust nature of financial markets.Basically,speculative excesses,financed in large part by margin account loans and easy bank credit,leads to a pattern where the debt load of many market participants is overleveraged.Like the straw that breaks the camel's back,all it takes is an exogenous(or endogenous) shock to pop the speculative bubble .The value of the underlying assets of the overleveraged market participants collapses.These individuals go bankrupt,causing a chain reaction as other participants are impacted by the bankruptcies and up bankrupt themselves.Kindleberger correctly identifies the major theorists of this outlook as I.Fisher(his debt-deflation theory)and H.Minsky(his financial fragility theory).There are a few small defects.First,Benoit Mandelbrot's nearly fifty years of statistical-empirical work on the "wild " risk inherent in all of the different financial markets worldwide would have provided a perfect fit with the historical and anecdotal evidence that Kindleberger has collected.Second,there is only a brief footnote on the role of exogenous "sunspot"uncertainty going on in this historical process.Kindleberger overlooks the technical analysis of the effect of uncertainty, in microscopic,decision theoretic terms,on decisions made by Keynes(Keynesian uncertainty)and Ellsberg(Ellsbergian ambiguity).The problem here is not necessarily irrational decision makers,but rational decision makers who lack sufficient relevant information to apply the standard neoclassical decision techniques.These decision makers KNOW that they don't know.They then decide to follow those whom they believe are better informed.This leads to crowd,herd,and cascade effects that both creates the bubble and the crash.One possible way to stop this recurring pattern would be to eliminate margin loans Third,Kindleberger appears to be unaware that Keynes would agree with most of Kindleberger's case.From Keynes's early 1910 lectures on the negative impacts of speculation on stock markets through the A Tract on Monetary Reform,A Treatise on Money,and the General Theory(chapters 12,17,and 22),one can find Kindleberger's points explicitly considered in Keynes's work.Of course,Keynes does not provide the vast historical evidence that Kindleberger provides.Keynes would likely argue that ,since his theory is a general theory of decision making under conditions of risk,uncertainty,and ignorance that applies where ever organized financial markets exist,he would already know what the historical record would show if examined in historical detail.
A must for your collection.......2004-12-17
This book lays out the blueprint to spot a financial crisis in the making.
A. Plenty of money in supply and preferably at cheap rates.
B. A 'new technology'-from the birth of railroad stocks, to letter stocks of the 1960s and dot coms of the late 1990s.
C. A willing and enthusiastic media outlet (think CNBC and the dot com boom).
D. Cab drivers and plumbers suddenly trading actively in the respective markets. Another note I would throw in is when the investment community are saying 'it is different this time, simple valuation of securities is no longer possible'.
Kindleberger's work draws on this scenario time and time again.
A required reading for anyone actively trading in the markets.
Book Description
We've all heard the reports—the great housing boom that has fueled premium prices and sellers' dreams is slowing down. The real estate market may experience ups and downs like any other, but it's not likely to implode spontaneously. With proper planning and a little knowledge, homeowners, investors, and other stakeholders can avoid disaster and in fact profit on their properties regardless of what the market does. Beyond the Bubble takes a balanced look at what drives changes in real estate markets and how these changes affect property owners and investors. Readers will learn:
* the history, nature, and dynamics of market `bubbles'
* how to anticipate a coming downturn and act accordingly
* the regional nature of real estate market conditions
* differences and similarities in residential and commercial markets
* other profit strategies when selling is difficult or impossible
* how to analyze the market using facts, not hype
Thorough and well-reasoned, Beyond the Bubble will help property owners maintain a strong and level foundation for their financial futures.
Customer Reviews:
Learn How to Handle Real Estate Bubbles.......2007-08-14
The authors examine the components of real estate bubbles and provide useful guidance in detecting changing conditions to determine when a bubble is present. The book provides readers with a roadmap to become aware of the key factors affecting real estate prices and learn how to predict real estate price increases and decreases.
According to the authors, there is neither a single real estate market in the United States, nor a single bubble due to regional differences. Certain markets will remain hot because of the location, climate, jobs, etc., while other cities may experience declines due to excess speculation and price increases (for example, Florida and California).
The five phases of a bubble and the history of bubbles are described so that readers can understand what to look for. The four signs to recognize that a real estate market is about to change are fleshed out. They include: activity of development and inventory available, speculation increasing near the top, market statistics turn negative, and lending statistics become ominous. The authors also describe bubbles by property type (residential, retail and commercial). Moreover, the ten key factors to consider when making an objective decision about a real estate purchase that you are interested in is covered in detail.
Other topics covered in the book are how to use real estate in your investment portfolio, using options on real estate, how to profit in rising or falling real estate markets, and limited partnerships, REITS, ETF and REITs
Anyone considering buying a house, especially in an inflated market should read this book before making a move. Knowledge is power, especially in real estate negotiations.
Great Book.......2007-06-27
Great Book. very informative. Puts things in plain language and easy to understand.
Only wish I had read it sooner.
If you're an investor, get it, read it and highlight parts of it.
Book Description
America’s Bubble Economy is the first book to focus on several simultaneous financial bubbles that are interacting to temporarily boost—and ultimately threaten—the United States and world economies. Filled with expert analysis and straight talk, this book will show you how to turn the coming economic transformation into a once-in-a-lifetime wealth-building opportunity.
Customer Reviews:
Big on assertions, little on proofs or data.......2007-08-09
The authors make a common mistake of talking about numbers (like federal deficits) in absolute terms. These numbers are always big, and create an immediate feeling they must be bad. Compared to our GNP and our national return on assets, how much debt is good, and how much is bad? Unfortunately these questions are never addressed by the authors. The authors make many "self-evident" assertions, and then create scenerios based upon these assertions. Don't look to this book for involved analysis on why the assertions might be true. Buy this book if you are already convinced and want some very general ideas on how to deal with bubbles.
An "Easy Read" (repetitive and simplistic).......2007-04-25
"America's Bubble Economy" tells us what we already have heard countless times - the stock market, consumer spending, home values, the trade deficit, consumer debt, and the government deficit are all UP SHARPLY! Japan and China now hold our future in their hands!
Recommendations include 1)avoid real estate, except for personal use (why not also recommend renting?), buy gold, commodities, and Euros (won't that create new bubbles?), stash cash in short-term funds, avoid jobs in the capital sector (most have already moved to China; what about service jobs vulnerable to India?), and become employed in healthcare or transportation (what about the current slide in trucking jobs and President Bush's efforts to let Mexican truckers in?).
Yes, I do think we have serious problems - however, "America's Bubble Economy" is too simplistic.
Colladoproperties.com.......2007-03-28
There are five bubbles in the economy, and thats not including the false promises of Social security and medicare.
Its not even including the fact that we are in peak oil.
The reality is that we have Real Estate overpriced and beginning to fall towards a crash.
The dollar approaching 80, after that its a spiral downward.
Consumer Debt is at its highest in history. People are litteraly in debt to their eyeballs.
An international trade deficit with China that may well make us one of the poorest nation in the coming future.
A national Debt of 7 billion/week.
Do not ignore the warning signs.
This book will tell you how to get prepaired.
Bleak view of the US economy, and sadly, completely accurate........2007-02-15
I've read several books recently about profiting from real estate, economic theory, the future of the US economy, etc, and I am more than a little freaked out to report that this book is both the most scary of the bunch and is also panning out to be the most accurate.
I've been recommending "America's Bubble Economy" relentlessly to my friends, and I've changed my investment strategies accordingly. Now I cross my fingers, bite my nails, and hope that Wiedemer, against all common sense and logic, is overexaggerating.
Great Analysis.......2007-01-04
Great Analysis! Am not sure that I agree with all of the conclusions, only time will tell.
Amazon.com
Many Americans have resisted the notion that their country is an imperial power. The idea seems to contradict the values of the Republic and its Founding Fathers. But in Empire of Debt, prominent financial analysts Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin argue passionately that not only is the United States an empire, but it is also one whose end is coming soon. Bonner and Wiggin are the brains behind www.dailyreckoning.com, an iconoclastic and irreverent market advisory service that has long raised concerns about American indebtedness and warned of a looming dollar crisis. In Empire of Debt, a sequel to their earlier doom-and-gloom book Financial Reckoning Day, they elaborate on their argument that the U.S. economy is about to implode.
Bonner and Wiggin enumerate a long list of chronic ailments that imperil the American financial system--a massive trade deficit, soaring personal and government debt, a housing bubble, runaway military expenditures. These problems "hardly disturb the sleep of the imperial race," the authors write. "[But] all empires must pass away." Bonner and Wiggin argue that American imperial delusions are similar to the fantasies that fueled the dot-com market mania. They recommend readers buy gold as insurance in the event of a financial crisis. Empire of Debt flounders when discussing how America indebted itself; the authors blame the Federal Reserve Board's low interest rates but gloss over the fact that rates were slashed because the U.S. teetered on the brink of deflation in 2002 and 2003 (a topic they give more attention to in Financial Reckoning Day). As hardcore free-marketeers, Bonner and Wiggin also seem to long for the pre-welfare days of the 1920s but forget how that period's policies led to the Great Depression. That said, Empire of Debt contains many revelations that will open eyes. --Alex Roslin
Book Description
In Empire of Debt, maverick financial writers Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin provide you with the first in-depth look at how the American character has shifted to accommodate its new imperial role; how we have abandoned the private virtues of personal liberty, economic freedom, and fiscal restraint; and how the government has gained control of public life and the economy.
Customer Reviews:
Caustic & Straightforward, But..........2007-07-31
Darkly humourous--unlike assessments written at dailyreckoning.com; however, I disagree with the authors' view on the Second World War. I don't think that America, "empire" or not, Depression or not, would have sat back and allowed Germany and Japan to conquer the world.
It was Germany's ambition to conquer America, but to leave that to the next generation. It was Japan's ambition to conquer the world, too, which deliberately gave the West the false impression that by establishing its Diet (parliament) that it had embraced democracy. We would have been left with a world run by Germany and Japan that possibly would have resulted in the end of everything once each acquired nuclear weapons and used them to challenge each other in a showdown for world dominance.
I agree with their point too that America has ceded more and more states'rights to the federal government. To this can be added the "line-item veto" (since ruled unconstitutional) and a desire to give "fast-track" authority to the president to negotiate under GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) thereby bypassing Congress.
Buy Gold!.......2007-07-24
The book is exactly about what the title says it is:
1. The United States has become an empire. And like all the empires that have come before (Page 49 has a list of them), there will come a time, sooner or later, when it will no longer be an empire.
2. Unlike empires of the past, which were financed by resources (tribute, human, mineral, etc.) of the places colonized or taken over by the empire, the United States empire is financed by debt. The US government is over $36 trillion in debt, largely to foreign debtors, while individual Americans are burdened with consumer debt such as credit cards and mortgages--without any sign of letting up.
The first section of the book talks about empires, describing those of Genghis Khan, Ancient Greece and Rome, and Austria-Hungary. According to the authors, the United States first started to become an empire with Theodore Roosevelt and his "Rough Riders". But it was really Woodrow Wilson's adventures in Mexico, and later World War I, that really established the idea of the United States as an empire. From then on, whether it was FDR in World War II, Johnson's Vietnam...all the way to Reagan's Cold War and Bush's Iraq...we have spent much blood and treasure trying to make the world a better place for democracy, or fight commies, or terrorism, or whatever. All financed by increasing debt, of course. Domestic welfare programs such as FDR's New Deal, Johnson's Great Society, etc. also got financed similarly. At some point all this debt must be paid, and it would not be a pretty thing if all our debtors, one day, demanded all their money at once!
Meanwhile, while America (and Americans) are running up all this debt, the rest of the world (read China and India primarily, but Russia and Brazil as well) has been actually making things, building up their factories and selling products, all for lower wages than America (and the developed West, for that matter). Inflation is also eating into the (meager) savings of Americans.
The last section discusses investing in stocks, real estate, etc. Most Americans invest to get something for nothing, and end up getting poor results. The smarter way to invest, according to the authors, is to buy stock in companies that the investor, using what they call "insider" information--private information and personal experience. (Unfortunately, the authors don't seem to clearly distinguish this from "insider trading", which is illegal!)
The theme running through the book is "Buy Gold". This comes to the forefront in the last few pages, where the authors compare gold to paper currency. While governments can print as much paper money as they think they need, it's harder for them to do that with gold. Gold will always be worth something, while paper currency can (and has) lost value.
This is a good read. I especially liked the history of all of the empires in the past, and how the United States compares to them. What will happen at the end of the American Empire is (necessarily) an open question, but we can all be prepared.....
Bill Bonner king of "doom & gloom".......2007-07-07
His solution is to buy gold/silver & dig
yourself a hole in a ground to live in.
Show Your Love for Your Kin and Yourself -- Read Empire of Debt.......2007-07-01
Through your life, few books are worth trading your time to read them for your time expressing your love for others, making others laugh and helping your neighbors.
Empire of Debt is one of those books you should read.
Like most books, the story does not begin until several chapters ahead and like most books, Empire of Debt suffers from the wrong chapter sequence.
Here's a better chapter sequence to get you to the story faster:
Part 1
[should read -- sets the stage of how the U.S. overthrew the American Republic]
The Road to Hell (5)
The Revolution of 1913 and the Great Depression (6)
How Empires Work (3)
Part 2
[optional read -- yet helpful if you do not know this history]
Nixon's the One (8)
Reagan's Legacy (9)
The U.S.'s (America's) Glorious Empire of Debt (10)
Still Turning Japanese (14)
Part 3
[must read -- the real story]
Modern Imperial Finance (11)
Welcome to Squanderville (13)
The Wall Street Fandango (15)
Something Wicked This Way Comes (12)
Subversive Investing (16)
Part 4
[optional read -- coda commentary about past empires]
Empires of Dirt (2)
Dead Men Talking (1)
Slouching Toward Empire (Introduction)
Part 5
[optional read -- for history buffs only]
MacNamara's War (7)
As We Go Marching (2)
High Finace, Low Finance.......2007-06-28
Usually a book of this sort, about financial matters, is not easy to get through because of the nature of the subject. In this case, the authors have overcome the boredom and tedium by the lighthearted and airy presentation they give to the matters at hand. It really is easy reading, and enjoyable for the most part. The downside is that it tends to make one think they are not so very serious about what they are saying, and I count that as a disadvantage.
I don't think there are any new ideas in this book, but they have been able to synthesize the connections between existing ideas very well. I especially liked the first chapter, "Dead Men Talking", in which they suggest,"Gaze on the dead, and learn their secrets". All of which is to say that we ought to look at history for ideas and clues, but are reluctant to do so because we seek the novelty of something new. And this is what has gotten us into trouble. Without question, we produce little, spend too much (especially for things we don't really need), and import much more than we export, leaving us with a trade imbalance decidedly not in our favor. When not too long ago we were creditors to the rest of the world, we are now the biggest debtor nation on earth. The Dead Men Talking are just itching to turn over in their graves (if only they could) when they see us spending more than we take in. We all, government and private individuals, are spending beyond our means, and we want still more. This is THE main theme of the book, though there are plenty of related factors which go to explain this state of affairs. Certainly the political arena plays a huge part, for the policies resulting from political decisions have an enormous effect on financial stability and success. But at the bottom of it all, it is overspending in one way or another that is the problem. Politically speaking, it is almost unthinkable that we would balance the budget, either in government or privately.
It is too simplistic to focus only on overspending, and the authors certainly do not do that. There is a lot of detail about many of the factors that influence our indebtedness, such as outsourcing the labor pool, failure to save instead of spend, and the effects of wars as a financial drain. Consumer spending is especially egregious because we spend money to buy goods made in other countries, and the money we spend finds its way to those other countries. This leaves us with less money (a whole lot less) to invest in capital inprovement. We have changed from a manufacturing and exporting country to a consumer and importing country, resulting in a trade deficit (a debt, a huge debt !). Sooner or later we will have to pay this debt, or declare bankruptcy.
But the authors do not treat the moral aspect, at least not explicitly.
It's as if we never heard of envy (keeping up with the Joneses) or gluttony (insatiable desire). We need to control our appetites in order to balance outgo (spending) against income. William F. Buckley,Jr. once said "The trouble with capitalism is Capitalists, the trouble with communism is Communism". I have always thought that capitalism is a good system which enabled anyone who had money to invest, to gain an honest return, but any system can be subverted and abused. It appears that this is what has happened to capitalism, and it is regrettable.
All in all, it is good reading, and something to be gained by doing so.
Book Description
"Underneath the hilarious anecdotes, the elegant epigrams,s and the graceful turns of phrase, Kindleberger is deadly serious. The manner in which human beings earn their livings is no laughing matter to him, especially when they attempt to do so at the expense of one another. As he so effectively demonstrates, manias, panics, and crashes are the consequence of an economic environment that cultivates cupidity, chicanery, and rapaciousness rather than a devout belief in the Golden Rule." - From the Foreword to the Fourth Edition by Peter L. Bernstein, author Against the Gods and The Power of Gold
Praise for previous editions of Manias, Panics, and Crashes
"Classic....Manias, Panics, and Crashes is a durable guide to meditation: wise, witty, and practical. It is a template against which to measure the latest financial crisis-whatever and whenever that happens to be." - David Warsh, the Boston Globe
"Definitive." - Floyd Norris, The New York Times
[Manias, Panics, and Crashes] is a scholarly account of the way that mismanagement of money and credit has led to financial explosions over the centuries." - Richard Lambert, Financial Times
"What long has been the best history of financial pathologies is now even better. The reader who absorbs Kindleberger's lessons will be prepared to foresee and navigate the financial crises that surely lie ahead. Like a true classic, Manias, Panics, and Crashes is both timely and timeless." - Richard Sylla, Kaufman Professor of Financial History, Stern School of Business, New York University
Customer Reviews:
A classic book on financial bubbles from an exceptional scholar.......2007-10-01
Kindleberger was a professor of economics at MIT, and a deep scholar of the history of financial bubbles and subsequent crashes. He proves with many examples that growth in the supply of credit is a fundamental factor in bubble development, stengthening associations of this type categorized by Hyman Minsky. While Kindleberger's writing is sometimes redundant, his amazing grasp of the details of financial history, numerous examples, and deep understanding more than compensate for this minor limitation of style. This book has been through 5 editions and is an indispensable reference; it is also a fascinating read. It should not to be missed by any serious investor, nor any student of financial manias and panics.
Writing after crashes is easy.......2007-09-04
Many causes for financial crashes. All have more or less the same pattern. A lot of publication appear after a crash, who will write before the crash?
This book gives good insight into financial chaos.
If you like investments, you need read this book. Now!.......2007-07-10
This book is exceptional.
After read it you will see the market, the history, and... Specially the warnings, with other eye.
Kindleberger wrote an excellent book about Manias, about Panics, about Crashes, about HOW keep alert!
Don't panic... just read it.
[...]
A History of Financial Crises by Kindleberger.......2007-06-10
This is heavy reading even for an academian, if I'm not mistaken. It goes on-and-on citing the details of finacial crises in history going back several centuries. There's no question that Mr Kindleberger's research is majestic. For any student that is exploring historical materials on finance, this book woould be a great source. One of the hardest part of this book is to sort out useable information for the average person that wants to be an alert investor.
John Casey
Northville, MI., 48167
Economic history.......2007-04-17
History always has lessons to teach us. In addition to comments by Golden Lion from Utah, I believed this book really spoke poignantly about the "adjustment process" of global or local market imbalances and the possible causes.
The causes are elaborated in many different examples from the Dutch Tulip crash to the dot-com crash. Signs of the excess liquidity, overly generous expectations of future demand, and other general characteristics are drawn from these events.
In the economic case where A has caused B, then B has caused C, and so on. If Z is a market crash, one cannot blame Y for losses. The book writes that its the cumulative effects of A-Y that has caused this, and more likely the pin-prick that pops a "bubble" is normally from a totally unexcepted source. To me, this was the greatest take away point -- naturally after every market crash we attempt to learn from our follies. However, the market has also learned and adapted, such that the next market failure is caused by a different set, but the same symptoms are similar to A-Y.
On the negative side, I wished that the latest version did a little better job at editing down the redundancies. For example, the Japanese real estate collapse in the early 1990's was used 5-7 times in different parts of the book -- in many cases, the underlying story was retold, even verbatim. I would disagree with one of the reviewers, that one needs an advanced degree to understand this book, however, an appreciation for economic theory is helpful, particularly monetary policies and capital markets. It does not require up-to-date knowledge of the stock, currencies, or bond markets.
Nevertheless, a good book to keep and re-read every few years. Always worth remembering our past mistakes and trying to create an edge.
Book Description
In this updated, second edition of the highly acclaimed international best seller, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures, Richard Duncan describes the flaws in the international monetary system that have destabilized the global economy and that may soon culminate in a deflation-induced worldwide economic slump.
The Dollar Crisis is divided into five parts:
Part One describes how the US trade deficits, which now exceed US$1 million a minute, have destabilized the global economy by creating a worldwide credit bubble.
Part Two explains why these giant deficits cannot persist and why a US recession and a collapse in the value of the Dollar are unavoidable.
Part Three analyzes the extraordinarily harmful impact that the US recession and the collapse of the Dollar will have on the rest of the world.
Part Four offers original recommendations that, if implemented, would help mitigate the damage of the coming worldwide downturn and put in place the foundations for balanced and sustainable economic growth in the decades ahead.
Part Five, which has been newly added to the second edition, describes the extraordinary evolution of this crisis since the first edition was completed in September 2002. It also considers how the Dollar Crisis is likely to unfold over the years immediately ahead, the likely policy response to the crisis, and why that response cannot succeed.
The Dollar Standard is inherently flawed and increasingly unstable. Its collapse will be the most important economic event of the 21st Century.
Customer Reviews:
Solid.......2007-07-30
"Politics is the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen. " (C) Winston Churchill
According to this definition, Mr. Duncan is a good politician and he probably should run for office.
This is a second edition of the book. First edition was written sometime around 2001-2002 and was predicting imminent collapse of the dollar and post-dot-com-bust recession turning into major depression.
As we all know, that didn't happen. Instead of going into the ground, U.S. economy started a gradual trek upwards, partly due to real estate boom brought about by low interest rates, partly due to ingenious fiscal and monetary policy of Washington DC and support from national banks of China and Japan.
By 2005, Mr. Duncan felt compelled to write a new edition of his book, this time adding passages about real estate bubble and a whole new section describing developments since 2002 - in essence, explaining why predictions of 1st edition haven't come true yet.
Jokes aside, this is a solid book and it's highly recommended to any serious reader. A warning, though - it's not a popular book, and it's not meant for light reading - it leans towards scientific style, so it may seem dry and hard to read, especially to someone without basic knowledge of macroeconomics.
Mr Duncan Knows Nothing.......2007-04-21
What the cheeky Mr Duncan fails to grasp is that the Chinese and Japanese love collecting dollars, much like Americans love collecting baseball cards. There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to subsidize the rest of the world via minimum wage and universal fiat. As long as Mr Paulson makes frequent trips to China to make sure they're working hard and behaving themselves in the factories there's nothing to worry about.
Furthermore, his "analysis" rests flimsily on the work of the so called economists Ludwig von Mises and clever clogs Jacques Rueff. No wonder he is so confused.
Verdict:
Communist propaganda
Tedious and Too many Graphs.......2007-03-22
This book is very tedious and wont give you the answers that you are looking for if you are wondering about the current economic situation in the world today. Great for book worms and economics fans, but not for the average person. Too many charts and graphs; almost every other page has a chart. I recommend "Petrodollar Warfare" as a great book to start with if you want to understand how the US got into the economic mess it is in.
very basic undersatanding of the history of our dollar demise.......2007-03-16
a must read for anyone that is woried about where we are headed as a nation
Message 5 stars - If you use Dollars Read this book.......2007-02-03
Overall I think the message of the coming disaster for the US and possibly world economy is critical to read and understand. This book woke me up to realize it is time to pay attention and be prepared for the value of our "dollars" to drop fast.
MUCH too MUCH numbers and "jargon" that I happen to be unfamiliar with but I was able to get the overall message.
Product Description
The bestselling author of No Logo shows how the global free market has exploited crises and shock for three decades, from Chile to Iraq
In her groundbreaking reporting over the past few years, Naomi Klein introduced the term disaster capitalism. Whether covering Baghdad after the U.S. occupation, Sri Lanka in the wake of the tsunami, or New Orleans post-Katrina, she witnessed something remarkably similar. People still reeling from catastrophe were being hit again, this time with economic shock treatment, losing their land and homes to rapid-fire corporate makeovers.
The Shock Doctrine retells the story of the most dominant ideology of our time, Milton Friedman s free market economic revolution. In contrast to the popular myth of this movement s peaceful global victory, Klein shows how it has exploited moments of shock and extreme violence in order to implement its economic policies in so many parts of the world from Latin America and Eastern Europe to South Africa, Russia, and Iraq.
At the core of disaster capitalism is the use of cataclysmic events to advance radical privatization combined with the privatization of the disaster response itself. Klein argues that by capitalizing on crises, created by nature or war, the disaster capitalism complex now exists as a booming new economy, and is the violent culmination of a radical economic project that has been incubating for fifty years.
Customer Reviews:
Reveals the anti-democratic underbelly of neoliberal economics.......2007-10-07
I've been listening to the (abridged) audio version of Ms. Klein's book over the past week. I suspect the parallels she draws between electroshock therapy, torture, and economic "reforms" may alienate those on the ideological right.
That said, this is an important book, in that it documents (for a lay audience) the anti-democratic (and anti-social) nature of so-called "neoliberalism." Hayek and Friedman may well have held human freedom as their highest goal, but their inability, their unwillingness to see past their narrow ideology, their fetishism of capital and the individual, led them to promote some of the most violently anti-democratic and anti-freedom policies the world has seen since feudalism.
As Ms. Klein documents, the so-called "freedom" of Friedman's free-market economics has been - and still is - repeatedly (and quite predictably) abused by the few who have the connections and capital to play in that system.
If absolute power corrupts absolutely, then Friedman and Hayek's absolutist views on the world corrupted them and their followers so absolutely that they refuse to acknowledge the great violence they have done to the goal of human liberation.
Many thanks to Ms. Klein for taking the time and effort to document this travesty for those of us who did not join that cult.
Every American Should Read This Book .......2007-10-07
This book illustrates the context in which we all live. We are all wrapped up in it, and we have to find a way out. The solution the neoliberals and the neocons advocate - privatize, give handouts to corporations, overthrow democracies at home and abroad, wage wars, create crisis, and/or wait for crisis to happen (Katrina), are not only violations of human rights (including the right not to be tortured), but they are not sustainable and have to be stopped. Naomi Klein details the history of neoliberalism from Chile in 1973 to Iraq right now, providing clear and accessible examples, well researched and painfully beautiful sentences that bring home the many wrongs committed by the US in the name of Economic Policy and the Free Market - the only thing truly free is the market, people are of little matter, they can be shocked, their democracies can be intentionally overthrown in order to make their countries more hospitable to American Corporations and if the people should happen to fight back, to speak out, they can be tortured, killed, and disappeared. This book has changed my life. I know one solution to the context of oppression, fear, domination, endless war-creating-for-private-US/Western-profit, is to stop buying things that come from those profiting from neoliberal policies and goals. It won't be easy, because so many corporations are involved in so many ways, but it is a goal that I will strive toward.
Under-rated.......2007-10-07
This is far and away the seminal book of the past several months. I don't feel the points it makes were always presented in a clear cut, easily digestible manner, which is why I did not give it 5 stars. But the ideas so very strong, at times bordering on genius.
Recommended.
Social Trauma.......2007-10-07
As Ms Klein explains, "Shock Doctrine" is about the exploitation of natural disasters and man-made trauma as a philosophy of power.Her book provides an important resource for anyone interested in and/or affected by the political and economic consequences of individual and social trauma.
Anngwyn St.Just Ph.D. Director of the Arizona Center for Social Trauma and author of " Relative Balance in an Unstable World: The Search for New Models for Trauma Education and Recovery( 2006 Carl-Auer Verlag, Heidelberg )
BUYERS BEWARE!!!.......2007-10-07
BUYERS BEWARE!!!!
Do not waste your valuable time or your hard earned money on this book!
What a disappointment.
Book Description
In An Engine, Not a Camera, Donald MacKenzie argues that the emergence of modern economic theories of finance affected financial markets in fundamental ways. These new, Nobel Prize-winning theories, based on elegant mathematical models of markets, were not simply external analyses but intrinsic parts of economic processes.
Paraphrasing Milton Friedman, MacKenzie says that economic models are an engine of inquiry rather than a camera to reproduce empirical facts. More than that, the emergence of an authoritative theory of financial markets altered those markets fundamentally. For example, in 1970, there was almost no trading in financial derivatives such as "futures." By June of 2004, derivatives contracts totaling $273 trillion were outstanding worldwide. MacKenzie suggests that this growth could never have happened without the development of theories that gave derivatives legitimacy and explained their complexities.
MacKenzie examines the role played by finance theory in the two most serious crises to hit the world’s financial markets in recent years: the stock market crash of 1987 and the market turmoil that engulfed the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. He also looks at finance theory that is somewhat beyond the mainstream--chaos theorist Benoit Mandelbrot’s model of âwildâ randomness. MacKenzie’s pioneering work in the social studies of finance will interest anyone who wants to understand how America’s financial markets have grown into their current form.
Customer Reviews:
A plausible case.......2007-08-29
Many financial analysts and financial journalists have pointed to quantitative trading and the subprime mortgage markets as being the major cause behind the extreme volatility in the financial markets in the summer of 2007. This book therefore seems fitting for this particular time in financial history, if only at a bare minimum to educate the reader about the use of mathematical modeling in financial analysis and financial engineering. As the subtitle of the book indicates, the author's main thesis is that the use of mathematical models can actually change the dynamics of the markets themselves, moving them possibly to territories even more uncertain that they were invented to describe. Quantitative trading, now done by most of the major players in the financial markets, is dependent of course on mathematical modeling, some of which uses highly sophisticated reasoning patterns and artificial intelligence. Most of these models are proprietary, and therefore one cannot ascertain their efficacy in the acquisition of wealth for the organizations that deploy them. However, with a little pertinacity one can acquire a good understanding of their workings by studying the academic literature.
Some of the predominant models in the public domain are discussed in this book, mostly from an historical perspective but the author inserts some of the relevant mathematics in its appendices for the more mathematically sophisticated reader. In general the author makes a plausible case for his main thesis, but at times his conclusions are based on mere anecdotes, and he makes the typical mistake of imputing power and influence to individuals that is unsubstantiated. It is very tempting, especially among those individuals or institutions that are involved in trading, or even responsible for innovations in the same, to believe that they are the cause for some of volatility in the financial markets. But such claims, even if they seem reasonable or intuitively clear, must be substantiated with careful statistical analysis, which can be time-consuming and difficult, and few individuals it seems are willing to devote themselves to such a project. The author though is aware of this, for he states very early on in the book that historical sources may not be sufficient to allow one to decide if the influences are real. In addition, he cautions the reader to "look not just at what participants say and write but also at whether the processes in question involve procedures and material devices that incorporate economics."
The author labels the idea that economics as an academic project is actually part of economic processes the `performativity of economics', which he further breaks down into subclasses that serve to clarify the distinctions he wishes to make. One of these is more of a passive notion, called "generic" performativity, which is used to describe the participant's use of economic theories or data without emphasizing their effects on economic processes. If such effects take place, this is called "effective" performativity, which is then specialized to "Barnesian" performativity. The latter is used to describe the situations where the practical use of economic theory makes economic processes resemble what they are described to be by economic theory. Barnesian performativity is to be contrasted with `counterperformativity' where the actual use of economic models makes economic processes not resemble their description by these models. The author discusses how to detect Barnesian performativity, but warns of the difficulty in proving that movements in prices are following certain model predictions.
But aside from the qualitative/historical emphasis that the author makes in this book and the small number of unsubstantiated claims of model-market influence, the reader will take away a better understanding of such topics as the capital asset pricing model, the Black-Scholes-Merton model of option pricing, the Modigliani-Miller theory of capital structure, a description of Levy processes and their role in econometrics, and most interestingly, a different explanation for the demise of Long Term Capital Management. All of these topics, coupled with the intellectual honesty and literary skill of the author, make this book a highly interesting contribution to the financial literature.
An Insightful Look into Finance's Twin Roles.......2006-12-19
Both the science and the art and practice of finance have experienced phenomenal growth since the 1970s.
As a science, finance has evolved from a descriptive outpost on the economic frontiers to become of that discipline's central topics. During the same period, the financial markets changed from what often seems today like sleepy outposts of liquidity into dynamic centers for financial engineering. In the 1970s, the world was being introduced to commodity hedging and options trading. By the early part of the 21st century, derivatives contracts totaling more than $273 trillion were outstanding worldwide.
Donald MacKenzie, a sociology professor at the University of Edinburgh, argues in An Engine, Not a Camera, the trends are connected. Paraphrasing Milton Friedman, he argues the emergence of economic models were an engine of inquiry rather than a camera to reproduce empirical facts. As the science of finance became authoritative, the markets were altered. These new, Nobel Prize-winning theories, elegant mathematical markets models, were more than external analyses. They evolved into intrinsic parts of the financial process.
Beginning with a discussion of the work of Franco Modigliani and Merton Miller, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and Random Walk, MacKenzie takes the reader on a journey through the development of the Black-Scholes-Merton model, The Crash of 1987, Long-Term Capital Management and the Russian government's default in 1998 to bind the threads of his thesis.
Detailed, astute, well-written, and with much of the technical detail relegated to the appendices, this book weaves economics, financial theory, economic sociology and science and technology studies into an essential read for anyone with a serious interest in the financial markets.
Amazon.com
It's not often--or maybe ever--that a book steeped in emerging-market economic theory reads like a thriller. But And the Money Kept Rolling In (and Out) has cliffhangers and plot twists equal to a detective's tale, as Paul Blustein chronicles the spectacular rise and fall of Argentina's economy at the turn of the 21st century. The book has its flaws, of course, including the author's insistence on using goofy metaphors from the overripe Andrew Lloyd Webber musical Evita (from which the book takes its awkward title). But by and large, Blustein, a staff writer at the Washington Post, tells a cynic's tale of greed run amok on a massive scale.
While policy wonks at the International Monetary Fund had much to do with Argentina's implosion, Blustein also holds the country's own government responsible. Conventional wisdom says that the influence of the world's investors keeps everyone in line--a key tenet of the pro-globalization argument--but in practice, Blustein writes, "foreign funds numbed Argentine policymakers into minimizing the perils of their policies. The effect was similar to a dose of steroids, giving the economy a short-term boost while insidiously increasing the risk of a breakdown in the long run." From that point on, only devastation lay ahead for many average Argentineans, who could no longer remove savings from their banks, and for international investors, who saw their returns vanish in a flash. Blustein effectively makes the case that Argentina wasn't a rare example or a perfect storm of problems, but--bearing "striking parallels" to Enron and other financial scandals of the era--a preview of more meltdowns to come. It's a compelling cautionary tale well worth telling. --Jennifer Buckendorff
Book Description
The dramatic, definitive account of the most spectacular economic meltdown of modern times exposes the dangerous flaws of our global financial system.
In the 1990s, few countries were more lionized than Argentina for its efforts to join the club of wealthy nations. Argentina's policies drew enthusiastic applause from the IMF, the World Bank and Wall Street. But the club has a disturbing propensity to turn its back on arrivistes and cast them out. That was what happened in 2001, when Argentina suffered one of the most spectacular crashes in modern history. With it came appalling social and political chaos, a collapse of the peso, and a wrenching downturn that threw millions into poverty and left nearly one quarter of the workforce unemployed.
Paul Blustein, whose book about the IMF, The Chastening, was called "gripping, often frightening" by The Economist and lauded by the Wall Street Journal as "a superbly reported and skillfully woven story," now gets right inside Argentina's rise and fall in a dramatic account based on hundreds of interviews with top policymakers and financial market players as well as reams of internal documents. He shows how the IMF turned a blind eye to the vulnerabilities of its star pupil, and exposes the conduct of global financial market players in Argentina as redolent of the scandals-like those at Enron, WorldCom and Global Crossing- that rocked Wall Street in recent years. By going behind the scenes of Argentina's debacle, Blustein shows with unmistakable clarity how sadly elusive the path of hope and progress remains to the great bulk of humanity still mired in poverty and underdevelopment.
Customer Reviews:
A wonderful look at how an economy collapsed.......2007-07-09
This book seeks to understand how and why Argentina sank into financial chaos in the early 2000's. The book looks at the role of the IMF, US treasury, private markets, and the Argentinean government in the overall downfall of the country. The author writes very well about his subject and has a good understanding of international economics. The IMF is not completely vilified as it is in many of the current financial crisis's and although it shares a large amount of the blame the book hands it out equally. There is quite a bit of conspiracy theory and engaging in theories behind the IMF and Wall Street as well as the Bush administration. The author acknowledges in most cases that these are conspiracies but they did not really need to be discussed. The most interesting part of the story has to do with the role that the markets played in Argentina. It is an interesting foreshadow for the future of emerging markets and looking at the self fulfilling prophecies of debt and equity. This book deserves its credit for focusing on real issues without engaging in much ideology or theory. If you want to understand how financial markets are impacting areas overseas this is a great book to start with.
Objective chronicle of a nation's collapse.......2007-06-10
This book examines the economic history of Argentina from the early 20th century to 2004, with an emphasis on the time period from 1989 to 2002. The focus is on the financial sector of the economy, and how actions by the government and international financial institutions first ballooned Argentina's economy over a decade, and then collapsed it in just under 2 years. The point of view is from the top, as the book follows multiple important figures throughout this time, including officials at the IMF, officials in Argentina's government, and financial bigwigs in the US and Europe, both public and private.
The author is quite objective and impartial, and lays blame all around. The IMF gets some blame for not being more forceful in getting Argentina to change its ways. International banks and lenders get blame for contributing willingly to the financial bubble of the country. And the Argentinan government gets blame for refusing to consider floating its currency, devaluing it, or restructuring its debt before it was too late. Unfortunately, it was the citizens, mainly poor and middle class, of Argentina who took it in the pocketbooks. All in all a great book, with equal emphasis on economics, public policy, and historical analysis. I highly recommend this book.
Another Winner from Blustein.......2006-10-15
Paul Blustein may have have created a new genre: the real-life financial crisis thriller. Having dissected the Asian financial crisis in "The Chastening," he now turns to Argentina in "And the Money Kept Rolling in (and Out)." The book tells the fascinating story of how Argentina, after being lionized as the poster child of free market reform in the early 1990s, became hooked on foreign debt that ballooned far faster than its ability to service it. The outcome was default and financial ruin in 2001-02, with vast economic hardship for the Argentine population.
As in "The Chasterning," Blustein's narrative is clearly-written and based on in-depth interviews with decision-makers in government, the IMF, and the financial community. He takes aim at perverse institutional incentives and herd-behavior among investors who poured money into Argentina long after it was clear that the country couldn't pay its bills. This profligacy encouraged an attitude of policy-complacency in Buenos Aires that made the final reckoning all the more painful for foreign bond-holders and Argentines alike. Highly recommended.
Economics of Debt.......2006-09-18
This was a very interesting book about the IMF and its dealing with Argentina. Argentina has had a colorful past of financial blunders including one in 1890 which almost brought down Barings Bank when it defaulted on its bond payments. So it was not surprising when Argentina bankrupted again.
Not only does this book have the inner workings of the IMF with regard to Argentina but it also contains some short stories of average people and the catastrophies that befell them because of Argentina's currency devaluation. I found it interesting that because Argentina guaranteed an exchange rate between its currency and the dollar that a lot of people had taken out loans in dollars which proved to be disasterous when the peso was devalued.
All the information about the behind the scenes action of the IMF was very insightful as to the inner workings of global financing of emerging nations. The author did a good job bringing home the facts and helping the reader get to know the players in both the IMF and the Argentine government. In summary this was a good lesson on the economics of what debt can do to a country.
Argentina's Wild Ride.......2006-08-07
A fast paced enjoyable read. Paul Blustein tells the story of the rise and fall of Argentina's economy in the roiling seas of free trade and free markets of the nineties in the style of a novel. His behind the scenes look at the International Monetary Fund were very elightening and throughly entertaining.
Motives and ambitions of leaders are not always spelled out when reading about the fits and starts of South American economies like Argentina in the North American press, but reading this book sheds bright light on thinking and actions of dicision makers as they explain thier actions.
Entertaining and informing.
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