Productivity Measurement in Regulated Industries (Economic Theory, Econometrics, and Mathematical Economics)

Book Description

MAKING HARD DECISIONS WITH DECISIONTOOLS® is a special version of Bob Clemen's best-selling text, MAKING HARD DECISIONS. This straight-forward book teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in management science. This new version incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools® by Palisade Corporation, the world's leading toolkit for risk and decision analysis. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions for DecisionTools®. This new version makes the text more useful and relevant to students to business and engineering.

Customer Reviews:

Update on the Decison Tools Suite.......2004-02-22

Dr Clemen has provided an excellent text for Decision Analysis instruction. I have continuously surveyed the field and have yet to find a text that comes up to the standard that Dr Clemen set with his first publication "Making Hard Decisions"

I have used "Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools Suite" as well as the predecessor text "Making Hard Decisions."

Richard D Hofler

Hard Decisions Basics.......2004-01-25

Used this book in a "Making Decisions under Uncertainty" graduate class at the Business School of the University of São Paulo. This book brings all the basics for decision making theory, specifically quantitative aspects of it and comes along with the Decision Tools software that has some bugs but works ok. Using the book together with the software you will get a very good basic idea of what decision making is all about. If decision theory is important for your studies buy this book!!! I also recommend Max Bazerman's "Judgment in managerial decision making" as a complement to it because this one focuses more on the subjective piece of decision making (decision biases, uncertainty, etc, etc) which is not really covered well by Clemen & Reilly. With both, you have a very good toolset for starting to study Decision Making Theory.

Book is OK. Spend extra $20 if you buy used book........2003-03-12

There is a software with the book, which has to be used for working on the problems.(The book has no use without the software).
You can register the software only once.
If you buy a used book, you have to pay another $20 to get a new serial # to use the software.
My seller mburns1000 didn't mention about this when I bought the book and I ended up spending another $20.

The authors know how to write a textbook!.......2002-10-08

This exceptional book is worth reading regardless of readers' specialization. A big surprise for those who don't like probability and statistics! This book could be a good introduction to Probability and Statistics with Bayesian approach. Although I cannot point out bad sections, here are some of the topics that could be improved.

Influence Diagram examples are much fewer than Decision Tree diagrams. I'd love to see more complex and elaborate decision model examples for practitioners implementing their own models.

In probability chapter, the authors implicitly assume that Pr(A,B) means Pr(AB) or Pr(A and B) where Pr() is "probability of" and A and B are some events. This is never mentioned in the book (as far as I recall), so it should be fixed for clarity. Also in the same chapter, chain rules and marginalization are not covered explicitly, yet a reader needs to use these general rules in exercises and in some of main contents. These rules are very important in manipulating probability and conditional probability terms.

Although there are few selected answers for exercises, most of the answers are not too hard and they are self-explanatory. So self-study readers shouldn't worry too much.

A curious person who might wonder what decision science and analysis is about, I recommend reading "Smart Choice" by John Hammond, et al. Less math and more compact exposition.

For further study in Influence Diagrams and Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN), a good introduction is "Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs" by Finn Jensen, et al. There are numerous good sites for BBN on web so search them online. For probability and statistics, "Probability and Statistics" by Degroot, et al. or Feller's Volume 1 are good, which are mentioned in the textbook.

Note: I recommend this blue cover version rather than green one as the former comes with Palisade Decision Tools Suite and is published later.

Understanding Hard Decisions.......2000-10-20

Understanding Hard Decisions

So that you know where I am coming from: I found this book while selecting a new text for my senior "Decision & Risk Analysis" course. There are numerous books on this subject, but none are perfect: either the presentation of the subject is hard, talking way above the heads of the audience, or too theoretical, or requiring a high level of math skills, or the presentation is at a too low level, or too narrow in focus, or not covering the whole spectrum of Decision Analysis. I chose this book for various advantages it has. The technical level of math that it requires is low, yet the analysis is high. It is written in a very easy way to read, follow and understand manner. It can be used both as a textbook for a course as well as a reference. It makes use of the most common generic tool for calculating and solving problems, the Excel spreadsheet for the suite of software that comes with the book (Palisades Decision tools) are integrated with it. The book offers a rather complete presentation of decision analysis concepts and techniques: there is a whole chapter on the important topic of sensitivity analysis, another chapter on simulation; and risk and forecasting are also presented.

I find the reference section in each chapter excellent, for it helps the reader tie the literature to the concepts presented. The last chapter which gives an annotated decision analysis reading list is also very helpful. All textbooks need to have these two ingredients. It is true that numerous of the references given in the book are fairly old, but the topic is not in the fast changing computer science field, and many of the original articles and books in the decision analysis area are classics and need to be looked at carefully. (Maybe there is a lesson to learn here for those who give a minus when "old" references are included in a scholarly work.)

The book is very modern for the concepts it presents (influence diagrams - a relatively newcomer in decision analysis, issues of recent interest, such as assessment, ecology and AIDS) and because it also ties with the web. The reader is directed to the web page of the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS and this gives an important tool for keeping the knowledge presented in the book constantly updateable and broadening the spectrum of the interested reader. Another advantage: the book emphasizes structuring decision problems rather the more traditional approach to stress modeling of uncertainty and preference.

I like both the structure of the book (that follows the decision analysis process) and that of each chapter which consist of an introduction, presentation of concepts and techniques, a summary section, challenging case studies accompanied by questions referring to the concepts just presented, references, and an epilogue.

Best qualities of the book: clarity, good structure, interesting real or realistic fictitious case studies - extremely important to keep the student interested in a topic which other books present in a dry way and with just "toy" problems.

Yes, the book is rather expensive, but do not disregard the fact that it comes with a set of software tools which although a student version (with limited-size problems and expiring after a while) it can be time-unlocked for a cost. Most importantly the software does not represent a separate school-only tool, for there exist commercial standard and professional versions that the student will be able to use on real-life problems without the need to go through an additional learning curve, if willing to pay the larger, but non-prohibitive cost. Clear instructions for how to use the software is given in the appropriate sections of the book.

What I would add? A glossary of decision analysis terms, either for each chapter or, with preference, a global one at the end of the book.

A special touch: most chapters end with an epilogue. Each epilogue has a different flavor (a game, a comment on a debated case, etc.) The epilogue does not directly summarize the main "action" of the chapter. It is more like the conclusion section of a musical composition - it brings some additional intriguing element that will keep the interest of the student aroused. This is as artistic in nature as decision science must be!

Review by Ileana Costea, Ph.D. Professor of Engineering, California State University, Northridge Email: icostea@csun.edu

Customer Reviews:

Software is 10 day trial version only.......2002-08-19

I was disappointed to discover that RISKOptimizer software included with this book was just a 10-day trial version. After that, you have to buy the $700 license for the software. For books like this, obviously aimed to a large extent at business students, it seems much more logical to include a reduced capacity version with a perpetual license, as other similar books do.

Great non-linear optimization tool.......2001-03-18

Anyone in operations will find something of value in this book. There is a good variety of problems, and good explanations of how to solve them. The book is accompanied with Palisade.com's Risk Optimizer software. Be sure to check their web site; they post updates to software, and they seem like a pretty good company to deal with, as well.

With his various books and software, Dr Winston really helps the business manager leverage his productivity.

overall good examples, with exemption of option pricing ones.......1999-10-05

The first impression from the book was great. There are really good examples of different optimization problems - product mix, manpower allocation etc. However, missing example files from the chapters on option pricing have ruined this good impression. Without the example files (that are supposed to be on the accompanying CD) the chapters loose a good portion of their value, as the historical data are missing, which is hard to recreate and check if you understand the material right. Another bad experience with the book is the fact that CD that came with the first book that I received was damaged and completely unusable. Thanks to the Amazon.com, they sent me the second copy of the book with a new CD free of charge. But the facts are that if you buy the book, you cannot be sure that the CD is usable, and if it is, then some of the example files will be missing. In my opinion, for the price they charge for the book, you could expect a little bit more quality.

Student Edition of MATLAB Version 5 For the Macintosh

Average customer rating:

An asset for students in any technical subject.

Student Edition of MATLAB Version 5 For the Macintosh
Mathworks , and MathWorks Inc.
Manufacturer: Prentice Hall
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

General | Computers & Internet | Subjects | Books

General | Science | Subjects | Books

General | Reference | Subjects | Books

All Titles | Qualifying Textbooks - Fall 2007 | Stores | Books

Computers & Internet | Qualifying Textbooks - Fall 2007 | Stores | Books

Professional | Qualifying Textbooks - Fall 2007 | Stores | Books

Reference | Qualifying Textbooks - Fall 2007 | Stores | Books

Science | Qualifying Textbooks - Fall 2007 | Stores | Books
ASIN: 0132724855

Customer Reviews:

An asset for students in any technical subject........1997-08-16

This package gives a readable introduction to the basic Matlab language. The value is in the CD-Rom: Version 5). Included are the basic Matlab language (limited to 16000 matrix elements), control and signal analysis extensions, and a large portion of the symbolic extension based on Maple (this provides symbolic algebra and calculus). The on-line documentation has been improved and extended. A large amount of additional Matlab documentation is on the CD including more than 20 additional volumes.

Matlab is easier to use than most computer languages, and many useful functions are included making Matlab an effective way to undertake many calculations, particularly in mathematical, scientific and engineering applications.

Matlab 5 includes cell arrays, data structures and an elementary but usable object oriented extension, making it noticably more powerful than previous versions. As in the previous versions a good range of graphing functions are provided.

Warnings:
Version 5 is not compatible with Simulink 1 ( Simulink 2 is coming Sept 97).
Installer clashes with some extensions (disable extensions during installation).
Upper case letters in file names and class names causes problems (Version 5.0).
Insure you get the Macintosh (or PC version) that includes the disk.

Book Description

Around the world, liberalization and privatization in the electricity industry have lead to increased competition among utilities. At the same time, utilities are now exposed more than ever to risk and uncertainties, which they cannot pass on to their customers through price increases as in a regulated environment. Especially electricity-generating companies have to face volatile wholesale prices, fuel price uncertainty, limited long-term hedging possibilities and huge, to a large extent, sunk investments.

In this context, Uncertainty in the Electric Power Industry: Methods and Models for Decision Support aims at an integrative view on the decision problems that power companies have to tackle. It systematically examines the uncertainties power companies are facing and develops models to describe them - including an innovative approach combining fundamental and finance models for price modeling. The optimization of generation and trading portfolios under uncertainty is discussed with particular focus on CHP and is linked to risk management. Here the concept of integral earnings at risk is developed to provide a theoretically sound combination of value at risk and profit at risk approaches, adapted to real market structures and market liquidity. Also methods for supporting long-term investment decisions are presented: technology assessment based on experience curves and operation simulation for fuel cells and a real options approach with endogenous electricity prices.

Utility and Probability (New Palgrave Series)

Average customer rating:

Utility and Probability (New Palgrave Series)
John Eatwell , and Murray Milgate
Manufacturer: W W Norton & Co Inc
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

General | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
ASIN: 0393958639

Advances in Decision Research: Selected Proceedings of the 11th Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making Cambridge, Uk, Aug

Average customer rating:

Advances in Decision Research: Selected Proceedings of the 11th Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making Cambridge, Uk, Aug
Bernd Rohrmann , Lee Roy Beach , Charles Vlek , and Stephen R. Watson
Manufacturer: Elsevier Science Ltd
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

General | Psychology & Counseling | Health, Mind & Body | Subjects | Books

Social Psychology & Interactions | Psychology & Counseling | Health, Mind & Body | Subjects | Books

General | Science | Subjects | Books
ASIN: 0444871489

Analyzing and Aiding Decision Processes (Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making//Proceedings)

Average customer rating:

Analyzing and Aiding Decision Processes (Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making//Proceedings)

Manufacturer: Elsevier Science Ltd
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

General | Psychology & Counseling | Health, Mind & Body | Subjects | Books

Cognitive | Psychology & Counseling | Health, Mind & Body | Subjects | Books

Decision Space: Multidimensional Utility Analysis (Cambridge Studies in Probability, Induction and Decision Theory)

Average customer rating:

Decision Space: Multidimensional Utility Analysis (Cambridge Studies in Probability, Induction and Decision Theory)
Paul Weirich
Manufacturer: Cambridge University Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

General | Philosophy | Nonfiction | Subjects | Books

General | Science | Subjects | Books

General | Mathematics | Science | Subjects | Books

Book Description

In Decision Space: Multidimensional Utility Analysis, Paul Weirich increases the power and versatility of utility analysis and in the process advances decision theory. Combining traditional and novel methods of option evaluation into one systematic method, multidimensional utility analysis is a valuable new tool. The multiple dimensions of this analysis create a decision space broad enough to accommodate all factors affecting an option's utility. The book will be of interest to advanced students and professionals working in the subject of decision theory, as well as to economists and other social scientists.

Decision, Probability and Utility: Selected Readings

Average customer rating:

Gardenfors and Sahlin ignore Keynes's contributions.

Decision, Probability and Utility: Selected Readings

Manufacturer: Cambridge University Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

Decision-Making & Problem Solving | Management & Leadership | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

General | Philosophy | Nonfiction | Subjects | Books

Political | Philosophy | Nonfiction | Subjects | Books

All Titles | Qualifying Textbooks - Fall 2007 | Stores | Books
ASIN: 0521336589

Book Description

Decision theory and the theory of rational choice have recently been the subjects of considerable research by philosophers and economists. However, no adequate anthology exists which can be used to introduce students to the field. This volume is designed to meet that need. The essays included are organized into five parts covering the foundations of decision theory, the conceptualization of probability and utility, pholosophical difficulties with the rules of rationality and with the assessment of probability, and causal decision theory. The editors provide an extensive introduction to the field and introductions to each part.

Customer Reviews:

Gardenfors and Sahlin ignore Keynes's contributions........2004-11-01

This book is a collection of the most important articles published in applied probability/decision theory through 1988.Some of the articles that are republished in this book are F Ramsey's "Truth and Probability",H Kyburg's" Bets and Beliefs",Kahneman and Tversky's "Prospect Theory...",Issac Levi's "Indeterminate Probabilities",Daniel Ellsberg's "Risk,Ambiguity and the Savage Axiom's",Gardenfors and Sahlin's "Unreliable Probabilities...",among others.This book is highly recommended for the specialist reader.The main criticism of the essays in this book is the complete absence of any discussion about J M Keynes's contributions to applied probability and decision science made in 1921 in his pathbreaking A Treatise on Probability(TP).Gardenfors and Sahlin(GS)make a major error in placing the 1926 Ramsey review of Keynes's TP as the book's first selection.Bertrand Russell was making an understatement when he stated that the Ramsey reviews of Keynes's TP had the least value of any of Ramsey's published or unpublished work.Ramsey completely misinterpreted Keynes's definitions of the word's"nonnumerical" and "nonmeasurable"in Keynes's introductory chapter 3 in the TP.Ramsey mistakenly assumed that Keynes was arguing that in general a decision maker would be unable to estimate probabilities using numbers (or numerals as Keynes called them).Ramsey thus talks about Keynes's "mysterious nonnumerical probabilities" and/or"mysterious degrees of belief".In fact,this reviewer can find no value at all in either of Ramsey's reviews with respect to his assessment of Keynes's TP.Contrary to Ramsey,Keynes is the first scholar in history to develop a systematic approach to estimating probabilities using intervals.Each interval has a lower bound and a upper bound.This requires two numerals,not one.Thus ,by nonnumerical Keynes meant that in general it would not be possible to estimate a probability using a single number(i.e.,nonnumerical meant "not by a single numeral").Of course ,this introduced the problem of overlapping interval estimates.Problems of noncomparability,nonrankability, and incommensurability would complicate the evaluations of probabilities.Ramsey overlooked Keynes's analysis contained in chapters5,10,15,17 and Part III of the TP.Unfortunately,so do all of the other contributors to this book.None of the articles mention that Keynes was the first scholar to specify an index to measure the weight of the evidence.Letting w equal the weight of the evidence,w is defined on the unit interval[0,1]as 0<=w<=1.w measures the completeness of the relevant potential evidence available to a decision maker in order to calculate an estimate of probability.Finally,all of the contributors to this volume of collected essays overlooked Keynes's major contribution to decision theory,his conventional coefficient of risk and weight,c.c incorporates variables needed to deal with nonlinear probability preferences and weight of the evidence problems(Ellsberg calls the problem ambiguity while GS call the problem unreliable probabilities).The goal of Keynes's decision theory is to maximize cA,as opposed to the expected value rule(maximize pA,where p is a reliable probability and A is an outcome)or the expected utility rule(maximize pU(A),where U is a utility function).It is suggested that GS republish Keynes's chapter 26 from the TP in a revised edition so that the potential reader has all the evidence available on Keynes's contribution.

Books:

Books Index

Books Home

Recommended Books