Book Description
Value-at-risk (VaR) is a measure of market risk that has been widely adopted since the mid-1990s for use on trading floors. This is the first advanced book published on VaR. It describes how to design, implement, and use scalable production VaR measures on actual trading floors. It takes readers from the basics of VaR to the most advanced techniques, many of which have never been published in book form.
Practical, detailed examples are drawn from markets around the world, including: Euro deposits, Pacific Basin equities, physical coffees, and North American natural gas.
Real-world challenges relating to market data, portfolio mappings, multicollinearity, and intra-horizon events are addressed in detail. Exercises reinforce concepts and walk readers step-by-step through computations.
Sophisticated techniques are fully disclosed, including: quadratic ("delta-gamma") methods for nonlinear portfolios, variance reduction (control variates and stratified sampling) for Monte Carlo VaR measures, principal component remappings, techniques to "fix" estimated covariance matrices that are not positive-definite, the Cornish-Fisher expansion, and orthogonal GARCH.
* First advanced text on Value-at-Risk
* Practical, detailed examples drawn from markets around the world
* Exercises reinforce concepts and walk readers step-by-step through computations
Customer Reviews:
The Bible.......2006-03-30
I work in finance as a software developer. I had done some work with risk management and had read Jorion's book and Butler's. When I had to do my own VaR implementation, a colleague recommended Holton's book. It is amazing. The level of domain expertise is above anything else out there. It is sophisticated and well written. I thought I knew about VaR before reading Holton, but I didn't really. Now I know about VaR.
I noticed that someone has been posting negative reviews of the book here on Amazon. Those reviews are blatantly dishonest. I assume they are posted by a jealous competing author.
Holton is the bible.
Not helpful.......2005-06-27
This book looks good only at first sight. However, try and solve the exercises and you see there is more to VaR than the author wants us to believe. This book is too incoherent to be of any use. Just take a look at the index: A lot of things are introduced but are never used again later in the book. This makes me wonder why they were introduced at all. Some examples from the index: Hessian, GARCH, Markov process, etc.
The biggest fault however in my opinion is the treatment of Monte Carlo, the most essential tool for VaR calculation: Condensed in roughly 30 pages compared to roughly 110 pages for mathematical preliminaries and probability cannot cater to the same audience.
A good book on VaR.......2005-06-25
A good book on VaR, but finally lost its charming. Incomplete and solved cases in a pathetic manner. Theory: 80%, Practice: 10%, pathetic exercises 10%. This book doesn?t reflect its complete main purpose: theory and practice. I would choose mastering Value at Risk by Cormac Butler and Value At Risk by Jorion. My rate is 2 stars. Do it again. Don?t forget solved cases in spreadsheets.
A Smart Book.......2005-06-08
There are plenty of elementary books on VaR. This is an exception. It is a smart book for practitioners. It covers practicalities such as data cleaning, day counts and modeling intra-horizon events. It explains cutting-edge theory such as quadratic VaR, variance reduction techniques and holdings remappings. It introduces all the mathematics you need to know.
The prerequisites are modest -- about the same as for John Hull's book "Futures, Options and Other Derivatives." Holton does use some more advanced concepts, such as the Cornish-Fisher expansion or moment generating functions. He explains all of these before using them. Actually, he goes out of his way to make the mathematics accessible, devoting several chapters to explaining essential concepts. There are chapters on probability, statistics, the Monte Carlo Method, etc. Later in the book, whenever technical concepts come up, you will find an accompanying reference to an explanation in one of the earlier mathematics chapters. In this regard, the book is wonderfully self contained!
The author does make extensive use of matrix notation. This may take some getting used to if your background in linear algebra is limited, but it is worth it. Formulas that would be extremely complicated become simple when expressed with matrices. The author's notation is intuitive and used consistently throughout the book. If you see a symbol on page 10, it is going to mean exactly the same thing on page 310.
If you are serious about value-at-risk, this is the book to read.
no words needed - just buy it!.......2005-01-18
the ultimate resource for VAR theory and practice.
excellent writing, math and all.
don't spend time and money elsewere, just buy it!!
Book Description
Both in insurance and in finance applications, questions involving extremal events (such as large insurance claims, large fluctuations in financial data, stock market shocks, risk management, ...) play an increasingly important role. This book sets out to bridge the gap between the existing theory and practical applications both from a probabilistic as well as from a statistical point of view. Whatever new theory is presented is always motivated by relevant real-life examples. The numerous illustrations and examples, and the extensive bibliography make this book an ideal reference text for students, teachers and users in the industry of extremal event methodology.
Customer Reviews:
largest book written on extremes.......2002-01-30
This book presents extreme value theory and its applications with the finance industry as its primary target. There have been many excellent texts written on extreme value theory but none this extensive. As the authors admit even as extensive as it is the theory of multivariate extremes is neglected. They chose to only cover in detail the theory that is mature enough for application.
What you will find here that is not in many texts on this subject is a treatment of risk theory and fluctuations of sums and various time series models including cases with heavy-tailed marginal distributions.
Chapter 8 on special topics is particularly interesting with a lot of coverage for the extremal index, large claim index, ARCH processes, large deviations, reinsurance, stable processes and self-similarity. The book contains over 600 references to the literature and is a welcome resource for practitioners in finance and insurance as well as extreme value theorists.
Highly recommended.......2000-08-15
This book covers the theory and applications of extremal value theory (an area of applied probability). The mathematics is kept at an acceptable level, i.e. advanced undergraduates in math/physics/engineering, but the breadth and the sophistication of the statements are such that the results are never trivial. Chapters 2-3-4 introduce the reader to the property of sums, maxima and order statistics of random variables. Many results are only stated but not proved. Yet, this does not detract to the readability of the book. Chpater 5 treats point processes and requires a deeper mathematical background. Among the chapters, this was the most disappointing to me. The monographs of Resnick and of Kallenberg, as well as many good introductions to point processes in queueing theory, are in my opinion both a more intuitive and rigorous introduction to random measures. This is not a major flaw of the book, given its view toward applications; and besides this, the bibliographical notes will point the reader to the relevant literature. Chapter 6, on statistical analysis of extremal events, is enjoyable and extremely useful for practitioners in finance and insurance. Chapter 7 touches upon time series and its relation to heavy tails. Finally, chapter 8 is a put-pourri of topics: ARCH processes, stable processes, self-similarity. Overall, I found this book useful as a reference, but sometimes lacking in focus: some topics seem juxtaposed with no clear logical continuity. Another potential shortcoming of the book is that it is neither completely rigorous nor completely readable (i.e., an undergraduate-level book). At the same time, these can be considered as qualities: with regards to the former, there is plenty of material to consult and draw inspiration from; and at the same time each reader will find the "right" level of mathematics in the book. In my opinion the final balance is largely positive, and I would recommend this book without hesitation.
Book Description
Based on an enormously popular "derivative instruments and applications" course taught by risk expert Christopher Culp at the University of Chicago, Risk Transfer will prepare both current practitioners and students alike for many of the issues and problems they will face in derivative markets. Filled with in-depth insight and practical advice, this book is an essential resource for those who want a comprehensive education and working knowledge of this major field in finance, as well as professionals studying to pass the GARP FRM exam.
Christopher L. Culp, PhD (Chicago, IL), is a Principal at CP Risk Management LLC and is also Adjunct Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago. He is the author of Corporate Aftershock (0-471-43002-1) and The ART of Risk Management (0-471-12495-8).
Download Description
Based on an enormously popular "derivative instruments and applications" course taught by risk expert Christopher Culp at the University of Chicago, Risk Transfer will prepare both current practitioners and students alike for many of the issues and problems they will face in derivative markets. Filled with in-depth insight and practical advice, this book is an essential resource for those who want a comprehensive education and working knowledge of this major field in finance, as well as professionals studying to pass the GARP FRM exam.
Christopher L. Culp, PhD (Chicago, IL), is a Principal at CP Risk Management LLC and is also Adjunct Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago. He is the author of Corporate Aftershock (0-471-43002-1) and The ART of Risk Management (0-471-12495-8).
Book Description
For those preparing for the Certified Protection Professional® program and designation, The Complete Guide for CPP Examination Preparation provides a thorough foundation of essential security concepts and practices in a single volume. This guide does more than impart the information required for you to pass the CPP exam, it also delivers insight into what taking the exam is like, and provides an appreciation for the work and knowledge needed to gain CPP certification. The book addresses ten critical areas: security management, investigations, protection of sensitive information, substance abuse, physical security, personnel security, emergency planning, management of a guard force, legal aspects of security, and the role of a security professional as a liaison with both management and law enforcement. The authors include sample test questions for you to take after completing each of the areas of study. Although these are not questions that appear on the actual exam, they do convey the principles and concepts that the exam emphasizes, and are valuable in determining if you have mastered the required information.
Average customer rating:
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Managing in Uncertainty: Theory and Practice (Applied Optimization)
C. Zopounidis , and
P.M. Pardalos
Manufacturer: Springer
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ASIN: 079235110X |
Book Description
This book provides a new point of view on the subject of the management of uncertainty. It covers a wide variety of both theoretical and practical issues involving the analysis and management of uncertainty in the fields of finance, management and marketing. Audience: Researchers and professionals from operations research, management science and economics.
Average customer rating:
- The problem is ambiguity and uncertainty,not risk alone
- Good for a Laugh
- Interesting read, author is quite optimistic.
- A fascinating alternative view of the financial system
- A Must Read!
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The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century
Robert J. Shiller
Manufacturer: Princeton University Press
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Irrational Exuberance
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The (Mis) Behavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin And Reward
ASIN: 0691120110 |
Book Description
In his best-selling Irrational Exuberance, Robert Shiller cautioned that society's obsession with the stock market was fueling the volatility that has since made a roller coaster of the financial system. Less noted was Shiller's admonition that our infatuation with the stock market distracts us from more durable economic prospects. These lie in the hidden potential of real assets, such as income from our livelihoods and homes. But these ''ordinary riches,'' so fundamental to our well-being, are increasingly exposed to the pervasive risks of a rapidly changing global economy. This compelling and important new book presents a fresh vision for hedging risk and securing our economic future.
Shiller describes six fundamental ideas for using modern information technology and advanced financial theory to temper basic risks that have been ignored by risk management institutions--risks to the value of our jobs and our homes, to the vitality of our communities, and to the very stability of national economies. Informed by a comprehensive risk information database, this new financial order would include global markets for trading risks and exploiting myriad new financial opportunities, from inequality insurance to intergenerational social security. Just as developments in insuring risks to life, health, and catastrophe have given us a quality of life unimaginable a century ago, so Shiller's plan for securing crucial assets promises to substantially enrich our condition.
Once again providing an enormous service, Shiller gives us a powerful means to convert our ordinary riches into a level of economic security, equity, and growth never before seen. And once again, what Robert Shiller says should be read and heeded by anyone with a stake in the economy.
Customer Reviews:
The problem is ambiguity and uncertainty,not risk alone.......2005-09-08
The major problem with this book is Shiller's basic misconception of what the major problem is concerning decision making about the future ,given the incomplete amount of relevant information available in the past and the present,based on what D.Ellsberg called ambiguous probabilities, J M Keynes called probabilities with low weight(uncertainty),and Benoit Mandelbrot called wild risk(as opposed to the mild risk of the normal probability distribution).Shiller bases his understanding on the "new"behavioral economics associated with the work of Tversky,Kahneman,Thaler,etc.This kind of approach emphasizes not the major problems of ambiguity,uncertainty,or wild risk of Ellsberg,Keynes,and Mandelbrot,but relatively mild problems associated with the Allais Paradox(certainty,reflection,translation,and preference reversal effects plus other assorted anomalies).The problem is that the Tversky-Kahneman approach ,and other associated approaches allied with them, are based fundamentally on the view that the normal distribution is the correct distribution to use for educated,rational decision makers.The problem ,then,is that decision makers in general are not rational;they are irrational and uneducated decision makers ,who allow their emotions,combined with their hopes and fears,to influence their decision making .All the anomalous behavior can be traced to the basic irrationality and ignorance of decision makers,who supposedly resort to all kinds of heuristic shortcuts because they have not mastered the fields of statistics and probability correctly.The position of Ellsberg,Keynes,and Mandelbrot is completely different.The decision maker is rational,but must "rely" on probabilities that he knows are unreliable,vague,ambiguous,unclear,and uncertain.In such a world the attempt to gain additional information,as in the stock market,leads to herd,crowd,and cascade effects as each individual decision maker attempts to obtain a little, additional amount of relevant information from other sources that he feels are better informed.Thus,it is the ambiguity or uncertainty of the future that leads to the creation of bubbles,manias,panics,and crashes.These events have little to do with the Tversky-Kahneman approach.The normal probability distribution is completely worthless as a guide to action in the stock market and other financial markets in the face of ambiguity ,uncertainty,or wild risk.In his preface(pp.ix-x),Shiller claims that"...economic thinkers have been limited by the state of relevant risk management principles of their day".Shiller claims that Keynes did not have command of such risk management ideas.The fact is that Keynes,Ellsberg,and Mandelbrot have forgotten more about these ideas than Shiller will ever know.All seven of Shiller's new types of markets and new types of insurance totally ignore the fundamental problem of ambiguity/uncertainty.They are put forth in the misbelief that the kind of decision making problems examined by Tversky-Kanheman are the main explanation for the boom-bust nature of financial markets , the volatility that results,and the unstable nature of such markets in a capitalist system.Shiller needs to completely rewrite this book and base it on a foundation of Keynes,Ellsberg,and Mandelbrot.
Good for a Laugh.......2005-08-06
What an odd book. Shiller reviews the up-sides of multiple forms of insurance without a thought to the down-sides. How much would being insured for every possible eventuality cost the user?
At times, I tended to agree with the reviewer quoted on the back cover -- 'pleasantly utiopian'. At other times, I more agreed with my father, who said, after I read aloud a passage about the draconian surveilance measures needed to enforce some of the insurance contracts Shiller advocates: 'He's a very bad man.'
Interesting read, author is quite optimistic........2005-04-08
This book is very interesting, but I think that the author in may be a bit full of himself. This is the same guy who wrote the book 'Irrational Exuberance' months after the stock market peaked in January 2000 and claims to have predicted it. I feel that most of the hype about Robert Shiller is Irrationally Exuberant. However this does not mean this book is not worth looking at. It has some interesting proposals, although many of them are either far-fetched or dangerously close to a creating a corporate Orwellian state.
A fascinating alternative view of the financial system.......2004-09-22
Shiller is a visionary economist. The problem with visionaries is that they do not always see the world the same way as everyone else.
This book outlines how Shiller believes a range of innovative risk management products could change the international financial system, and at the same time raise the living standards of ordinary people. Shiller wants to create derivative products which would allow people to use financial markets to hedge against loss of income, or the decline in the value of their house, for example.
Now this is pretty daunting stuff for the average reader, and I doubt that most of the people Shiller wants to help would fully appreciate the complexities of the things he advocates.
The other problem I have is that I simply don't believe all of Shiller's ideas are feasible. Moreover, even he would have to admit it is impossible to eliminate risk from life, yet that is what he tries to achieve.
I think it is a terrific book for those who want to ponder "what if." It can be a hard read though.
A Must Read!.......2004-06-12
Economist Robert Shiller became a household name when he published his previous bestseller Irrational Exuberance just as the dot.com boom was peaking. In The New Financial Order, he capitalizes on his celebrity to put forward a thoughtful, detailed proposal for managing economic risks. This highly readable book portrays a future in which many serious individual financial risks are dispersed to savvy global investors, thanks to technology. Imagine violinists being able to insure their careers in addition to their Stradivarius instruments, developing countries securing generous loans from the first world by tying the repayment schedules to their future GDPs and a revamped tax system preventing the gap between rich and poor from widening. We suggest this book to risk-management professionals who want to step back and look at the big picture, as well as to anyone who has a stake in creating new financial products to meet twenty-first century needs.
Book Description
Apart from standard actuarial theory,
Modern Actuarial Risk Theory contains methods that are relevant for actuarial practice, for instance the rating of automobile insurance policies, premium principles and IBNR models, as well as generalized linear models with an eye on actuarial applications. Furthermore extensive introductions are given to credibility theory and ordering of risks. The book reflects the state of the art in actuarial risk theory. In addition to some chapters which are compatible with official material of actuarial education in North-America, Europe and other parts of the world, the book contains important material on topics that are relevant for recent insurance and actuarial developments including determining solvency measures, fair-value computations, reserving, ranking of risks, modelling dependencies and the use of generalized linear models. Basic ideas on risk measures in the framework of insurance premiums are also considered. The numerous exercises contained in
Modern Actuarial Risk Theory, together with the hints for solving the more difficult ones and the numerical answers to many others, make the book useful as a textbook. Some important practical paradigms in insurance are presented in a way that is appealing to actuaries in their daily business. The mathematical background assumed is on a level such as acquired in the first stage of a bachelors program in quantitative economics or mathematical statistics.
Customer Reviews:
Needs more detailed explanations!.......2006-03-16
If you, like me, will start hating the whole subject of non-life insurance while reading this book, don't blame yourself, it's not your fault. The book needs more structure and detailing to be recommended to master students, not to mention bachelor ones.
Average customer rating:
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Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice (Academic Press Advanced Finance)
Jean-Paul Chavas
Manufacturer: Academic Press
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Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation
ASIN: 0121706214 |
Book Description
The objective of this book is to present this analytical framework and to illustrate how it can be used in the investigation of economic decisions under risk. In a sense, the economics of risk is a difficult subject: it involves understanding human decisions in the absence of perfect information. How do we make decisions when we do not know some of events affecting us? The complexities of our uncertain world and of how humans obtain and process information make this difficult. In spite of these difficulties, much progress has been made. First, probability theory is the corner stone of risk assessment. This allows us to measure risk in a fashion that can be communicated among decision makers or researchers. Second, risk preferences are now better understood. This provides useful insights into the economic rationality of decision making under uncertainty. Third, over the last decades, good insights have been developed about the value of information. This helps better understand the role of information in human decision making and this book provides a systematic treatment of these issues in the context of both private and public decisions under uncertainty.
* Balanced treatment of conceptual models and applied analysis
* Considers both private and public decisions under uncertainty
* Website presents application exercises in EXCEL
Download Description
The economics of risk has been a fascinating area of inquiry for at least two reasons. First, hardly any situation requiring economic decisions is certain. The sources of uncertainty are multiple and pervasive, including price risk, income risk, weather risk, and health risk. Resultantly, both private and public decisions under risk render considerable interest. Second, in recent years, there's been significant progress in understanding human behavior under uncertainty. Consequently, we now have a more refined framework to analyze decision making under risk. The author presents an analytical framework and illustrates how to use it to investigate economic decisions under risk. In a sense, the economics of risk is a difficult subject: it involves understanding human decisions in the absence of perfect information. How do we make decisions when we do not know some of events affecting us?
Book Description
The increasing complexity of insurance and reinsurance products has seen a growing interest amongst actuaries in the modelling of dependent risks. For efficient risk management, actuaries need to be able to answer fundamental questions such as: Is the correlation structure dangerous? And, if yes, to what extent? Therefore tools to quantify, compare, and model the strength of dependence between different risks are vital. Combining coverage of stochastic order and risk measure theories with the basics of risk management and stochastic dependence, this book provides an essential guide to managing modern financial risk.
* Describes how to model risks in incomplete markets, emphasising insurance risks.
* Explains how to measure and compare the danger of risks, model their interactions, and measure the strength of their association.
* Examines the type of dependence induced by GLM-based credibility models, the bounds on functions of dependent risks, and probabilistic distances between actuarial models.
* Detailed presentation of risk measures, stochastic orderings, copula models, dependence concepts and dependence orderings.
* Includes numerous exercises allowing a cementing of the concepts by all levels of readers.
* Solutions to tasks as well as further examples and exercises can be found on a supporting website.
An invaluable reference for both academics and practitioners alike, Actuarial Theory for Dependent Risks will appeal to all those eager to master the up-to-date modelling tools for dependent risks. The inclusion of exercises and practical examples makes the book suitable for advanced courses on risk management in incomplete markets. Traders looking for practical advice on insurance markets will also find much of interest.
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