Book Description
Noted coastal geologist Orrin Pilkey and environmental scientist Linda Pilkey-Jarvis show that the quantitative mathematical models policy makers and government administrators use to form environmental policies are seriously flawed. Based on unrealistic and sometimes false assumptions, these models often yield answers that support unwise policies.
Writing for the general, nonmathematician reader and using examples from throughout the environmental sciences, Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis show how unquestioned faith in mathematical models can blind us to the hard data and sound judgment of experienced scientific fieldwork. They begin with a riveting account of the extinction of the North Atlantic cod on the Grand Banks of Canada. Next they engage in a general discussion of the limitations of many models across a broad array of crucial environmental subjects.
The book offers fascinating case studies depicting how the seductiveness of quantitative models has led to unmanageable nuclear waste disposal practices, poisoned mining sites, unjustifiable faith in predicted sea level rise rates, bad predictions of future shoreline erosion rates, overoptimistic cost estimates of artificial beaches, and a host of other thorny problems. The authors demonstrate how many modelers have been reckless, employing fudge factors to assure "correct" answers and caring little if their models actually worked.
A timely and urgent book written in an engaging style, Useless Arithmetic evaluates the assumptions behind models, the nature of the field data, and the dialogue between modelers and their "customers."
Customer Reviews:
"Nature is written in the language of mathematics" (Galileo).......2007-08-12
I picked this book up because the premise is very interesting, and one of the book jacket reviewers--an academic who is known in the modelling world--called it "a must-read for anyone serious interested in the role of models in ... science and policy."
I was very disappointed. I think critiques of modelling are useful and instructive, whether or not you believe in the approach or not (though few scientists believe it is really useless). But the critiques should be both sound and constructive, and this book provides neither.
Math is a language, for sure, but it is the least ambiguous language we humans have, and is the easiest means by which we can understand complex phenomena. I agree with the authors that qualitative knowledge is essential in science, but I think their premise fails by not more closely evaluating the postive aspects of modelling.
One may find probably the best critique of ecological modelling in Charles Hall's classic 1988 paper, "An assessment of several of the historically most influential theoretical models used in ecology and of the data provided in their support." (One may find it readily on the web.) Instead of getting this book, just read Hall's paper--you'll be better off on both counts.
It's About Models.......2007-07-26
The first author is a retired professor of geology and a particular expert on beaches. He's a scientist's scientist, and clearly an opinionated and occasionally irascible guy. This book is a bit of a tirade in places but it's full of real examples, good data, and thought provoking stories. I enjoyed it a lot. The main theme is that the natural world is too complicated a place for quantitative models to work well, and that when politics is involved they can lead to really bad decisions. The majority of examples are drawn from cases where earth sciences meet human activities - sea level rise, beach erosion and "nourishment", hydrology of abandoned pit mines, storage of nuclear waste. Closely related are discussions of fishery management and invasive species. For the most part the book is well researched. The writing is clear - the book is an easy read and never boring.
Quantitative models are decried throughout the book, and the suggestion is made that what is reasonable is "qualitative" modelling. The distinction isn't really developed until the last chapter where some good examples are to be found. Still, the distinction isn't as crisp as I'd like - perhaps it is a qualitative difference and not a quantitative one! Another positive suggestion is that incrementalism is a generally better approach to interacting with the complexities of nature than the brittle approaches that arise from an overly numerate engineering mentality. In other words, instead of using quantitative models to plan enormous, long-term projects, try something on a small scale, observe the results, and go from there.
I came away with considerably more knowledge of the topics discussed. I was already a convert to the basic themes - that we tend to overestimate what we know, to trust numbers more than we should, that political processes often interact with science in ways that are inimical to both good decisions and greater knowledge. Several times I thought of Eisenhower's dictum that plans are generally useless but planning is essential. Perhaps that captures best the distinction Pilkey is trying to make about qualitative models.
Unlike some of the other reviewers, I was not offended by the political implications of anything Pilkey asserts. I didn't see it as either pro or anti global warming in any political sense. No hidden agendas here, it's really about modelling. Recommended.
Boring.......2007-06-28
Some of the complaints in other reviews are sound, but I will mention just one. This is a dull book. Longwinded, preachy. And aside from some jargon, there isn't much substance here beyond what you could say in 20 pages.
Great Idea - if only they had taken their own advice.......2007-05-17
As a systems engineer, I have practical experience in creating, testing, critiquing, and evaluating models that attempt to explain, predict, or illustrate system processes. Any engineer learns early on that regardless of what the model says - Reality Always Wins. Thus I was very interested in this book because of its evident intent to discuss the limitations of modeling as applied to natural processes.
Unfortunately, the authors exhibit a level of bias against any model they don't approve that is so over the top that I was constantly wondering what cheese would be served with the "whine". And then they cap it off by blindly accepting an entire range of dire global warming predictions, which are entirely derived from - you guessed it - models of complex natural processes. I guess if you like the model's answers then it is magically a good model.
I have a hard time accepting what appears to be intellectual dishonesty, so although the book makes some good points, I really can't recommend it. The authors also appear to be particularly upset with certain individuals and organizations in the coastal engineering community, because the animus comes through loud and clear.
If you really want a good book on the limitations of mathematical modeling as applied to the real world, there is a two-volume set called "Reality Rules" that is much better. However, the Reality Rules books are not aimed at the layperson, so be prepared for some real math in these books.
A pivotal work - outstanding.......2007-05-13
A pivotal work. Wherever one stands on the debate over human caused global warming, this book will raise questions. A well done investigation of mathematic global modeling pitfalls.
Book Description
Analysis and Management of Animal Populations deals with the processes involved in making informed decisions about the management of animal populations. It covers the modeling of population responses to management actions, the estimation of quantities needed in the modeling effort, and the application of these estimates and models to the development of sound management decisions. The book synthesizes and integrates in a single volume the methods associated with these themes, as they apply to ecological assessment and conservation of animal populations.
Key Features
*Integrates population modeling, parameter estimation and decision-theoretic approaches to management in a single, cohesive framework
* Provides authoritative, state-of-the-art descriptions of quantitative approaches to modeling, estimation and decision-making
* Emphasizes the role of mathematical modeling in the conduct of science and management
* Utilizes a unifying biological context, consistent mathematical notation, and numerous biological examples
Customer Reviews:
Didn't have book, Issued VERY fast refund.......2005-09-23
They didn't have the book even though it was posted. However they issued a very promt refund without any problems.
Good reference book.......2003-04-03
This book provides a good summary of methods and techniques that are available for wildlife studies. It is a good starting point for graduate students and researchers who would like to get a broad overview, but for more details on particular types of analysis, other resources are needed. For someone who has never been exposed to population biology, the expansive breadth of the book may be somewhat overwhelming.
Book Description
Grayson is Lynne Cox’s first book since Swimming to Antarctica (“Riveting”—Sports Illustrated; “Pitch-perfect”—Outside). In it she tells the story of a miraculous ocean encounter that happened to her when she was seventeen and in training for a big swim (she had already swum the English Channel, twice, and the Catalina Channel).
It was the dark of early morning; Lynne was in 55-degree water as smooth as black ice, two hundred yards offshore, outside the wave break. She was swimming her last half-mile back to the pier before heading home for breakfast when she became aware that something was swimming with her. The ocean was charged with energy as if a squall was moving in; thousands of baby anchovy darted through the water like lit sparklers, trying to evade something larger. Whatever it was, it felt large enough to be a white shark coursing beneath her body.
It wasn’t a shark. It became clear that it was a baby gray whale—following alongside Lynne for a mile or so. Lynne had been swimming for more than an hour; she needed to get out of the water to rest, but she realized that if she did, the young calf would follow her onto shore and die from collapsed lungs.
The baby whale—eighteen feet long!—was migrating on a three-month trek to its feeding grounds in the Bering Sea, an eight-thousand-mile journey. It would have to be carried on its mother’s back for much of that distance, and was dependent on its mother’s milk for food—baby whales drink up to fifty gallons of milk a day. If Lynne didn’t find the mother whale, the baby would suffer from dehydration and starve to death.
Something so enormous—the mother whale was fifty feet long—suddenly seemed very small in the vast Pacific Ocean. How could Lynne possibly find her?
This is the story—part mystery, part magical tale—of what happened . . .
Customer Reviews:
Wonderful story.......2007-09-28
This is a great story, I love the book and have given it to many friends
More self-absorbed than interesting.......2007-08-30
From the black, inky black, so very black ocean at the start to her misunderstanding of gray whales and sonar at the end, Grayson romps along but never quite gets there. I found myself repeatedly flipping to the author biography on the jacket flap, wondering how on earth Lynne Cox ever got published in The New Yorker...and how she could have apparently spent so much time in the ocean without learning very much about its inhabitants.
From the reviews, I was prepared to read about a singular connection between a human being and a gray whale made one lonely morning...instead I found a self-absorbed "true" story about a young woman's encounter with a young whale that wandered off course for several hours, then met up with its mother again. Despite Lynne's self-proclaimed connection with the ocean, she doesn't even realize the young whale is swimming near her until pointed out by her friend on the pier. And then suddenly she feels she is the one totally responsible for the whale, even swimming insanely out to an oil derrick offshore to stay with Grayson. Although she places herself front and center, this event involved many people, including dockside workers, lifeguard patrols, fishing boats, and even the ship Queen Mary. This comes as a slight shock to the reader, as her emphasis on the singularity of her swim with the whale initially has us believing the book is about her interaction with the whale, rather than a multi-pronged rescue effort. It would have read better as a simple narration of what happened, instead of her projections of what the whales were thinking, complete with dopey imaginings of telepathic whale-human connection.
I think there is a nice little story in here somewhere, but Lynne Cox desperately needs better editing, and would have done better to have written it as "based on a true story", which would have allowed the plethora of animal description and interaction without causing readers familiar with marine fauna to suffer from eyeroll strain.
Good read aloud.......2007-08-20
Because of the music of the prose here and the subject matter, this is a great little book to read aloud to kids. It's a charming little story, with a bit of oceanography thrown in.
For an afternoon on the sun porch..........2007-07-31
Greyson is a tale by Lynne Cox in which she has a close encounter with a large ocean dweller. Having taken place in her teens, this story is her "coming of age" in a few short hours. This book probably won't change your life, but it might just shift your perspective a little - and that is a good thing.
A bit of a disappointment.......2007-05-22
This book was a bit of a disappointment for me. I was hoping for a story about a whale, but got the reminicenses (sp) of a woman remembering...well, herself rather than the whale. She prattles on about her open-minded thinking and brash individualism. Whatever. I wanted to hear about the whale and the ocean. I suppose this could be taken as a motivational speech; but, again, I was hoping the whale would take center stage. I also wish she had written this as a younger woman so that we might have experienced some of her wonder and awe (at the creature -- not herself).
Average customer rating:
- Amazon purchase review
- Excelent book
- Great book for beginners and advanced.
- Easily one of the best on the topic
- Easy to understand, but simplifies a little too much
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A Primer of Ecology
Nicholas J. Gotelli
Manufacturer: Sinauer Associates
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A Primer Of Ecological Statistics
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Foundations of Ecology: Classic Papers with Commentaries
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Ecology: From Individuals to Ecosystems
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How to Do Ecology: A Concise Handbook
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Community Ecology
ASIN: 0878932739 |
Book Description
A Primer of Ecology, Third Edition, presents a concise but detailed exposition of the most common mathematical models in population and community ecology. It is intended to demystify ecological models and the mathematics behind them by deriving the models from first principles. The book may be used as a self-teaching tutorial by students, as a primary textbook, or as a supplemental text to a general ecology textbook.
The Primer explains in detail basic concepts of exponential and logistic population growth, age-structured demography, metapopulation dynamics, competition, predation, island biogeography, and, in a chapter new to this edition, succession. Each chapter is carefully graded from simple material that is appropriate for beginning undergraduates to advanced material, which is suited for upper-division undergraduates and beginning graduate students. Advanced topics include environmental and demographic stochasticity, discrete population growth and chaos, stage-structured demography, intraguild predation, nonlinear predator-prey isoclines, and passive sampling. Each chapter follows the same structure: model presentation and predictions, model assumptions, model variations, empirical examples, and problems.
Essential equations are highlighted for students' use. Intermediate algebraic "expressions" are also illustrated so that students see where the equations came from. New terms are introduced in the text in boldface type to alert students to novel concepts. The Primer contains more mathematical detail than many ecology textbooks, but avoids jargon and mathematical terminology that can intimidate students. Both simple and advanced problems are included, followed by fully worked solutions so that students can gain confidence and a better understanding of the models. Citations are kept to a minimum.
Customer Reviews:
Amazon purchase review.......2005-10-25
The book I ordered was in perfect condition and I received it very quickly!! I've always had excellent service from Amazon.com!
Excelent book.......2005-10-12
This book is an excelent work on population biology, it includes the basic elements to study the dynamics of population in nature, I recomend it.
Great book for beginners and advanced........2005-09-24
Gotelli has done a great job with this book. He explains most things concisely as well as thoroughly. He not only mentions the concepts, but the people and events leading to the discovery of those concepts. This can be a rare thing in textbooks. The only complaint I have is that he doesn't always explain the derivations of his equations, he just wants us to trust him on them. Other than that, a great book on Ecology for its size.
Easily one of the best on the topic.......2003-06-23
Four and one half stars.
Dr. Gotelli's book is the most successful which I am familiar at "demystifying" the mathematical concepts in ecology. "A primer of ecology" is very well organized and written so as not to frighten off the uninitiated, but covers the mathematics well enough to be an adequate refresher for those that have slipped in some areas. The inclusion of ecological succession in the 3rd edition is an important addition and not merely a reason to put out a new version. I highly recommend this text to anyone who is interested in learning about ecological study, and I think it would make an excellent senior undergraduate or supplemental graduate text.
Easy to understand, but simplifies a little too much.......2002-05-11
I found this book was a really good introduction to the subject - really clearly explained and laid out, unlike some other books I have read, which start of simple and then suddenly leap off into degree-level maths! However, it does tend to simplify a little bit (would have liked a little more information on the types of discrete and continous logistics that can be used).
All in all a really good book to buy to keep your feet on the ground when learning
Book Description
Thirty years ago, biologists could get by with a rudimentary grasp of mathematics and modeling. Not so today. In seeking to answer fundamental questions about how biological systems function and change over time, the modern biologist is as likely to rely on sophisticated mathematical and computer-based models as traditional fieldwork. In this book, Sarah Otto and Troy Day provide biology students with the tools necessary to both interpret models and to build their own.
The book starts at an elementary level of mathematical modeling, assuming that the reader has had high school mathematics and first-year calculus. Otto and Day then gradually build in depth and complexity, from classic models in ecology and evolution to more intricate class-structured and probabilistic models. The authors provide primers with instructive exercises to introduce readers to the more advanced subjects of linear algebra and probability theory. Through examples, they describe how models have been used to understand such topics as the spread of HIV, chaos, the age structure of a country, speciation, and extinction.
Ecologists and evolutionary biologists today need enough mathematical training to be able to assess the power and limits of biological models and to develop theories and models themselves. This innovative book will be an indispensable guide to the world of mathematical models for the next generation of biologists.
- A how-to guide for developing new mathematical models in biology
- Provides step-by-step recipes for constructing and analyzing models
- Interesting biological applications
- Explores classical models in ecology and evolution
- Questions at the end of every chapter
- Primers cover important mathematical topics
- Exercises with answers
- Appendixes summarize useful rules
- Labs and advanced material available
Book Description
Occupancy Estimation and Modeling is the first book to examine the latest methods in analyzing presence/absence data surveys. Using four classes of models (single-species, single-season; single-species, multiple season; multiple-species, single-season; and multiple-species, multiple-season), the authors discuss the practical sampling situation, present a likelihood-based model enabling direct estimation of the occupancy-related parameters while allowing for imperfect detectability, and make recommendations for designing studies using these models.
* Provides authoritative insights into the latest in estimation modeling
* Discusses multiple models which lay the groundwork for future study designs
* Addresses critical issues of imperfect detectibility and its effects on estimation
* Explores the role of probability in estimating in detail
Customer Reviews:
Great book for understanding site occupancy modeling.......2006-03-10
I think this is a pretty good book. It is the only reference on this relatively new type of patch occupancy modeling. It is mainly focused on the models of MacKenzie et al. and the Royle and Nichols model. This is a great place to start if you know nothing about this method or a good reference for advanced users.
This book does not fill the need of an introductory "how-to" book. If you want to know how to set up models and run them in program PRESENCE or MARK you will need to wait. Such a book does not exist. This is not a cookbook, but a compilation of the theory and an explanantion of the methodology behind occupancy estimation.
Average customer rating:
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Structured-Population Models in Marine, Terrestrial, and Freshwater Systems (Population and Community Biology Series)
Manufacturer: Springer
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ASIN: 0412072718 |
Book Description
This indispensable guide provides a comprehensive treatment of the construction and analysis of models for age- and stage-classified populations. It covers methods based on projection matrices, delay-differential equations, and partial-differential equations. The book addresses both field and laboratory studies on a wide range of specific ecosystems and taxa, as well as problems in evolution, genetics, conservation biology and epidemiology.
Book Description
Individual-based models are an exciting and widely used new tool for ecology. These computational models allow scientists to explore the mechanisms through which population and ecosystem ecology arises from how individuals interact with each other and their environment. This book provides the first in-depth treatment of individual-based modeling and its use to develop theoretical understanding of how ecological systems work, an approach the authors call "individual-based ecology."
Grimm and Railsback start with a general primer on modeling: how to design models that are as simple as possible while still allowing specific problems to be solved, and how to move efficiently through a cycle of pattern-oriented model design, implementation, and analysis. Next, they address the problems of theory and conceptual framework for individual-based ecology: What is "theory"? That is, how do we develop reusable models of how system dynamics arise from characteristics of individuals? What conceptual framework do we use when the classical differential equation framework no longer applies? An extensive review illustrates the ecological problems that have been addressed with individual-based models. The authors then identify how the mechanics of building and using individual-based models differ from those of traditional science, and provide guidance on formulating, programming, and analyzing models. This book will be helpful to ecologists interested in modeling, and to other scientists interested in agent-based modeling.
Customer Reviews:
Thorough.......2007-09-10
I haven't finished the book, but so far it's been very thorough on the subject and has given me lots of ideas for how to proceed on the project I'm working on. Would definitely recommend it.
Book Description
The third edition of this classic text maintains its focus on applications of demographic models, while extending its scope to matrix models for stage-classified populations. The authors first introduce the life table to describe age-specific mortality, and then use it to develop theory for stable populations and the rate of population increase. This theory is then revisited in the context of matrix models, for stage-classified as well as age-classified populations. Reproductive value and the stable equivalent population are introduced in both contexts, and Markov chain methods are presented to describe the movement of individuals through the life cycle. Applications of mathematical demography to population projection and forecasting, kinship, microdemography, heterogeneity, and multi-state models are considered.
The new edition maintains and extends the book's focus on the consequences of changes in the vital rates. Methods are presented for calculating the sensitivity and elasticity of population growth rate, life expectancy, stable stage distribution, and reproductive value, and for applying those results in comparative studies.
Stage-classified models are important in both human demography and population ecology, and this edition features examples from both human and non-human populations. In short, this third edition enlarges considerably the scope and power of demography. It will be an essential resource for students and researchers in demography and in animal and plant population ecology.
From the reviews:
"If you found the original editions...to be excellent (and who amoung us has not?) then you will find the new edition to be equally so...This book is highly and unreservedly recommended for any beginning mathematical demographer."
Mathematical Population Studies, 12:223-228, 2005
"The material in the second edition is retained, although the chapters are reorganized and references are updated. New chapters focusing on matrix population models are seamlessly interwoven with the second edition chapters, resulting in a thorough and comprehensive treatment of human, animal, and nonhuman demography."
Journal of the American Statistical Association, December 2005
Average customer rating:
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Modelling and Quantitative Methods in Fisheries
Malcolm Haddon
Manufacturer: Chapman & Hall/CRC
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Similar Items:
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Quantitative Fisheries Stock Assessment: Choice, Dynamics and Uncertainty
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Quantitative Fish Dynamics (Biological Resource Management Series
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Fisheries Ecology and Management
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The Ecological Detective
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On the Dynamics of Exploited Fish Populations
ASIN: 1584881771 |
Book Description
Quantitative methods and mathematical modelling are of critical importance to fishery science and management but, until now, there has been no book that offers the sharp focus, methodological detail, and practical examples needed by non-specialist fishery scientists and managers, and ecologists. Modelling and Quantitative Methods in Fisheries fills that void. To date, methodology books in fisheries science have been limited to cookbook approach to problems; simple compilations; or expositions in which either too much theory or insufficient methodological detail is given. The text is organized into three sections: an introduction to modelling in fisheries and ecology, a straight methodology section covering a range of methods, and a section focusing on specific fields in fisheries science. This book is timely as it addresses a topic of recent debate in fisheries and ecology, describing and comparing the uses of Least Squares, Maximum Likelihood, and Bayesian quantitative methods. Designed as stand-alone units, each chapter provides examples from both classic and recent literature and comes with dedicated Excel spreadsheets that permit you to delve into every detail of the analysis. All of these spreadsheets serve as active examples, which can easily be modified and customized and can be used as templates for analyzing your own data. The spreadsheets permit you to learn at your own speed and cover the simplest linear regression to the more complex non-linear modelling using maximum likelihood. Data analysis and modelling are best learned by doing and not just by reading. This book illustrates, step by step, the analyses it covers. More detailed in terms of introductory quantitative methods and modelling as applied to fisheries than any other book available, Modelling and Quantitative Methods in Fisheries gives you the advantage by supplying the full details of the analysis so that understanding the material is a matter of following the book.
Customer Reviews:
A primer for all of us.......2003-12-29
In my opinion, Malcolm Haddon has managed a "tour de force" with this book. He not only covered most of the modern methods of quantitative analysis and modelling in fisheries science but he did so in a clear and relatively simple language. His book is approachable to all biologists with a basic understanding of mathematics and statistics. Yet, he managed to cover both the theoretical underpinnings of the methods and the practical aspects of their use (options, pitfalls ... etc.). In addition, the book gives MS Excel examples of the methods which should allow those of us who are not programmers to fully appreciate the methods by using them interactively. The Excel spreadsheets are also available for download on two web sites.
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