Book Description
Why do catastrophes happen? What sets off earthquakes, for example? What about mass extinctions of species? The outbreak of major wars? Massive traffic jams that seem to appear out of nowhere? Why does the stock market periodically suffer dramatic crashes? Why do some forest fires become superheated infernos that rage totally out of control?
Experts have never been able to explain the causes of any of these disasters. Now scientists have discovered that these seemingly unrelated cataclysms, both natural and human, almost certainly all happen for one fundamental reason. More than that, there is not and never will be any way to predict them.
Critically acclaimed science journalist Mark Buchanan tells the fascinating story of the discovery that there is a natural structure of instability woven into the fabric of our world. From humble beginnings studying the physics of sandpiles, scientists have learned that an astonishing range of things–Earth’s crust, cars on a highway, the market for stocks, and the tightly woven networks of human society–have a natural tendency to organize themselves into what’s called the “critical state,” in which they are poised on what Buchanan describes as the “knife-edge of instability.” The more places scientists have looked for the critical state, the more places they’ve found it, and some believe that the pervasiveness of instability must now be seen as a fundamental feature of our world.
Ubiquity is packed with stories of real-life catastrophes, such as the huge earthquake that in 1995 hit Kobe, Japan, killing 5,000 people; the forest fires that ravaged Yellowstone National Park in 1988; the stock market crash of 1987; the mass extinction that killed off the dinosaurs; and the outbreak of World War I. Combining literary flair with scientific rigor, Buchanan introduces the researchers who have pieced together the evidence of the critical state, explaining their ingenious work and unexpected insights in beautifully lucid prose.
At the dawn of this new century, Buchanan reveals, we are witnessing the emergence of an extraordinarily powerful new field of science that will help us comprehend the bewildering and unruly rhythms that dominate our lives and may even lead to a true science of the dynamics of human culture and history.
From the Hardcover edition.
Customer Reviews:
Caos theory.......2007-06-14
I was unable to finish this book though it was recommended by a cousin. I just found that I got lost in all the formulas and expected outcomes. but I am sure that it is good research, just not for me.
Dissapointing ...........2007-01-09
It was well recommended to me but I found it quite boring and found myself fast forwarding through the chapters. It has an interesting theme - the cause of natural catastrophes - but for a science book I found it quite dissapoiting...
Good, but no answers really........2006-07-24
Its an interesting read. The reason I didnt give it 5 stars is that I have already read one of Marks previous books (Nexus) which has some overlap (not a lot) with this book. In fact it would be beneficial to readers to read the Nexus book before reading this one as what he writes about in that book really helps to understand this book.
I was really hoping for some more answers on how to predict things based on what Mark talks about but that is the essential outcome of the book, you cant predict things!
One of the best.......2006-05-28
This is the book that I would like to have written. Although being a popular account, it is scientifically accurate and carefull in its suggestions, always informing the reader what is consolidated science and what is scientific speculation.
In contrast to a previous review, I have read all the pages of this book. Since I am a physicist working in this very subject (self-organized criticality), I probably can say that if someone use the example of a Gaussian (bell shaped curve) to illustrate that the power laws discussed in the book are trivial, well, this person have not understood anything.
Gaussians have exponential decays, so they predict that very larg events (catastrophes) will occur with vanishing probability. For example, the heigh of people is distributed as a Gaussian. What is the probability of finding a 3 meter person?
Zero.
Distributions wich have power law tails, depending on the power exponent, may have no well defined variance or even average value. This means that there is no "average" earthquake, and that very big earthquakes (or other cathastrophes) are not "acts of God" but have a no desprezible chance of occur due to simple chain reactions of events.
I have introduced my students to ideas like critical states and modern physical thinking by using this book. So, I can recommend it to any reader without reserve. The emphasis by the author that critical chain reactions of events must be accounted by any view of History and Society is an important mind tool in our increasing interconnected (and, because it, prone to global chain reactions) world.
Much ado about nothing.......2006-03-19
I found this book incredibly boring. OK, I know this goes against the grain of other reviewers here. And I'll admit I'm only through the first 85 pages. But I already have that Ayn Rand feeling that the entire book is just going to rehash what's already been said.
I agree there are some interesting ideas, basically that we can't predict stuff very well. But here are a couple of examples of where Buchanan makes me suspicious that he really has the "Ph.D. in theoretical physics" stated on the back. The most egregious example so far, I think, is his statement on p. 85 that "take some really small number, such as .0001, change it by 10 percent, or even multiply it by 2 or 10 or 100 and you still have a very small number."
This, coming from a guy who has written page after page about scale invariance, seems just ludicrous. What on earth can he possibly mean by this nonsense??
Another example is his discussion of getting the friction issues wrong with the sliding blocks. Then he says, hey, but what about heat? (Bottom of p. 59). As if this great insight takes care of the problem of friction. How can a Ph.D. physicist make the mistake of thinking that heat is a new way of dealing with friction (duh?)
Another is his comment (bottom of p. 80) that the use of constants in the great differential equations of physics is some way mitigates the problem of tuning the blocks. He gives "c" in Maxwell's Equations and "h" in Quantum Mechanics, as examples of these. He writes "almost every good theory in the world has some numbers in it that have to be tuned to make the theory fit reality." But the "tuning" he's talking about with the sandpile and other games, has to do with the basic structure of the differential equations. "c" is a RESULT of Maxwell's Equations, not some "tuning" factor. It is true that the existence of Planck's constant is a fundamental feature of the equations, but its VALUE is simply a number that makes experimental observations work in SI units. Now Einstein's "cosmological constant" is much more like what Buchanan is talking about. But by this time one wonders if he really has a point here, or is just rambling on to cover up his hand-waving, and hoping he can get his book sold.
In my opinion, here is what this book is saying:
Let's take the example of the average temperature for my city on a given calendar date. The facts are these: the temperature over history for that date follows a bell-shaped curve. There IS a typical temperature. But the VARIATION of the actual temperature TODAY (i.e. a particular day) from the typical temperature is NOT very easy to predict. In fact, there is no TYPICAL VARIATION.
All we can say is that most days will have a small variation from the norm, and fewer days will have a larger variation from the norm. The "power law" concerns this variability. The larger the variability, the less likely it is to occur. If the average over time is 65 degrees, a lot of days in history will have had an average of 66 degrees on that date, and only a very few will have an average of 76 degrees on that date. Why is this fact worth writing an entire hold-your-breath book about?
Most days have no earthquakes. But when an earthquake DOES occur, we can't predict how big it will be. All we can say is that there will be more small earthquakes than large ones.
Well, duh!!
Yawn.
Book Description
Environmental disasters. Terrorist wars. Energy scarcity. Economic failure. Is this the world's inevitable fate, a downward spiral that ultimately spells the collapse of societies? Perhaps, says acclaimed author Thomas Homer-Dixon - or perhaps these crises can actually lead to renewal for ourselves and planet earth.
The Upside of Down takes the reader on a mind-stretching tour of societies' management, or mismanagement, of disasters over time. From the demise of ancient Rome to contemporary climate change, this spellbinding book analyzes what happens when multiple crises compound to cause what the author calls "synchronous failure." But, crisis doesn't have to mean total global calamity. Through catagenesis, or creative, bold reform in the wake of breakdown, it is possible to reinvent our future.
Drawing on the worlds of archeology, poetry, politics, science, and economics, The Upside of Down is certain to provoke controversy and stir imaginations across the globe. The author's wide-ranging expertise makes his insights and proposals particularly acute, as people of all nations try to grapple with how we can survive tomorrow's inevitable shocks to our global system. There is no guarantee of success, but there are ways to begin thinking about a better world, and The Upside of Down is the ideal place to start thinking.
Customer Reviews:
Eloquent and timely.......2007-09-05
In this pathbreaking work Thomas Homer-Dixon illustrates the complex and tenuous relations between the human ecology and the natural systems upon which society, markets, and structures of governance are based. He warns that human populations, and their high rates of resource consumption, are rapidly outstripping the regenerative capacity of the planet. A principal contribution of the work lies in his argument that energy flows play a central role in the maintainance of economic and socio-political stability. Homer-Dixon's exploration of the role of energy in the collapse of previous political institutions is rather novel and deserves serious consideration.
Moreover, Homer-Dixon has a rare talent for weaving advances in the natural sciences into the policy literature and communicating advanced concepts to the reader with clarity and precision. His discussions of complexity, emergent properties, and panarchy are particularly illuminating. A wonderful read.
Reflecting in the fog.......2007-08-24
The key question in this book is raised in the very middle: "Why don't we face reality?" A major reason is that we are groping in a fog to learn what that reality is. Homer-Dixon likens our society to a driver careering along a country road in a dense fog. We can barely see what's ahead, but we're somehow confident that no mishap will befall us. We've gotten this far safely. As we drive, we're guided by the mantra of "endless economic growth". We have some idea where we've been, but remain uncertain about what lies ahead. Worse, we don't seem to care. Ignoring the warning signs indicating that all might not be well we continue along our course. In this excellent study of how our society is progressing and where it's likely going, the author clearly outlines the various options before us and what actions we can take to prevent serious disruptions.
The book is a call for preparation. Resilience is what our outlook and our policies should undertake to prevent disasters that we cannot handle. Having observed and reflected on these issues for several years, Homer-Dixon concludes that major difficulties lie ahead. We cannot avoid them - they're already here or loom in the near future. He lists some of the obvious ones: terrorism is now a part of life, climate change beyond our experience is already with us, and economic and social disruption causes have already been pinpointed. His model used as the basis of assessment is the Roman Empire. He cites three examples of what the Empire accomplished, the Colosseum, the road and aqueduct networks and the Temple of Jupiter at Baalbek, Lebanon. All these enterprises required immense amounts of energy, yet a society without engineering schools achieved them all successfully. It worked only so long as the energy was available and applied efficiently. Our schools taught us that the Romans built their imperium on slavery, but Homer-Dixon shows that concept to be false. Oxen pulled the 256 carts of material required by the Colosseum and free peasant farmers supplied the basic energy needs. The Empire collapsed only when the energy required failed. We need to understand what can be learned from that Empire offer, and Homer-Dixon demonstrates how pertinent the lessons are today.
The author's formula for assessment is EROI - Energy Return On Investment. We've been profligate in energy use, and it's future availability is a major concern of the his. "Peak oil" has been the topic of so many books and articles, it should be old news. The author notes how the petroleum industry and those dependent on it keep up a continuous barrage of denial propaganda to discourage us from believing that evident fact. The "globalised" economy was supposed to reduce the distinction between rich and poor. Not only is it having the opposite effect, but it's increasing the consumption of energy in the process. While a number of recent books stress the threats posed by environmental change, Homer-Dixon sees that as but one element in a far larger picture. He deals with a full range of pressures building up to threaten society. He likens them to tectonic stresses likely to snap unexpectedly at any time.
Unlike some books making forecasts or offering timetables of potential catastrophe, Homer-Dixon's more circumspect. He's more concerned with demonstrating that the kinds of "growth" we've experienced cannot endure. What and when surprise setbacks occur is of less importance to him than how we adjust to them. He's not addressing a small coterie of "movers and shakers" with this work His prose style is just short of that of a story-telling narrative. He means for all of us, taxpayers, policy-makers and even academics and scientists, to participate in the development and preparation of new sets of options for survival. We will all be effected by the unfolding events. While this may seem that the author's "Down" is inevitable and final, he prefixed it with "Upside" for a reason. His opening depicts the destruction of a city - San Francisco in the 1906 earthquake and fire. The city didn't collapse and die, but recovery meant a new approach to disaster planning. We must follow that example, or our collapse will be more severe. It will be global and possibly all-consuming. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]
Required Reading for all Who Care About the Planet.......2007-07-05
This brilliant, courageous, inspiring, multidisciplinary book unflinchingly examines the ominous, ever increasing tectonic pressures--population imbalances, energy shortages, environmental damage, global warming, and the widening gaps between rich and poor--that threaten to disrupt, if not topple, civilization.
Historical, ecological, political, economic, scientific, sociological and psychological threads are woven together in a fascinating, extremely readable analysis of the mess we are in, how we got here, what we can expect in the future, and what we can do about it.
Homer-Dixon does not provide magic bullet solutions to our problems because, in fact, none exists. He does, however, suggest four important actions, including boosting the overall resilience of our civilization, especially critical systems like energy and food distribution. Most importantly, he stresses the cultivation of the prospective mind, which includes an openness to radically new ways of thinking about our world and about how we should live our lives.
The author states that "when a social earthquake erupts--when the established order starts to crack and crumble--much depends on what happens in the period immediately following the initial shock." A mega-crisis has the potential to jolt people awake from their social conditioning, and can bring out the very worst or the very best in people. Homer-Dixon tells us to prepare for that moment, so the forces of reason, tolerance and compassion will prevail.
This book is not for those wanting to pretend that band-aide solutions from corporate-owned politicians will save us. This book is a zen-like slap in the face designed to zap denial, and awaken prospective, creative intelligence, so that bold new solutions to our planetary problems can emerge.
If I could, I would make The Upside of Down required reading for everyone on the planet. When it comes to defining the global crisis, it is by far the best of the following related books which I've recently read:
James Howard Kunstler, The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil,
Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-
First Century (2006)
Stephen Leeb, The Coming Economic Collapse (2006)
Chalmers Johnson, Nemesis: The Last Days of the American Republic (2006)
Sir Martin Rees, Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning (2003)
David Korten, The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community (2006)
Bill McKibben, Deep Economy: The Wealth of Communities and the Durable
Future(2007)
Raine Eisler, The Real Wealth of Nations: Creating a Caring Economics
(2007)
Jerry Mander & John Cavanagh, Alternatives to Economic Globalization
(2004)
Paul Hawken, Blessed Unrest: How the Largest Movement in the World Came
into Being and Why No One Saw it Coming (2007)
Lester Brown, Plan B2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a
Civilization in Trouble(2006)
Paul & Anne Ehrlich, One With Nineveh: Politics, Consumption and the
Human Future(2004)
An Excellent Read.......2007-05-17
This book dispels myths about global warming and sets the stage for what may or could likely happen. It's not just about global warming, that is just one consequence of how we choose to live. I'm not sure if Thomas Homer-Dixon has it all, but his book is very well researched and referenced. It reads well and one of those books that you don't want to put down, even if that is the upside of down.
The Upside of Down.......2007-05-07
Homer-Dixon suggests that the current state of the Western world in many ways mirrors that of Rome prior to its fall. He argues that the increasing complexities of maintaining such a society as Rome contributed greatly to its demise. Speaking to some of the complexities of today's world, he addresses such issues as globalization, desolving energy sources, socio-economic disparaties, terrorism, and others, Homer-Dixon.
The Upside of Down is a fine negotiation of the many issues involved. Homer-Dixon demonstrates the interconnectedness of global events and issues while remaining optimistic. He answers the exreme optimism of writers like Thomas Friedman without being alarmist. He has also made great efforts to make this readable. I would recommend The Upside of Down to anyone interested in globalization, global warming, energy resources and the like.
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Connectivity, Complexity and Catastrophe in Large-scale Systems (International Series on Applied Systems Analysis)
John L. Casti
Manufacturer: John Wiley and Sons Ltd
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Book Description
The dream of the twentieth century was the construction of mass utopia. As the century closes, this dream is being left behind; the belief that industrial modernization can bring about the good society by overcoming material scarcity for all has been challenged by the disintegration of European socialism, capitalist restructuring, and ecological constraints. The larger social vision has given way to private dreams of material happiness and to political cynicism.
Developing the notion of dreamworld as both a poetic description of a collective mental state and an analytical concept, Susan Buck-Morss attempts to come to terms with mass dreamworlds at the moment of their passing. She shows how dreamworlds became dangerous when their energy was used by the structures of power as an instrument of force against the masses. Stressing the similarities between the East and West and using the end of the Cold War as her point of departure, she examines both extremes of mass utopia, dreamworld and catastrophe.
The book is in four parts. "Dreamworlds of Democracy" asks whether collective sovereignty can ever be democratic. "Dreamworlds of History" calls for a rethinking of revolution by political and artistic avant-gardes. "Dreamworlds of Mass Culture" explores the affinities between mass culture's socialist and capitalist forms. An "Afterward" places the book in the historical context of the author's collaboration with a group of Moscow philosophers and artists over the past two tumultuous decades. The book is an experiment in visual culture, using images as philosophy, presenting, literally, a way of seeing the past. Its pictorial narratives rescue historical data that with the end of the Cold War are threatened with oblivion and challenge common conceptions of what this century was all about.
Customer Reviews:
Where's the Beast?.......2004-03-24
Having been raised in the ideological wasteland of 20th century America, I found this book an interesting read. It could be seen as a vindication of Chomskii's idea that the Cold War was a fake, in which the 2 sides's respective leaders colluded to pick the pockets of their respective peoples in order to finance the buildup of huge military machines which could be used to suck the blood of the 3rd world. My main disappointment, aside from ocassional annoying forays into psuedo-intellectual gibberish (especially the Soviet "nomenklatura" variety,), was the author's failure to inquire into the cause of the socialistic failure, apparenty assuming the fact that the leaders of neither side actually had any interest in the welfare of their people was sufficient explanation. It seems more likely to me that the collapse of social welfare is an inevitable result of the global population-explosion (i.e. as the population increases & the competition for Earth's resources intensifies & grows increasingly vicious, things are bound to deteriorate). Considering that the Wise Men of yore warned us of this problem long ago (i.e. population-explosion becoming the "Beast of Armagedon" & threatening to drag us to our doom with it's 4 Horsemen of Famine, Plague, War, & Avarice when we had finished the job of replenishing the Earth), it's hard to understand why the global intelligensia don't get it. Perhaps the "dumbing-down of America" has taken it's toll on the rest of the world, as well.
Daddy Stalin and Warbucks: Friends 'Til the End.......2001-09-21
Buck-Morss's tale of the sputtering, guttering end of the modern Fordist disciplinary project both in the U.S.A and in the Soviet Union is a stunner. Most compelling are the historical insights -- told with particular elegance through the comparison of patriotic and advertising images -- that show how similar both projects really were! Some of the historical tidbits stick in the mind never to be dislodged: Daddy Stalin asking Henry Ford to come build him a factory to make tractors in the middle of the Depression. Lenin's admiration for Frederick Taylor. Amazing how the salvation for both communists and capitalists was the same industrial regime, the same worker's paradise of factory labor!
The second half of the book, a kind of diary of cross-cultural US/Soviet cultural exchanges prior to and after the Berlin Wall, is interesting but less intellectually energizing. Still, there is a great deal of wit in Ms. Buck-Morss's observation that Western Marxist critics such as Frederick Jameson (who attended some of the same seminars with Soviet intellectuals that Buck-Morss did) seem less willing to give up on the socialist dreamscape than their Soviet counterparts.
A great companion read is Michael Hardt's and Antonio Negri's "Empire" which really has an interesting take on the near simultaneous end of Fordism and the disciplinary state in both the U.S. and Soviet Union. They suggest it was the "multitude" or proletariat in both nations who rebelled against the industrial factory/modern project and destabilized both, an argument which runs counter to the usual top-down explanations for the rise of postmodern economics.
Interesting how we're told these days that the Soviets, now suffering in the hot bath of capitalism, are nostalgic for the certainty of the Daddy Stalin years. Perhaps their nostalgia is not so different than Baby Boomer Americans' nostalgia for the lost innocence of the early 50s/60s, the Golden Age of American economic hegemony, before the New Deal project finally collapsed. Now that the veil has dropped it seems we had a lot more in common with "them"(us) than we ever thought we did. And still do!
The Betrayal of History.......2001-02-25
'Dreamworld and Catastrophe' is a cry of anguish disguised as the interdisciplinary analyses of a (neo-)Marxist scholar. It is a fragmentary and tortured reaction to the betrayal of history, in the best of Walter Benjamin's tradition, consciously emulated in this tome by this leading authority on the Frankfurt School. It is painful to wade through the convolutions of denial, intellectualization and projection that constitute the first part ('Democracy' - the political framework). The next two sections ('History' and 'Mass Culture')are a joyride of erudition and an intellectual tour de force. The last part - a dry chronicle of the comings and goings of the author's milieu amidst the disintegration of the USSR and the emergence of Russia - is anti-climactic. The opus in its entirety does not fuflil the blurb's somewhat hubristic promise: 'This book offers a revaluation of the twentieth century'. Sam Vaknin, author of 'After the Rain - How the West Lost the East'
Book Description
Did the Earth once undergo a super ice age, one that froze the entire planet from the poles to the equator? In
Snowball Earth, gifted writer Gabrielle Walker has crafted an intriguing global adventure story, following maverick scientist Paul Hoffman’s quest to prove a theory so audacious and profound that it is shaking the world of earth sciences to its core.
In lyrical prose that brings each remote and alluring locale vividly to life, Walker takes us on a thrilling natural history expedition to witness firsthand the supporting evidence Hoffman has pieced together. That evidence, he argues, shows that 700 million years ago the Earth did indeed freeze over completely, becoming a giant “snowball,” in the worst climatic catastrophe in history. Even more startling is his assertion that, instead of ending life on Earth, this global deep freeze was the trigger for the Cambrian Explosion, the hitherto unexplained moment in geological time when a glorious profusion of complex life forms first emerged from the primordial ooze.
In a story full of intellectual intrigue, we follow the irascible but brilliant Hoffman and a supporting cast of intrepid geologists as they scour the planet, uncovering clue after surprising clue. We travel to a primeval lagoon at Shark Bay in western Australia, where dolphins cavort with swimmers every morning at seven and “living rocks” sprout out of the water like broccoli heads; to the desolate and forbidding ice fields of a tiny Arctic archipelago seven hundred miles north of Norway; to the surprising fossil beds that decorate Newfoundland’s foggy and windswept coastline; and on to the superheated salt pans of California’s Death Valley.
Through the contours of these rich and varied landscapes Walker teaches us to read the traces of geological time with expert eyes, and we marvel at the stunning feats of resilience and renewal our remarkable planet is capable of.
Snowball Earth is science writing at its most gripping and enlightening.
From the Hardcover edition.
Customer Reviews:
engrossing science story.......2007-04-10
This is a book about a remarkable theory: that several times in its ancient history, the earth was literally a dirty snowball. Gabrielle Walker provides a highly readable account of the story and personalities behind this revolutionary idea. SNOWBALL EARTH is aimed at the curious layman, not the specialist. Even so, the author does an impressive job explaining the evidence for the theory without distorting the essentials or condescending to the reader.
One of the best things about SNOWBALL EARTH is its colorful cast of characters. Too many science writers ignore the human element or depict researchers as passionless data processors wrapped in lab coats. Refreshingly, Walker eschews this approach and offers intimate and unvarnished glimpses of these people in the field or interacting with peers. Her reporting shows her subjects to be a diverse lot. Some are kind-hearted, almost angelic beings; others are aloof and argumentative. Most seem a complex mix of good and bad, like the rest of us. What they all have in common, however, is a burning need to solve the riddle of the earth's mysterious past. The author deserves high marks for adding a psychological twist to this fascinating tale of scientific achievement.
It's informative and fun to read, but the author needs to change her attitude on how to report on science!!.......2007-03-23
So, while debate on the Snowball Earth goes on and gets more and more sophisticated in academic hallways and at conference venues, we start to get the popularized versions for the laypublic! At least that means geology can be fun.... Good news for getting grants!
After reading this nice book, I'm at a loss whether giving it one star or five... (So we make it three and that's it! Solved...) It really makes for a good read, it's gripping in pace, clear in the narrative, entertaining in the many little stories that flow into the big one in the end.. And Gabrielle Walker knows how to write, for sure. In the end one has a feeling that not only the core, but also the various facets, of the Snowball hypothesis have been addressed and explained a little... Good job then!
And that's the five stars... But now more about the one star. Not because I want to be nasty, but because addressing the problems can be more important than lingering on the good sides sometimes... Well, I mean, Miss Walker has won enough prizes and accolades for her science journalism, she doesn't need little anonymous me too into that chorus??
Well... The disappointing part of the book lies exactly in its being entertaining!! I found too much emphasis on the people, the stories and anecdotes about individual scientists, and too little hard science. Too many romantic digressions on landscapes and memories, not one single diagram or hand-drawing to accompany concepts that might remain obscure to the layreader if left only to words.. Because she definitely didn't spend much words in trying to explain the basic principles at the foundations of the science she's talking about! There are no fewer than 5 pages about the author's recollections (!) of getting lost in the Namibian bush... Not one single page to explain the general workings of Earth's climate system... (Which is, after all, the main point of the whole book??)
The layreader may end up confused while trying to pick up bits of science from between the novelistic parts, and reconstruct the puzzle for him- or herself. Well, if this was intended to be a popularizing essay on the subject, then it's a major issue I think...
In addition... Gabrielle Walker dispassionately sides for those proposing and supporting the Snowball stuff, and too quickly "writes past" the critics. She declares herself a Snowball groupie right from the very first line, which doesn't promise good in terms of objectivity, does it... Well, science is done with data and evidence, and there's too much attachment to certain positions on the part of the author to feel sure she carefully evaluated all the ideas in an impartial way while recounting the whole story. This is also, in the end, why the book reads so pleasantly. But assuming an emotional position about a topic, and especially about those who argue about it, isn't the best start to commit oneself as an objective reviewer..
Last, but not least! Although admittedly it sounds more like just a personal note... I am getting quite fed up with this thing about Earth scientists being scared of breaking the "uniformitarian" taboo! And even more fed up when this simplistic assumption is introduced for the millionth time with the banalized account of how ideas developed on the dinosaurs-meteorite controversy. Which is still far from being totally solved, by the way, even if the media people like to think otherwise.. We do not hold fast to ancient concepts about the development of the Earth, and we don't need to be shaken out of our disbelief by the rhetoric and the passion of adventurous pioneers into new, extraordinary branches of geology... We only need sensible collections of evidence, accompanied by just as sensible sets of explanations... Then yes, you have acceptance of a new theory by the scientific community. It can be that simple...
Which means, for instance, that the recent objections raised by Nick Eyles from Toronto to the Snowball bandwagon, based on very basic and important principles of sedimentary geology, count more than how deeply Hoffman and mates "believe" into their working hypotheses... Facts and reasoning can be enough to justify informed skepticism even in the face of how new fantastic ideas would make our world seem a lot more fun to study and tell about...
So, yes, in spite of feeling offended when called just a "tourist" in this big geological controversy by Hoffman (pag. 143 of the hardback edition), Miss Walker has to face the fact of still being actually just a tourist here. At least as long as she doesn't develop the right approach to analyze this kind of controversies. She's not one of us... And you can feel it only too well in the book after all!
(And it would help in her career as a science essayist if she learned the fundamental difference between "hypothesis" and "theory"... Because in these days of rampant ignorance and counterscientific movement, especially in certain big countries in the West, the layreader could use clarification on how scientists actually think... Would favor the acceptance of a few important concepts that science advanced about our world and lives, but that are still mired down into the swamps of religion, pseudoscience and plain old misunderstanding...)
Sounds bad, but like I said in the start, I actually enjoyed the book very much and recommend it heartily for all those who want to learn about this interesting geological debate. Just watch out for the points I mentioned above.....
Theory yes, data kind of.......2007-03-18
As previous reviewers state, this is more about the story of the development of the theory and the interaction among scientists during this development. This book can be appreciated by the layman or scientist. I downgraded the evaluation from 5 to four stars because there is no data other than verbal explanations. Not a graph, chart, table, illustration, or even a photograph. The author visited some of the field sites discused in the book, along with the scientist whose research covered the site, but not even one photo.
Excellent, but not very in-depth........2005-06-23
I truly enjoyed this book. It revealed the scientific theory more in the form of a story than just a book of factual information pertinent to the theory.
One need not have any knowledge of or even much interest in geology to enjoy this book. The basic outline of Snowball Earth is that there is extensive geological evidence that there was a global freeze-over about 700 million years ago that ended the precambrian era of unicellular "slime", and possibly caused or affected the following cambrian explosion.
This book is very much a story of Paul Hoffman and his friends and colleagues, and I would not recommend it for someone looking for an in-depth explanation of the snowball theory.
A Snowball in Hell.......2005-04-29
Who among us is not interested in the history of our own blue-white planet and the origin of life, even if it is only through creation myths?
Author, Gabrielle Walker earned her Ph.D. in chemistry at Cambridge University and spent seven years as a features editor at "New Scientist." The latter experience definitely had a hand in molding her breezy, yet clear and conscientious style. She follows her intrepid geologists to the ends of the Earth like an eager cub reporter in some 1930s B-movie, peppering them with questions, almost getting trampled by an African elephant in the Namibian bush, beset by freezing fog in the Kalahari Desert, clambering down the windswept, godforsaken rocks of Mistaken Point in Newfoundland.
This book is a combination travel guide to some of the least habitable places on earth, biographical sketches of the scientists who developed and tested the 'Snowball Earth' theory, and an introduction to the painstaking science behind the newest, most audacious 'deep time' history of our planet.
Before we get to 'Snowball Earth,' let me give you a flavor of Walker's running travelogue. Here she is speaking of Mistaken Point: "Nobody could love these barren lands, not even their mother. They are dreary and damp, their plants the color of overcooked spinach and rusty nails; when the wind is not buffeting them or rain beating them down, they are shrouded in fog. The pale, thin caribou wander over them like lost souls."
Now, on to the theory as expounded by this book. Several times in the history of Earth, most recently 700 million years ago, our planet froze completely over, possibly because all of the continents had migrated close to the Equator. This deep-freeze may have ended the multi-billion-year reign of single-cell slime and given a kick-start to the Cambrian explosion of complex life. Snowball Earth was finally melted by a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, courtesy of volcanic eruptions which turned our planet into a hellish, hurricane-ripped green-house. Eventually the excess carbon dioxide was absorbed back into the oceans and the planetary crust. Multi-cellular life reveled in the first decent climate it had ever experienced, not realizing that meteor strikes and volcanic eruptions would occasionally wipe out up to 90% of its evolved species.
Could we get a repeat of Snowball Earth? Sure. As a matter of fact, the continents seem to be sliding toward the Equator again, which will allow ice to build up at the Poles and advance toward Earth's bulging midline. Will this happen during our lifetime? Nah. As Gabrielle Walker so vividly expresses it, the continental plates move at roughly the same speed our fingernails grow.
The geologists, paleontologists, and their science form the core of this marvelously written book. Walker does a meticulous job of relating both the scientific and the human side of the 'Snowball Earth' controversy. Her incisive portraits of the scientific movers and shakers, most especially the fiercely competitive Paul Hoffman, will stick in your mind long after you forget about drop stones, tidal rhythmites, and magnetic reversals in the Flinders ice rocks.
Average customer rating:
- Dauber is the Man
- saf
- Book Bad - Me no like.
- i hated this book no action
- Excellent popular science about evolution of the universe.
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The Three Big Bangs (Helix Books)
Philip M. Dauber , and
Richard A. Muller
Manufacturer: Basic Books
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
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ASIN: 0201154951 |
Amazon.com
The universe was created in the first Big Bang, but according to Philip Dauber and Richard Muller that alone couldn't have been sufficient to set the stage for life on Earth today. Two more big bangs were needed: one in the form of a supernova that seeded the solar system with heavy elements; the second a devastating asteroid or comet impact 65 million years ago that exterminated the dinosaurs and permitted the evolution of mammals and ultimately humans. The Three Big Bangs describes the science behind each of these events in a colorful manner. It provides an easily accessible survey of key theories in cosmology, but readers more familiar with these principles may yearn for greater detail and rigor. Still, as an overview of three classes of cosmological cataclysms and their role in shaping the world as we know it, The Three Big Bangs succeeds.
Customer Reviews:
Dauber is the Man.......2006-04-05
Haven't read the book, but Dauber was my high school physics teacher and he is the man. Dude has a boat
saf.......2004-05-30
okay...i admit it, i thought he would be nice...but that has changed. i don't like him anymore, he is too stuffy. he is still brilliant, tho.
Book Bad - Me no like........2002-02-07
Boring, not good. What's the deal with his hair?
i hated this book no action.......1999-04-01
there should of been more storie
Excellent popular science about evolution of the universe........1996-12-19
The authors' three big bangs are 1) THE Big Bang thought to
have given birth to the known universe, 2) the later explosions
of supernovas which produced the heavy elements not
originally present in the early universe, which was dominated
by the light elements hydrogen and helium, and 3) the crash of
a comet or asteroid near the Yucatan peninsula 65 million
years ago, which destroyed the dinosaurs and gave fresh
opportunities to mammals and, eventually, to us humans. For
the authors, these diverse events are linked because they have
each played an enormous role in determining the nature of the
world we now live in. These three big bangs give us a strong sense of physical
evolution, comparable to the modern view of biological
evolution. This is a new perception. When I was a child in the
1940's I read everything about popular astronomy I could get
my hands on. The view I got at the time was of a completely
static universe, in which nothing much ever happened. The
universe was magnificent and awesome but certainly not
dynamic. Now the universe is a place of explosive evolution
and is vastly more magnificent and awesome. "The Three Big
Bangs" tells this story well. This is a book that openly panders
to our fascination with violence, but in a way that is socially
acceptable!
Book Description
Almost every scientist has heard of catastrophe theory and knows that there has been a considerable amount of controversy surrounding it. Yet comparatively few know anything more about it than they may have read in an article written for the general public. The aim of this book is to make it possible for anyone with a comparatively modest background in mathematics - no more than is usually included in a first year university course for students not specialising in the subject - to understand the theory well enough to follow the arguments in papers in which it is used and, if the occasion arises, to use it. Over half the book is devoted to applications, partly because it is not possible yet for the mathematician applying catastrophe theory to separate the analysis from the original problem. Most of these examples are drawn from the biological sciences, partly because they are more easily understandable and partly because they give a better illustration of the distinctive nature of catastrophe theory. This controversial and intriguing book will find applications as a text and guide to theoretical biologists, and scientists generally who wish to learn more of a novel theory.
Customer Reviews:
A concise intro.......2002-11-16
This is a concise intro to catastrophe theory that is aimed mainly at undergrad level folks, or those who are looking for a streamlined version of Rene Thom's groundbreaking _Structural Stability and Morphogenesis_.
Most terms and concepts are explained adequately. The text is essentially a narrative for the algebra and differential equations that comprise the primary explanatory mechanism of the book. There is far less reliance on topology in this book than Thom's, and it tends to appear mainly in the things like the visualization of the obligatory seven elementary catastrophe types.
The applications given are intended to be fairly simple to understand (in keeping with the lack of specialization of the intended audience), so they are fine for an intro book, but I would tend to call them only "examples" rather than "applications".
I contrast this book with Thom's by saying that this intro book will give you the mechanics of catastrophe theory and some examples, whereas Thom's book paints a much broader conceptual picture with many profound speculations on the applications of catastrophe theory. Both books have their respective value and I feel they are good complements to each other to the newcomer to catastrophe theory.
A concise intro.......2002-11-16
This is a concise intro to catastrophe theory that is aimed mainly at undergrad level folks, or those who are looking for a streamlined version of Rene Thom's groundbreaking _Structural Stability and Morphogenesis_.
Most terms and concepts are explained adequately. The text is essentially a narrative for the algebra and differential equations that comprise the primary explanatory mechanism of the book. There is far less reliance on topology in this book than Thom's, and it tends to appear mainly in the things like the visualization of the obligatory seven elementary catastrophe types.
The applications given are intended to be fairly simple to understand (in keeping with the lack of specialization of the intended audience), so they are fine for an intro book, but I would tend to call them only "examples" rather than "applications".
I contrast this book with Thom's by saying that this intro book will give you the mechanics of catastrophe theory and some examples, whereas Thom's book paints a much broader conceptual picture with many profound speculations on the applications of catastrophe theory. Both books have their respective value and I feel they are good complements to each other to the newcomer to catastrophe theory.
A concise intro.......2002-11-16
This is a concise intro to catastrophe theory that is aimed mainly at undergrad level folks, or those who are looking for a streamlined version of Rene Thom's groundbreaking _Structural Stability and Morphogenesis_.
Most terms and concepts are explained adequately. The text is essentially a narrative for the algebra and differential equations that comprise the primary explanatory mechanism of the book. There is far less reliance on topology in this book than Thom's, and it tends to appear mainly in the things like the visualization of the obligatory seven elementary catastrophe types.
The applications given are intended to be fairly simple to understand (in keeping with the lack of specialization of the intended audience), so they are fine for an intro book, but I would tend to call them only "examples" rather than "applications".
I contrast this book with Thom's by saying that this intro book will give you the mechanics of catastrophe theory and some examples, whereas Thom's book paints a much broader conceptual picture with many profound speculations on the applications of catastrophe theory. Both books have their respective value and I feel they are good complements to each other to the newcomer to catastrophe theory.
A concise intro.......2002-11-16
This is a concise intro to catastrophe theory that is aimed mainly at undergrad level folks, or those who are looking for a streamlined version of Rene Thom's groundbreaking _Structural Stability and Morphogenesis_.
Most terms and concepts are explained adequately. The text is essentially a narrative for the algebra and differential equations that comprise the primary explanatory mechanism of the book. There is far less reliance on topology in this book than Thom's, and it tends to appear mainly in the things like the visualization of the obligatory seven elementary catastrophe types.
The applications given are intended to be fairly simple to understand (in keeping with the lack of specialization of the intended audience), so they are fine for an intro book, but I would tend to call them only "examples" rather than "applications".
I contrast this book with Thom's by saying that this intro book will give you the mechanics of catastrophe theory and some examples, whereas Thom's book paints a much broader conceptual picture with many profound speculations on the applications of catastrophe theory. Both books have their respective value and I feel they are good complements to each other to the newcomer to catastrophe theory.
Book Description
Chaos and catastrophe theories have become one of the major frontiers in the social sciences. Brown helps to clarify this complex new technique for modeling by approaching it with the following questions: What is Chaos? How can it be measured? How are the models estimated? What is catastrophe? How is it modeled? Beginning with an explanation of the differences between deterministic and probabilistic models, Brown introduces the reader to chaotic dynamics. Other topics covered are finding settings in which chaos can be measured, estimating chaos using nonlinear least squares, and specifying catastrophe models. Finally, the author estimates a nonlinear system of equations that models catastrophe using real survey data. Researchers wanting to understand and make use of this exciting new direction in social measurement and modeling will find this book an excellent and cogent introduction.
Book Description
Catastrophe theory, introduced in the 1960s by René Thom, has found applications across many fields: biology, economics and chemical kinetics. It is fundamental to qualitative dynamics concerning the phenomena of bifurcation and chaos. This Second Edition includes new chapters on genericity and the stability of unfoldings. The proofs for both these topics have never before been available in a textbook. The First Edition chapters have been revised and now include new material. Most important among them is the incorporation of the theorem in Chapter 4 on the uniqueness of the residual singularity. The presentation retains its pragmatic approach, the material is self-contained, and the style is as elementary as possible, presuming only knowledge of calculus and linear algebra at an advanced undergraduate level.
Book Description
"One of the most important books to be published on Global Warming, this is the first to challenge the (almost) universally held view that Climate Change is entirely due to man`s activity. It also challenges the belief that Global Warming is a reversible trend and details a hitherto almost unremarked phenomenon which, it is conjectured, is the true cause of climate change. The book Catastrophe? - A New Theory As To The Cause of Global Warming foretells the collapse of human society and the demise of this civilization. It also gives a direct insight into the mechanisms of increasingly rapid Climate Change and details the effect of the changes in these on human behaviour. Are we doomed? This book can inform your opinion."
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