Book Description
Noted coastal geologist Orrin Pilkey and environmental scientist Linda Pilkey-Jarvis show that the quantitative mathematical models policy makers and government administrators use to form environmental policies are seriously flawed. Based on unrealistic and sometimes false assumptions, these models often yield answers that support unwise policies.
Writing for the general, nonmathematician reader and using examples from throughout the environmental sciences, Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis show how unquestioned faith in mathematical models can blind us to the hard data and sound judgment of experienced scientific fieldwork. They begin with a riveting account of the extinction of the North Atlantic cod on the Grand Banks of Canada. Next they engage in a general discussion of the limitations of many models across a broad array of crucial environmental subjects.
The book offers fascinating case studies depicting how the seductiveness of quantitative models has led to unmanageable nuclear waste disposal practices, poisoned mining sites, unjustifiable faith in predicted sea level rise rates, bad predictions of future shoreline erosion rates, overoptimistic cost estimates of artificial beaches, and a host of other thorny problems. The authors demonstrate how many modelers have been reckless, employing fudge factors to assure "correct" answers and caring little if their models actually worked.
A timely and urgent book written in an engaging style, Useless Arithmetic evaluates the assumptions behind models, the nature of the field data, and the dialogue between modelers and their "customers."
Customer Reviews:
"Nature is written in the language of mathematics" (Galileo).......2007-08-12
I picked this book up because the premise is very interesting, and one of the book jacket reviewers--an academic who is known in the modelling world--called it "a must-read for anyone serious interested in the role of models in ... science and policy."
I was very disappointed. I think critiques of modelling are useful and instructive, whether or not you believe in the approach or not (though few scientists believe it is really useless). But the critiques should be both sound and constructive, and this book provides neither.
Math is a language, for sure, but it is the least ambiguous language we humans have, and is the easiest means by which we can understand complex phenomena. I agree with the authors that qualitative knowledge is essential in science, but I think their premise fails by not more closely evaluating the postive aspects of modelling.
One may find probably the best critique of ecological modelling in Charles Hall's classic 1988 paper, "An assessment of several of the historically most influential theoretical models used in ecology and of the data provided in their support." (One may find it readily on the web.) Instead of getting this book, just read Hall's paper--you'll be better off on both counts.
It's About Models.......2007-07-26
The first author is a retired professor of geology and a particular expert on beaches. He's a scientist's scientist, and clearly an opinionated and occasionally irascible guy. This book is a bit of a tirade in places but it's full of real examples, good data, and thought provoking stories. I enjoyed it a lot. The main theme is that the natural world is too complicated a place for quantitative models to work well, and that when politics is involved they can lead to really bad decisions. The majority of examples are drawn from cases where earth sciences meet human activities - sea level rise, beach erosion and "nourishment", hydrology of abandoned pit mines, storage of nuclear waste. Closely related are discussions of fishery management and invasive species. For the most part the book is well researched. The writing is clear - the book is an easy read and never boring.
Quantitative models are decried throughout the book, and the suggestion is made that what is reasonable is "qualitative" modelling. The distinction isn't really developed until the last chapter where some good examples are to be found. Still, the distinction isn't as crisp as I'd like - perhaps it is a qualitative difference and not a quantitative one! Another positive suggestion is that incrementalism is a generally better approach to interacting with the complexities of nature than the brittle approaches that arise from an overly numerate engineering mentality. In other words, instead of using quantitative models to plan enormous, long-term projects, try something on a small scale, observe the results, and go from there.
I came away with considerably more knowledge of the topics discussed. I was already a convert to the basic themes - that we tend to overestimate what we know, to trust numbers more than we should, that political processes often interact with science in ways that are inimical to both good decisions and greater knowledge. Several times I thought of Eisenhower's dictum that plans are generally useless but planning is essential. Perhaps that captures best the distinction Pilkey is trying to make about qualitative models.
Unlike some of the other reviewers, I was not offended by the political implications of anything Pilkey asserts. I didn't see it as either pro or anti global warming in any political sense. No hidden agendas here, it's really about modelling. Recommended.
Boring.......2007-06-28
Some of the complaints in other reviews are sound, but I will mention just one. This is a dull book. Longwinded, preachy. And aside from some jargon, there isn't much substance here beyond what you could say in 20 pages.
Great Idea - if only they had taken their own advice.......2007-05-17
As a systems engineer, I have practical experience in creating, testing, critiquing, and evaluating models that attempt to explain, predict, or illustrate system processes. Any engineer learns early on that regardless of what the model says - Reality Always Wins. Thus I was very interested in this book because of its evident intent to discuss the limitations of modeling as applied to natural processes.
Unfortunately, the authors exhibit a level of bias against any model they don't approve that is so over the top that I was constantly wondering what cheese would be served with the "whine". And then they cap it off by blindly accepting an entire range of dire global warming predictions, which are entirely derived from - you guessed it - models of complex natural processes. I guess if you like the model's answers then it is magically a good model.
I have a hard time accepting what appears to be intellectual dishonesty, so although the book makes some good points, I really can't recommend it. The authors also appear to be particularly upset with certain individuals and organizations in the coastal engineering community, because the animus comes through loud and clear.
If you really want a good book on the limitations of mathematical modeling as applied to the real world, there is a two-volume set called "Reality Rules" that is much better. However, the Reality Rules books are not aimed at the layperson, so be prepared for some real math in these books.
A pivotal work - outstanding.......2007-05-13
A pivotal work. Wherever one stands on the debate over human caused global warming, this book will raise questions. A well done investigation of mathematic global modeling pitfalls.
Book Description
The present book describes the methodology to set up agent-based models and to study emerging patterns in complex adaptive systems resulting from multi-agent interaction. It offers the application of agent-based models in demography, social and economic sciences and environmental sciences. Examples include population dynamics, evolution of social norms, communication structures, patterns in eco-systems and socio-biology, natural resource management, spread of diseases and development processes. It presents and combines different approaches how to implement agent-based computational models and tools in an integrative manner that can be extended to other cases.
Average customer rating:
- Great Book for Anyone
- Great interdisciplinary book on environmental modeling
- Modeling the Environment
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Modeling the Environment: An Introduction To System Dynamics Modeling Of Environmental Systems
Andrew Ford
Manufacturer: Island Press
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Dynamic Modeling of Environmental Systems (Modeling Dynamic Systems)
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Believing Cassandra: An Optimist Looks at a Pessimist's World
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Dynamic Modeling (Modeling Dynamic Systems)
ASIN: 1559636017 |
Book Description
Modeling the Environment is the first introductory textbook for a technique of rapidly growing importance. It requires little or no mathematical background, and is appropriate for undergraduate environmental students as well as professionals new to modelling. Developed from the author's own introductory course, it is classroom-tested and represents an important contribution to the field of system dynamics.
Modeling techniques that allow managers and researchers to see in advance the consequences of actions and policies are becoming increasingly important to environmental management. The models produced are vital analytical tools that aid the policy-setting and implementation process, and help us to understand how environmental systems respond to management interventions.
Modeling the Environment is a basic introduction to one of the most widely known and used modeling techniques, system dynamics. The book is designed to build the skills of students as they progress from learning fundamental ideas to constructing models of increasing complexity. Written in a clear and comprehensible style, the book:
- presents basic concepts of modeling using system dynamics
- illustrates the mechanics of model construction through a range of working models
- offers a rich array of exercises for students to use in applying the principles and techniques described in the text
- walks students through the design and application of models of specific types of environmental systems
.
In addition, the book contains more than 300 figures and model illustrations, and provides a guide to an interactive website where students can use the text to "navigate" management flight simulators ? models of both real and hypothetical systems developed by the author. The book also contains appendixes that help students review the necessary math, and which provide additional concepts and exercises for further study.
Customer Reviews:
Great Book for Anyone.......2006-12-12
This is a great book for anyone who wants to gain a thorough understanding of Stella software. The book is easy to read, and the examples and case studies are well chosen.
Great interdisciplinary book on environmental modeling.......2000-05-24
A highly readable introduction to environmental modeling. What distinguishes the book from other environmental science and environmental modeling works is its interdisciplinary treatment. In particular, the models integrate the physical world and the world of human behavior. Far too many environmental models fail to close the feedbacks between human behavior and the state of the environment, instead taking waste inputs or resource use as exogenous. This book helps students learn to model human behavior (social and economic) as an integral part of the ecological system. The models and software mean the book encourages active learning, and enable students to explore important issues on their own if they choose.
Modeling the Environment.......2000-04-24
This book is easy to read and contains clear examples of how to use stella software to model the environment. The marvel here is the software, not the book. For the software timid, it might suppliment the software users guide.
Average customer rating:
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Methods for Wastewater Characterization in Activated Sludge Modelling: Werf Report Project 99-wwf-3 (Werf Report)
H. Melcer
Manufacturer: Water Environment Research Foundation
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- VR Excursions Landfill Research Review.
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VR Excursions: Exploring Earth's Environment, Version 1.0
Michael Kelly ,
Michael Ort ,
Jay Shiro Tashiro , and
Steven Semken
Manufacturer: Pearson Education
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Geology for Engineers and Environmental Scientists (3rd Edition)
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Engineering Mechanics - Statics (Engineering Mechanics)
ASIN: 0130962627 |
Customer Reviews:
VR Excursions Landfill Research Review........2000-11-11
VRX is interactive environmental education software that helps undergraduate students learn by performing realistic field research without leaving the classroom. The theme of the program is to "Learn Science by Doing Science", and each of the three virtual worlds that the student explores allows the student to perform several research projects. The program includes a CD-ROM and 200-page workbook. The three virtual reality worlds include a landfill, a nuclear waste repository and coal power. The pedagogical premise is that the students learn by questioning. Each research topic prompts the student to think about posing a question and then trying to answer it by following the scientific method.
The introduction in the workbook is excellent, it provides four sections as a resource for the students. They include: Doing Science, Learning Science; What's the Question?; Who's Responsible for Teaching and Learning; and Choose a Pathway to Learning. Each provides valuable information to the undergraduate student on how to conduct research and learn from it, how to work with your professor and taking charge of your own learning.
The introduction to each individual research section provides a link between the students' daily lives and the topic being researched, which connects the student to the research and makes the work mean something to the student on a personal level.
The easy to use CD-ROM features a computer-generated landfill with groundwater, leachate and gas monitoring wells, analytical instruments for collection of samples and real time analytical parameters. The workbook provides the lesson activities along with tables for data compilation by the student, background information, and additional prior knowledge information to be used in each research project.
The opening frame shows a virtual office with an extensive library of reference materials on the bookshelf to the left and a Simulation Selector to the right. It also features login feature that requires the student to login to begin the simulations.
The library includes easy to understand text on use of the instruments, landfill construction, solid waste laws, landfill gas, landfill leachate, geology and geographic maps which provide information needed to successfully complete the program. The simulation selector provides the student access to the three virtual worlds.
The landfill VRX main screen includes a plane view map with locations of the roads and various monitoring wells, a navigable windshield view of the landfill that allows the student to "drive" the landfill roads to reach the monitoring wells. This screen also provides a running total of fieldwork costs based on the amount of time the program is in use by the student or team.
After arriving at a monitoring well the student clicks on one of several analytical instruments to obtain realistic data from the wells. The data is then used in conjunction with the workbook to construct a groundwater elevation map, determine ground water flow direction, contaminate load and contaminate migration and potential risk of contamination to drinking water wells.
The program encompasses 5 of the 7 Earth System Education Understandings and makes strong use of number 4, that the earth is composed of the interacting subsystems of water, rock, ice, air and life.
As both a student and an instructor, I found the program interesting, scientifically accurate and up to date with current rules and regulations pertaining to landfills. Students learn better by seeing the subject matter and by performing the subject matter as the program terms it "learning by doing". This program provides the students with the opportunity to learn by doing either in groups or as individuals, in a time frame that allows the instructor to perform high quality science in a short period of time and at a very low cost.
Average customer rating:
- Obligatory reading!
- Comprehensive -- Not exactly a "light read"
- Indespensible reference.
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Numerical Ecology (Developments in Environmental Modelling)
P. Legendre , and
L. Legendre
Manufacturer: Elsevier Science
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ASIN: 0444892508 |
Book Description
The book describes and discusses the numerical methods which are successfully being used for analysing ecological data, using a clear and comprehensive approach. These methods are derived from the fields of mathematical physics, parametric and nonparametric statistics, information theory, numerical taxonomy, archaeology, psychometry, sociometry, econometry and others. Compared to the first edition of Numerical Ecology, this second edition includes three new chapters, dealing with the analysis of semiquantitative data, canonical analysis and spatial analysis. New sections have been added to almost all other chapters. There are sections listing available computer programs and packages at the end of several chapters. As in the previous English and French editions, there are numerous examples from the ecological literature, and the choice of methods is facilitated by several synoptic tables.
Customer Reviews:
Obligatory reading!.......2005-11-04
This is the best book on numerical ecology available. Legendre & Legendre are already a classical on communities data analysis, and this second edition is a fundamental update. The book should be always around when you are analysing complex data sets and want a correct method and a valid interpretation.
Comprehensive -- Not exactly a "light read".......2005-10-04
A great resource for graduate level and above. This book is comprehensive in terms of numerical ecology and is for the more advanced quantitative ecologist. My area of interest is site similarity indices, and I have only begun to tap into the knowledge available in this book on the subject. I am sure I will be returning to it repeatedly through the years.
Indespensible reference........1999-05-26
This is THE TEXT to have if you use any of the numerical techniques in the field of quantitative ecology. Its scope if exhaustively comprehensive. The authors clearly explain which methods are at your disposal under given circumstances and which are inappropriate to use. Many of the methods described are illustrated with case studies of ecological examples from the literature. In most cases, the authors walk you thru the computational steps involved in using a particular numerical method--this would make it possible for the reader to construct a "home grown" algorithm for methods unavailable in "off-the-shelf" statistical packages. In addition, the book is also thankfully littered with citations and references for those computer programs that are available for each of the methods described...this is very up-to-date material, as many of these references are web sites!
Average customer rating:
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Offshore Risk Assessment: Principles, Modelling and Applications of QRA Studies
Jan-Erik Vinnem
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Risk Management: With Applications from the Offshore Petroleum Industry (Springer Series in Reliability Engineering)
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Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management (Wiley Series in Systems Engineering and Management)
ASIN: 0792358600 |
Book Description
Offshore Risk Assessment is the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for some years in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.
The book starts with a thorough discussion of risk analysis methodology. Subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems. Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: Fire, explosion, collision and falling objects. Risk mitigation and control are then discussed, followed by an outline of an alternative approach to risk modelling that focuses especially on the risk of short-duration activities.
Not only does the book describe the state of the art of QRA, it also identifies weaknesses and areas that need development.
Readership: Besides being a comprehensive reference for academics and students of marine/offshore risk assessment and management, the book should also be owned by professionals in the industry, contractors, suppliers, consultants and regulatory authorities.
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Computer Simulated Plant Design for Waste Minimization/Pollution Prevention (Computer Modeling for Environmental Management Series)
Stan Bumble
Manufacturer: CRC
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Environmental science combined with computer technology. One click on a mouse and information flows into your PC from up to 10,000 miles away. When you receive this information you can ferret through the data and use it in any number of computer programs. The result: solutions to plant design problems that affect the health and well being of people around the globe. What does that mean to you, the environmental professional, scientist, or engineer? Computer Simulated Plant Design for Waste Minimization/Pollution Prevention builds on the concepts introduced in Stan Bumble's Computer Generated Physical Properties, the first volume of the Computer Modeling for Environmental Management series. Bumble discusses using computer simulation programs to solve problems in plant design before they occur. He covers design issues for stationary and non-stationary sources of pollution, global warming, troposcopic ozone, and stratospheric ozone. With Computer Simulated Plant Design for Waste Minimization/Pollution Prevention you will understand how to use computer technology to design plants that generate little or no pollution. Even better, you can use the information generated by computer simulation for technical data in proposals, presentations and as the basis for making policy decisions.
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Handbook of Environmental and Ecological Modeling (Environmental & Ecological (Math) Modeling)
Sven E. Jorgensen
Manufacturer: CRC
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ASIN: 156670202X |
Book Description
With descriptions of hundreds of the most important environmental and ecological models, this handbook is a unique and practical reference source. The Handbook of Environmental and Ecological Modeling is ideal for those working in environmental modeling, including regulators and managers who wish to understand the models used to make assessments. Overviews of more than 360 models are easily accessed in this handbook, allowing readers to quickly locate information they need about models available in a given ecosystem. The material in the Handbook of Environmental and Ecological Modeling is logically arranged according to ecosystem. Each of the sixteen chapters of the handbook covers a particular ecosystem, and includes not only the descriptions of the models, but also an overview of the state-of-the-art in modeling for that particular ecosystem. A summary of the spectrum of available models is also provided in each chapter. The extensive table of contents and the easy-to-use index put materials immediately at your fingertips.
Book Description
Humanity is risking the health of the natural environment through a myriad of interventions, including the atmospheric emission of trace gases such as carbon dioxide, the use of ozone-depleting chemicals, the engineering of massive land-use changes, and the destruction of the habitats of many species. It is imperative that we learn to protect our common geophysical and biological resources. Although scientists have studied greenhouse warming for decades, it is only recently that society has begun to consider the economic, political, and institutional aspects of environmental intervention. To do so raises formidable challenges of data modeling, uncertainty, international coordination, and institutional design.
Attempts to deal with complex scientific and economic issues have increasingly involved the use of models to help analysts and decision makers understand likely future outcomes as well as the implications of alternative policies. This book presents in detail a pair of models of the economics of climate change. The models, called RICE-99 (for the Regional Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) and DICE-99 (for the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy) build on the authors' earlier work, particularly their RICE and DICE models of the early 1990s. They can help policy makers design better economic and environmental policies.
Customer Reviews:
An excellent cutting edge book on a vital issue........2004-05-16
The scientific community has developed an overwhelming concensus that global warming is occuring, and is caused at least in part by human activity. William Nordhaus has led the way in studying the potential economic cosequences of global warming, and this book should be considered essential reading for those who are more than a little interested in topic (and shouldn't we all be?). Nordhaus describes past work on the economic costs of global warming, uses a summing-up approach to arrive at estimates of damage costs for greenhouse gas emissions, then compares these results to abatement cost estimates for various policy options. This allows cost-benefit analysis to inform the reader and policymakers about the economic effectiveness of different responses to the problem of global warming.
While some people may question the doom-and-gloom scenarios of activists on this issue, the general criticism leveled by economists critiquing Nordhaus' past work is that he has been, if anything, too conservative in his approach and his assumptions. In the present work, Nordhaus has reduced the rate of discounting for more distant future economic values, increased the range of costs considered, and increased the complexity of his model, thereby strengthening the results of his analysis.
The ideal reader for this book will have some background in economics and statistical analysis, allowing him to fully appreciate the quality of Nordhaus' work, but readers less schooled in these disciplines will be able to glean much valuable information from Nordhaus' approachable descriptions of the problem, the analysis, and the conclusions. Again, William Nordhaus is the acknowledged leader in researching costs of global warming. "Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming" should find its way to college classrooms and private bookshelves alike.
Replace assumption with knowledge........2001-08-29
The author assumes as factual the uses of ozone eating chemicals and destruction wrought by emissions of trace gases. Hence the possibility opens up to discuss the tremendously complex ways in which the problems need to be addressed. It will come as a complete surprise to both the author and the unsuspecting reader that there are no problems which need such complex and costly remedies. There is no gain in sacrificing the public's wealth on avoiding risks which do not exist. All the money spent contributes to is the material well-being of those involved in addressing the man-made catastrophe predictions. This volume is long on words and short on intellectual honesty.
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