Gray Dawn: How the Coming Age Wave Will Transform America--and the World

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The greatest demographic event to happen this century was the baby boom. From 1946 to 1965, 76 million live births were recorded in the United States alone, a phenomenon that's been responsible for everything from the surge in baby-food products in the '50s and early '60s to the roaring stock market of today, fueled in part by boomers investing for retirement. Peter Peterson, author of Gray Dawn, looks ahead at the implications of the baby boom, and what he sees is not the bliss that many of us imagine for our golden years but rather an iceberg that threatens to sink the economy and disenfranchise subsequent generations.

As former chairman of Lehman Brothers and founding president of the Concord Coalition, Peterson, whose previous books include Will America Grow Up Before It Grows Old?, is no stranger to this topic. In Gray Dawn, he takes a worldview of "global aging," and considers countries such as Japan and Italy, where the problem of an aging population coupled with declining fertility are creating particularly acute and, in some cases, unsustainable generational disparities. Peterson writes that "We must make aging both more secure for older generations and less burdensome for younger generations." To this end he offers several solutions, among them encouraging longer working lives and requiring people to save for their own retirement. But avoiding the iceberg means turning the wheel now, before it's too late. Thoughtful, well-researched, and full of charts and statistics that do well to underscore Peterson's main arguments. If you've ever wondered what retirement might look like, you'll find this a provocative read. --Harry C. Edwards

Book Description

There's an iceberg dead ahead. It's called global aging, and it threatens to bankrupt the great powers. As the populations of the world's leading economies age and shrink, we will face unprecedented political, economic, and moral challenges. But we are woefully unprepared. Now is the time to ring the alarm bell . . .

Customer Reviews:

The Numbers Tell All -- International Bankruptcy.......2000-11-21

Pete Peterson has written several books on the looming bankruptcy of the Social Security system. In this book, he covers the G-7 nations, which are in worse shape than the United States is.

On page 72, he makes a point that I should have seen sometime over the last 41 years, when I first began looking into this problem. An unfunded liability must be amortized, just like a home mortgage. As of 1999, the unfunded liability of Social Secutrity was $10 trillion. The unfunded liability of Medicare was also $10 trillion. The yearly amortization payment that the U.S. government must set aside each year to fund these two programs over the next 30 years at 6% interest is $1.4 trillion per year. You can verify this on any amortization calculator on the Web. Just take off 9 zeroes when you enter 20,000, and stick them back on when you derive the yearly amortization figure.

The estimated U.S. government budget for fiscal 2000 is $2 trillion. This means that, in order to fund these two off-budget programs, the government must spend 75% of its budget.

Peterson might also have made this point: If (if!!!!) the government does not do this, then this year's $1.4 trillion shortfall must be added to the total unfunded liability. And if the government refuses to fund next year's amortization schedule, it will add another $1.5 trillion. And so on, until.... "Sorry, gramps: no more payments to you." I'm age 58. That's me.

The Federal Reserve System will create the money, thereby creating mass inflation, or else Congress will move up the retirement age, year by year, stiffing the geezers. The government-guaranteed retirement myth will end.

The book shows that Japan will hit the actuarial brick wall in 2003. Italy will hit it in 2005. The G-7 dominoes will topple.

This is a great book. When the chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations says a crisis is looming, you had better believe it.

Not-so-great a book but for other reasons...........2000-11-01

This isn't an exceptionally good book for a number of reasons that aren't really being euclidated in the other reviews.

First, whoever reads this obviously has to realize that the author was a partner at an investment bank AND leans conservatively. These two points DO give liberals reason to question where his heart lies; to discount the whole of the book for that reason hints that readers aren't being open minded and fair. And before you write this review off as bad, note that I gave it two stars too....

Peterson tries in this book to make a point-- that due to what in techincal terms are called Phase-III demographic shifts (i.e. birth rate falls, death rate falls, a higher percentage of the population reaches the retirement age...) the means of entitlement that have become traditional don't work as simply any more. In his other book ('The greying...') he makes the case for the United States; in this one he focuses on Western Europe.

His evidence as presented is valid. There is no lock-box; paying for my retirement (I'm 22 right now...) with the wages of my children will be impossible without significant structural changes in the system. (Personally, I think that paying for it with the stock market is pretty bad karma too.... but that's neither here nor there for this review....) European countries and Japan are due to be hit doubly hard because of their traditionally-greater entitlements and the specifics of their demographies.... most economists would agree on these points....

And his solutions are good-- given that people have the ability to save (assuming that people reliant on Social Security do.... not other rich people... like the author...) and that people are willing to work. His solutions aren't biased so much by his position excepting the possibility that he may not realize that for lots of people, saving is an impossibility.... working longer in years is more or less a definate....

But these aren't really earth-shattering ideas. Adding to this, I find his writing style annoying. More so than this, I find reviewers who have slammed this book as being bad just based on it being written by an I.Banker annoying.

Think! And.... by a book on this pheonomenon by a better economist.... who doesn't try to dumb down the information....

This Book Is Silly, Superficial, & Politically-Motivated!.......2000-06-16

This book is chock-full of speciousnonsense,employingsuperficial and misleading use of statistics,worst-case scenarios, and outright horror stories more designed to frighten and divide different elements of the American electorate for crass conservative political purposes than it is an objective and useful text about the subject at hand. What neo-conservative apologist Mr. Pete Petersen and the think-tank (isn't that an absolute oxymoron?) he's associated with doesn't want you to know is that our heroes in the U.S. Congress have been systematically frittering away the 'surplus' money all we aging soon-to-be-seniors have been contributing since the late 1960s in order to hide their own profligate and irresponsible spending agendas like STAR WARS and the new missile defense system that can't tell a warhead from a drone. Hey, guys! Have a bake-sale instead.

In essence, the only reason social security is potentially underfunded in the long-term is because of their ( ), waste, and abuse. A small corrective action taken now by Congress can correct an imbalance. Yeah, I know, congressional action is another oxymoron, but a fellow has to have some hope. Hey! Why don't we curtail the Congress's retirement program instead? Not in this life. More seriously, Mr Petersen uses the worst possible case scenario to build his case, assuming all seniors will stop working, that the economy will not contiue to grow, and ignoring the fact that all the money given to seniors by way of social security and medicare go back into the economy and is not "lost" at all, any more than money spent on defense or agriculture by the Congress is lost. Only in Mr. Petersen's neighborhood.

The bottom line in all this is that there are obviously a number of much better, clearer, and smarter books that make much more sense about the prospects associated with the aging babyboomer population as well as covering the welter of issues associated with the long-term social, economic, and political impacts one can reasonably associate with a gradually aging population. Try "America The Wise" by Theodore Roszak out instead, and consign this gloomy, silly, superficial and self-serving piece of neo-conservative political ( ) for the dustbin of history, where it rightly belongs. END

WARNING; ELITE ATTITUDE.......1999-11-21

PETERSON IS THE SAME MAN WHO WANTS RETIRED PEOPLE TO LIVE ON LESS. PETERSON HAPPENS TO BE A MEGA MILLIOMAIRE ELITEST WHO NEVER HAD TO SLOSH THROUGH THE TRENCHES LIKE MOST OF US LITTLE PEOPLE.INVEST THE PRICE OF THIS BOOK IN YOUR RETIREMENT FUND OR BUY GRANDMOTHER GROCERIES.

I did some research.......1999-08-26

In follow up to my skeptical, first review of Mr Peterson's "Gray Doom", I researched the total population numbers. Here are the facts. According to the US Census Bureau, in 1999 the median age is 35.5 and the mean age is 36.4. In 2030, when the "Peterson crisis" hits, the median age will be 38.5 and the mean age will be 39.9. Yes, our total population will be older but I have a hard time getting too alarmed over 3 years. In fact, if wisdom comes with age, maybe our "older" society will be better. I think Mr. Peterson should present all the facts and stop trying to alarm us needlessly. By the way, is he a Democrat?

Average customer rating:

Power Sytem Harmonic Analysis
This book is very instructive

Power System Harmonic Analysis
Jos Arrillaga , Bruce C. Smith , Neville R. Watson , and Alan R. Wood
Manufacturer: Wiley
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Power System Harmonics

ASIN: 0471975486

Book Description

Quality of power supply is now a major issue worldwide making harmonic analysis an essential element in power system planning and design. Power System Harmonic Analysis presents novel analytical and modelling tools for the assessment of components and systems, and their interactions at harmonic frequencies. The recent proliferation of power electronic equipment is a significant source of harmonic distortion and the authors present effective techniques to tackle this real engineering problem. Features include:

Introduction to the main harmonic modelling philosophies
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Presenting effective techniques for the analysis and resolution of harmonic interactions, this valuable book will be an asset to engineers and researchers involved in the planning, design and operation of power systems. Power System Harmonic Analysis will also serve as a useful reference for postgraduate students following courses in power systems and power electronics disciplines.

Customer Reviews:

Power Sytem Harmonic Analysis.......2001-03-22

This book gives the most needed information on power system Harmonics along with the necessary background theory. It is a most useful piece of information source on the topic of growing concern.

However, discussion about mitigation techniques for harmonics is not apparently present in the book.

This book is very instructive.......1999-02-13

I think this book is necessary for all new electrical engineers graduates, it shows you that the fascinating world of power quality is easier to understand that it seems.

Utilization of Ocean Waves: Wave to Energy Conversion

Average customer rating:

A collection of important papers. A classic synopsis

Utilization of Ocean Waves: Wave to Energy Conversion
Michael E. McCormick , and Young C. Kim
Manufacturer: Amer Society of Civil Engineers
ProductGroup: Book
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A collection of important papers. A classic synopsis.......2002-02-16

This assembly of resumed research papers on Wave Energy Technology, was part of the ASCE Specialty Conference, Utilization of Ocean Waves, held at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography in 1986. Signed by some of the most prominent researchers in industry and academy, such as Prof. M.E.MCCORMICK, Prof. Y.MASUDA, T.J.T. WHITTAKER, KIM NIELSEN -among others, this brief 200-page synopsis cannot be overlooked by the serious field researcher. Despite the significant field progress accomplished since when issued, this is a meticulously selected material as to deserve classification as an all-time classic. Among issues considered are, capture chamber geometry efficiencies, research and design, turbine design and performance, power take-off integration, along with some basic assessment on economics and electric power transmission to shoreline. Undertandably, an elaborate section is devoted to applications incorporating the renowned McCormick impulse counter-rotating turbine, as well as an excellent section on the ubiquitous Wells turbine. I should take this opportunity to gratify the many inquiries asking me for information on the KVAERNER Norway OWC device, by indicating a related paper appearing in this book.

Average customer rating:

A good introduction into distributions
A good introduction into distributions

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Customer Reviews:

A good introduction into distributions.......2002-01-25

I obtained (a pre-print form) of this book in my final undergraduate year, as a text book in a course on Mathematical Methods in Physics.

The purpose of the book is to study waves using the theory of distributions. Overall the book does an excellent job of explaining distributions. Along the way both Fourier analyses and Green functions are explained in more complete way than most textbooks do. What I felt missing was more extensive examples of how this formalism helps to study waves in varioius sub-fields of physics. Instead the authors opt to use the formalism to study a wide range of phenomena, without going into details. As an example the treatment of surface gravity waves could have been made more interesting with the addition rotating fluids.

During my graduate studies I would often encounter fluid dynamics problems where the methods learned through this book were applicable and usually required less effort than more pedestrian methods being peddled in fluid dynamics text books.

In short I think the material in this book served me well as background for my graduate studies.

A good introduction into distributions.......2002-01-25

I obtained (a pre-print form) of this book in my final undergraduate year, as a text book in a course on Mathematical Methods in Physics.

Customer Reviews:

A pocket guide to ocean energy recovery technologies.......2002-01-26

This is a thorough overview on the vast issue of energy recovery form the oceans. It is important to classify it as trully useful brief guide in all currently proven technology fields, tidal, Ocean thermal (OTEC) and wave energy. Practically an assembly of thoroughly compiled papers, this guide will assess theoretical infrastructure, technological approach, advantages and problems, future research, added to an elementary assessment on economics; all within about 300 pages.
The rapidly rising international concern on wave energy technology, is faced with a considerable hazard in obtaining some basic and resumed information on wave energy technology and perspective. An increased percentage of the inquiries addressed to my office, are focused on demand for proven financial and feasibility data. This guide should prove of particular importance to students, academics and engineers seeking some comparative financial information on wave energy projects, compiled by the pronounced authority of Prof. J.Falnes. Although considerable progress has accumulated since when published in 1992, the book remains a definite and solid introductory guide -particularly so for the popular OWC (Oscillating Water Column) technology.
State of the art...is a risky issue to attempt -even as a title effect. That is among reasons on why only four stars are awarded.

Power Systems Harmonics: Computer Modelling and Analysis

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Scalable Video on Demand: Adaptive Internet-based Distribution

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