Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Amazon.com

In the tradition of Innumeracy by John Allen Paulos, German scientist Gerd Gigerenzer offers his own take on numerical illiteracy. "In Western countries, most children learn to read and write, but even in adulthood, many people do not know how to think with numbers," he writes. "I focus on the most important form of innumeracy in everyday life, statistical innumeracy--that is, the inability to reason about uncertainties and risk." The author wisely uses concrete examples from the real world to make his points, and he shows the devastating impact of this problem. In one example, he describes a surgeon who advised many of his patients to accept prophylactic mastectomies in order to dodge breast cancer. In a two-year period, this doctor convinced 90 "high-risk" women without cancer to sacrifice their breasts "in a heroic exchange for the certainty of saving their lives and protecting their loved ones from suffering and loss." But Gigerenzer shows that the vast majority of these women (84 of them, to be exact) would not have developed breast cancer at all. If the doctor or his patients had a better understanding of probabilities, they might have chosen a different course. Fans of Innumeracy will enjoy Calculated Risks, as will anyone who appreciates a good puzzle over numbers. --John Miller

Book Description

At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics.

Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics.

Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors.

Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity.

To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap.

This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

Customer Reviews:

Overwritten, yet not particularly clear.......2007-06-02

I am always looking for materials to use to help non-specialist students understand some of the basic statistical errors that pharmaceutical advertisers exploit (and that so many otherwise educated and informed medical personnel also seem to misunderstand).

It's surprisingly difficult: some are way too technical and eccentric (Hacking). Others are too cute and breezy ("How to Lie..") Some are marred by the author's own (ungrounded) evolutionary conjectures (Taleb, "Fooled By Randomness....") Some just aren't clear enough.

Gigerenzer's book falls in that 'not clear enough' category. It fails to be clear for several reasons. First, as another reviewer has observed, it is badly overwritten. The analytical points, such as they were, were presented VERY early on in the book. The book should have been a pamplet. But, really, it is worse than that: instead of deepening the points, or providing more of a conceptual roadmap,the author repeated them, and in some cases clouded them with dubious interpretations/speculations, etc.

Some things should have been more carefully explained (in English as well as numbers), notably the misuse of statistics in interpreting evidence, both in the courtroom and in the interpretation of 'DNA fingerprints.' Some things should have been omitted. The chapter about HIV counseling really did not add very much. On the contrary: I think it may have detracted. It is VERY difficult to perform and interpret the sort of study that the author's student chose to perform; the student's methodology study was SERIOUSLY flawed, as any social science researcher is uncomfortably well aware.

Another candidate for deletion is the author's discussion of domestic violence. The statistical point is well made (and familiar): you have to have the right contrast class, or nothing you infer has any validity re: alleged connections between battering and killing. But the author's more 'philosophical' observations and speculations about violence against women....well, here again, I cringed. This IS an area in which there has been much examination, analysis, and--yes--speculation. The author's conjectures were painfully naive. I am sure he did not mean to appear flippant or to be laying claim to consideration as a serious investigator of the problem of domestic abuse. Still.....

I gave the book two rather than three stars at least in part because, in the end, there were serious audience questions: for WHOM was the author really writing? I honestly don't know. Not for me (a non-mathematician who nevertheless understands a fair amount). Not for my students, who are bright but more statistically naive. Not for the general layperson: the discussions are too mathematicized yet underexplained.

A good editor could have done wonders...

The truth about, fingerprints, DNA, AIDS, legal drugs, and so much more........2005-12-29

The book "Calculated Risk: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You", by Gerd Gigerenzer, will increase your risk aptitude. The 4 1/2 star (Amazon.com) book does not discuss statistical innumeracy from the IT perspective, but discusses innumeracy mainly in contemporary medicine, the justice system, and life in general.

Gerd describes four aspects of innumeracy as follows:
01) Illusion of certainty:
For example: Fingerprint and DNA testing.
02) Ignorance of relevant risks:
For example: "It is more likely that a young American male
knows baseball statistics than that his chances of dying on
a motorcycle trip is about 15 times higher than his chances
of dying on a car trip of the same distance."
03) Miscommunication of risks:
For example: One can communicate the chances that a test
will actually detect a disease in various ways ... The most
frequent way is in the form of a conditional probability: If
a person has cancer, the probability the he/she will test
positive on a screening is 90 percent. Many physicians
confuse that statement with this one: If a person test
positive on a screening, the probability that he/she has
cancer is 90 percent.
04) Drawing incorrect inferences from statistics:
For example: "Consider a newspaper article in which it is
reported that men with high cholesterol have a 50 percent
higher risk of heart attack. The figure of 50 percent
sounds frighting, put what does it mean? It means that out
of 100 fifty-year-old men without high cholesterol,
about 4 are expected to have a heart attack within ten years,
whereas among men with high cholesterol this number is 6. The
increase from 4 to 6 is the relative risk increase, that is,
50 percent. However. if one instead compares the number of
men in the two groups who are not expected to have heart
attacks in the next 10 years, the same increase in risk is
from 96 to 94, that is, about 2 percent (absolute risk). Now
the benefit of reducing one's cholesterol level no longer
looks so great."

Far from being a dry book on risk, uncertainty, and statistics, Gerd Gigerenzer is entertaining, provocative, irreverent and a bit of a maverick
.
" ... 1 out of every 90 Americans will lose his or her life in a motor vehicle accident by the age of 75. Most of them die in passenger car accidents."

" ... the terrorist attack on September 11. 2001, cost the lives of some 3,000 people. The subsequent decision of millions to drive rather than fly may have cost the lives of many more."

"... DNA ... match probability of 1 in 16 for a brother ... "

This book provides "tools for overcoming innumeracy that are easy to learn, apply, and remember."

A couple of great ideas.......2004-08-06

This book illustrates two important concepts very well: Statistics confuse even intelligent people, and the meaning of "false negative" and "false positive" data, especially when reported as percentages, can be far from intuitive.

Why only three stars? Both of these ideas are thoroughly illustrated and then beaten to death by page 50 of this 300 page book. (You can get most of the information from reading one or two of the other reviews here on Amazon).

The remainder of the book uses various medical examples to make the point that a percentage of a percentage may sound more significant than it is (or less significant than it is). As Gigerenzer illustrates, doing the arithmetic to determine the actual numbers of each case represented will untangle most misunderstandings. After about a dozen of these, though, only a reader with an interest in the specific examples will remain engaged.

The writing is clear, the examples are all good, and the book does amply illustrate the quotation cited in Mark Twain's Autobiography: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

How to interpret test results better than your Doc!.......2004-06-03

This is a very clearly written book. It demonstrates many numerical errors the press, the public, and experts make in interpreting the accuracy of medical screening test (mammography, HIV test, etc...) and figuring out the probability of an accused person being guilty.

At the foundation of the above confusions lies the interpretation of Baye's rule. Taking one example on page 45 regarding breast cancer. Breast cancer affects 0.8% of women over 40. Mammography correctly interprets 90% of the positive tests (when women do have breast cancer) and 93% of the negative ones (when they don't have breast cancer). If you ask a doctor how accurate this test is if you get a positive test, the majority will tell you the test is 90% accurate or more. That is wrong. The author recommends using natural frequencies (instead of conditional probabilities) to accurately interpret Baye's rule. Thus, 8 out of every 1,000 women have breast cancer. Of these 8 women, 7 will have a positive mammogram (true positives). Of, the remaining 992 women who don't have breast cancer, 70 will have a positive mammogram (false positives). So, the accuracy of the test is 7/(7+70) = 10%. Wow, that is pretty different than the 90% that most doctors believe!

What to do? In the case of mammography, if you take a second test that turns positive, the accuracy would jump to 57% (not that much better than flipping a coin). It is only when taking a third test that also turns positive that you can be reasonably certain (93% accuracy) that you have breast cancer. So, what doctors should say is that a positive test really does not mean anything. And, it is only after the third consecutive positive test that you can be over 90% certain that you have breast cancer. Yet, most doctors convey this level of accuracy after the very first test!

What applies to breast cancer screening also applies to prostate cancer, HIV test, and other medical tests. In each case, the medical profession acts like the first positive test provides you with certainty that you have the disease or not. As a rule of thumb, you should get at least a second test and preferably a third one to increase its accuracy.

The author comes up with many other counterintuitive concepts. They are all associated with the fact that events are far more uncertain than the certainty that is conveyed to the public. For instance, DNA testing does not prove much. Ten people can share the same DNA pattern.

Another counterintuitive concepts is associated with risk reduction. Let's say you have a cancer that has a prevalence of 0.5% in the population (5 in 1,000). The press will invariably make promising headline that a given treatment reduces mortality by 20%. But, what does this really mean? It means that mortality will be reduced by 1 death (from 5 down to 4). The author states that the relative risk has decreased by 20%; but, the absolute risk has decreased by only 1 in 1,000. He feels strongly that both risks should be conveyed to the public.

The author shows how health agencies and researchers express benefits of treatments by mentioning reduction in relative risk. This leads the public to grossly overstate the benefits of such treatment. The author further indicates how various health authorities use either relative risk or absolute risk to either maximize or minimize the public's interpretation of a health risk. But, they rarely convey both; which is the only honest way to convey the data.

If you are interested in this subject, I strongly recommend: "The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making" by Scott Plous. This is a fascinating book analyzing how we are less Cartesian than we think. A slew of human bias flaws our own judgment. Many of these deal with other application of Baye's rule.

Calculated Risks by Gigerenzer.......2003-10-28

The author presents some important observations about calculated
risks, probabilities and statistical test inferences. He makes
clear the necessity to understand risks clearly at the outset
of any important decision. For instance, a physician must take
into consideration "false positive " test results so that
he/she does not over-react. An over-reaction could cause the
physician to take unnecessary precautions that could do more
to endanger the patient than help. In addition, the author
cautions against fabrication of certainty or the use of
statistics to prove a predetermined result. This book is
useful in arriving at a realistic design for a statistical
test or any other test from which an important scientific
inference will be made.

Average customer rating:

This is more of a historical novel than you might suspect!
Calculated Risk
An interesting primer for the financially inclined
One of my all-time favorites!
The last one

Calculated Risk
Katherine Neville
Manufacturer: Ballantine Books
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Mass Market Paperback

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ASIN: 0345386825
Release Date: 1994-03-02

Book Description

"A dizzying, enjoyable caper...After reading this hard-to-put down thriller, you may put all your money in your mattress."
LOS ANGELES DAILY NEWS
When financial executive Verity Banks' latest proposal is axed by her boss, she decides to show how easy it is to break through automated security, hide money, and then show senior management where it is. Then her former mentor, financial wizard, Dr. Zooltan Tor ups the ante, and dares her to steal a billion dollars, invest it to earn thirty million in three months, then put the original billion back before anyone notices. To heighten the challenge, Tor and Verity will compete against each other, though Tor gives Verity an edge: she can use a computer for her theft, but he cannot....
A BOOK-OF-THE-MONTH-CLUB ALTERNATE SELECTION

Customer Reviews:

This is more of a historical novel than you might suspect!.......2005-06-18

The first book I read by the author was The Eight, which I thought was terrific. The biggest problem I had with this one is how dated it's gotten...some of the background needed for the plot to work just hasn't held up over time. If you can suspend your judgment on that it's not a bad read. But if you've read The Eight, you're likely to be disappointed.

Calculated Risk.......2005-02-10

After reading The Eight, I was excited about reading another novel by the author. Unfortunately, I was quite disappointed. The characters could be in a romance novel, the story line was predictable and the plot did not keep me in suspense at all. When I read a good book, I am always sad when I reach the end of the story- I was happy to get to the end of this one!

An interesting primer for the financially inclined.......2004-08-23

This is a good introduction for anyone who doesn't know too much about the world of high finance. Neville explains her plot in clear, unambiguous prose.

Would, however, that she could flesh out her characters the way she does her banking terminology. They are all cardboard cutouts, to one degree or another - some of them have a little more personality than others, but it seems that Neville has been working in those cold heartless banks just a little too long.

The three-star rating is for her explanations of financial terms and transactions; her previous book ("The Eight") was far better.

One of my all-time favorites!.......2004-07-12

I love this book! I have read it several times. It is a romantic thriller for the intelligent person. Katherine Neville has written three well researched, interesting, novels and this is my favorite. I hope she writes another one SOON!

The last one.......2003-03-02

Definitely the last book of Katherine Neville, first of all let me tell you that if you decide to read this book, the story that is written in the beginning of every part of the years 1800, just skip it, don't worth it your time.
The second point that is at the very beginning of the book is that when you are going to find a new job, please don't tell me that your future boss will call to your actual job to ask about you, is obvious that your actual boos won't say anything good about you.
The third point is that the book has nothing, two people are trying to rob a bank using the computers and some hackers, but definitely Katherine didn't know how to write it or how to explain it, I put two stars because my mind didn't let me put just one.

Calculated Risk: The Extraordinary Life of Jimmy Doolittle-Aviation Pioneer and World War II Hero

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Must Read
Calculated Risk:
The behind the scenes of this famous American hero.

Calculated Risk: The Extraordinary Life of Jimmy Doolittle-Aviation Pioneer and World War II Hero
Jonna Doolittle Hoppes
Manufacturer: Santa Monica Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 1891661442

Book Description

Famous for leading the Tokyo Raid, America's first strike against Japan in World War II, Jimmy Doolittle lived a remarkable life as an American pilot. This firsthand account by his granddaughter reveals an extraordinary individual—a scientist with a doctorate in aeronautical engineering from MIT, an aviation pioneer who was the first to fly across the United States in less than 24 hours and the first to fly "blind" (using only his plane's instruments), a barnstormer well known for aerobatics, a popular racing pilot who won every major air race at least once, recipient of both the Congressional Medal of Honor and Presidential Medal of Freedom, a four-star general, and commander of the 8th, 12th, and 15th Air Forces. This memoir provides insights into the public and private world of Jimmy Doolittle and his family and sheds light on the drives and motivation's of one of America's most influential and ambitious aviators.

Customer Reviews:

Must Read.......2006-11-01

I can sum this up in a very short space. This is a well written book that not only gives an insight into General Jimmy Doolittle's contributions to our nation and the world, but also into his family and his wife's contributions on the home front during WWII. As far as I am concerned, no history class should be taught without this book as required reading.

Calculated Risk:.......2006-03-02

This book was purchased for my son who is interested in WWII planes and fliers, and since I was a civilian during WWII and lived through that era, this book was definitely to be read (especially after watching Life and Times on our local KCET station and the granddaughter was interviewed regarding this book). Both of us enjoyed reading the life of this remarkable man and it was a must for his growing library.

The behind the scenes of this famous American hero........2005-05-28

This book is about the family life of Jimmy Doolittle written by his granddaughter. It's touching in every aspect of what a family goes through over the years. After reading this book you will understand why his biography is titled " I Could Never Be So Lucky Again" by CV Glines, and why he is known as "The Master of Calculated Risk."

Calculated Risks: The Toxicity and Human Health Risks of Chemicals in our Environment

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Calculated Risks: The Toxicity and Human Health Risks of Chemicals in our Environment
Joseph V. Rodricks
Manufacturer: Cambridge University Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0521783089

Book Description

Safeguarding economic prosperity, whilst protecting human health and the environment, is at the forefront of scientific and public interest. This book provides a practical and balanced view on toxicology, control, risk assessment and risk management, addressing the interplay between science and public health policy. This fully revised and updated new edition provides a detailed analysis on chemical and by-product exposure, how they enter the body and the suitability of imposed safety limits. New chapters on dose, with particular emphasis on children and vulnerable subpopulations, reproductive and developmental toxicants and toxicity testing are included. With updated and comprehensive coverage of international developments of risk management and safety, this will have broad appeal to researchers and professionals involved in chemical safety and regulation as well as the general reader interested in environmental pollution and public health.

Calculated Risk: A Provider's Guide to Assessing and Controlling the Financial Risk of Managed Care (J-B AHA Press)

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Calculated Risk: A Provider's Guide to Assessing and Controlling the Financial Risk of Managed Care (J-B AHA Press)
Bruce S. Pyenson
Manufacturer: Jossey-Bass
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0787956341

Book Description

Calculated Risk will help providers develop risk management strategies that concentrate on the provider's financial risk as it relates to payment for health care, including controlling and allocating variable and fixed costs.

Average customer rating:

More like 2 1/2 stars....
BRILLIANCE - GENIUS - SPECIAL - FASCINATING TALE
electrifying fast-paced espionage romance

Calculated Risk (Silhouette Bombshell)
Stephanie Doyle
Manufacturer: Silhouette
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Mass Market Paperback

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ASIN: 037351350X

Customer Reviews:

More like 2 1/2 stars...........2007-05-06

Arnold Salinski is dead and only his former protégé, Sabrina Masters, can break his code to continue his project for the CIA. However, the deadly terrorist mastermind, Kahsan, also wants to get his hands on Arnold's project. Sabrina is willing to take some risks in order to have her past forgiven, but will she survive the added complication of her former trainer, Quinlan?

I really wanted to like CALCULATED RISK. Having just finished POSSESSION by Stephanie Doyle, I was prepared to be wowed. Instead, I was bored. The idea of an intelligent and gutsy woman recruited by the CIA at such a tender age intrigued me but somehow Sabrina left me cold. Perhaps it was her attraction to Quinlan, a hero with few redeeming qualities. Quinlan's nasty attitude almost sent CALCULATED RISK flying across the room on more than one occasion!

CALCULATED RISK has a very gritty feel to it. Some of the scenes are a bit harsh and may offend some readers. While CALCULATED RISK is listed as a romantic suspense, the romantic elements are a bit weak. The attraction between Sabrina and Quinlan seemed almost brutal at times, without any softer moments. The flashbacks between the past and the present only exacerbated the situation.

Stephanie Doyle is obviously a talented writer as evidenced by the absolutely phenomenal book, POSSESSED. CALCULATED RISK is not on the same level as POSSESSED and should be approached with caution by fans of romantic suspense. However, if you are looking for an edgier, grittier story, perhaps CALCULATED RISK is worth trying.

COURTESY OF CK2S KWIPS AND KRITIQUES

BRILLIANCE - GENIUS - SPECIAL - FASCINATING TALE.......2006-10-01

Sabrina Masters was so special with genius abilities that her father didn't know how to handle such a child.

Harvard bored her. Arthur became her mentor and friend as such. There always was that question, "Was she smarter than him?".

When the CIA recruited her she was only 16. Quinlan became her trainer when he was in the country that first year as he recovered from a confrontation with Kahsan. He had been tracking Kahsan for 15 years.
Quinlan is in his thirties. Whoops!

We are brought up to speed on the first 4 years of Sabrina's life with the CIA training that she eventually walks out on. She does not want to be used.

By the time she is nearly twenty she is still a freaking egotist and falling in love with Quinlan and of course takes him as a lover. He has kept himself under strict control until that eventful night and the next meeting introduces Sabrina to the society woman who claims to be his intended. Blows her mind.

Well, ten years of defiant, aimless hopscotching around the Casinos brings her full circle. And with an elder Victorian house to support. Which gets shot up. Now she is 30? He must be around 48.

Quinlan is duped into contact with Sabrina because of her contact with Kahsan. He doesn't trust her intentions but then he doesn't trust anyone.
Loved her ability with decoding and how she put it over on the legendary Sal Ploxm. Oh, yeah, and her Annie Oakley tricks which kind of stump Q.

This is a fascinating, special story except for her freaking f'n. Keep that language for the trash pile or out behind the barn. I hate all these black-outs I must insert into my book. Remember what goes into the mind comes out of the mouth. Another trampy female.

Definitely Recommend for the mature --m As a Keeper???????

electrifying fast-paced espionage romance .......2005-03-05

The email from brilliant Arnold Salinski addressed to GG (as he called her - girl genius) immediately stated he was dead. To verify Sabrina "GG" Masters calls the number her mentor gave her. CIA Assistant Director Kreuger confirms that Arnold is dead and they arrange to meet in Gettysburg. Ironically the CIA fired her ten years ago yet she is the one that Salinski selected in an Einstein contest involving his last project, Deep Throat.

Kreuger explains the Lithium isotope has the potential to be the strongest counter to global terrorism. However, only Salinski knew how to use it; some bad dudes are in country planning a neo 9/11, but with Salinski dead his work is useless. Not only do they want her to break into Salinski's computer, but help bring down internationally number one terrorist Kahsan who they believe plans to steal the technology. Agent Jack Quinlan, her former lover who betrayed her a decade ago, is assigned to protect her, but Kreuger makes it clear to her that her bodyguard Q who she never stopped loving is expendable.

CALCULATED RISK is an electrifying fast-paced espionage romance starring an exceptionally different type of heroine and not just because of her brain power. Sabrina has spent the last decade working casinos using her intelligence for minor personal gain as she drifts through life since she learned her beloved Jack was engaged to someone else and the CIA canned her. Now she is their only hope, but still loves Jack who in her mind is not expendable as she simply has to save the world or at least America. Stephanie Doyle writes a fun thriller that climaxes with a slate of the hand.

Harriet Klausner

Calculated Risks: Understanding the Toxicity of Chemicals in our Environment

Average customer rating:

Good background, but a biased representation.

Calculated Risks: Understanding the Toxicity of Chemicals in our Environment
Joseph V. Rodricks
Manufacturer: Cambridge University Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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Mad Cows And Mother's Milk: The Perils Of Poor Risk Communication

ASIN: 0521423317

Book Description

Public concern regarding environmental pollution and chemicals present in foods, consumer products, and the work place are at an all time high. While there is widespread awareness, confusion still reigns, aggravated by conflicting reports concerning carcinogens in food and drinking water, or about chemicals present in medicines and household products that may cause birth defects. The central purpose of this book is to describe how scientists come to understand the toxic properties of such chemicals and the health risks they may pose. Rather than attempting to expose governmental and corporate ignorance, negligence or corruption, this book explores the underlying scientific issues.

Customer Reviews:

Good background, but a biased representation........2005-05-03

I recently read this book for a graduate level class in pesticides. Although this is an accurate and informative (although a little outdated) account of how risk assessment is done in the United States, I feel like the information was presented in a biased way:

(1) Rodricks minimizes the risks posed by introduced chemicals by emphasizing high accute toxicities of naturally occurring chemicals, without directly addressing the relative prevalance of blowfish toxin, for example, and many widely-used introduced chemicals (i.e. if we're less likely to encounter blowfish toxin, it poses less of a risk to us than common lawn pesticides may pose).
(2) Rodricks mentions several assumptions inherent in doing these risk calculations--assumptions which seem at the surface to err on the side of caution-- but doesn't discuss the arbitrary nature of some of these assumptions and the possible error that may result.
(3) Also, he covers the (then) current requirements for chemical approval, but fails to mention the thousands of chemicals that were approved for use before the current testing regulations were put in place. These chemicals are in the process of being tested according to the new standards, but this testing is taking an unexpectedly long time. To what risks are we exposing ourselves and our environment in the meantime?
(4) When it comes to regulation, Rodricks briefly touches on other considerations, such as economics, politics, and public sentiment. He criticizes the public's "emotional" role in regulation, but when armed with the whole picture, legitimate concerns can be raised on the adequacy of the current state of regulation. Since the public is ultimately assuming the risk associated with the use of these chemicals, I believe public concern is a very valid consideration and has lead to great improvements in the past.

Lastly, this book was published before the focus on endocrine disruptors was established. Endocrine disruptors are chemicals that can affect hormone activity in humans and animals (and even plants and bacteria) even when found only in very, very low concentrations. There is mounting evidence supporting this theory, and the EPA is currently establishing standards for testing chemicals for this activity.

That said, I recommend this book for a baseline understanding of chemical risk assessment in the United States, but don't stop here if you want the whole picture.

Average customer rating:

Calculated Risks
Bruce D. Berkowitz
Manufacturer: Simon & Schuster Ltd
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0671600877

Calculated risk: A master plan for common stocks

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Calculated risk: A master plan for common stocks
Robert M Sharp
Manufacturer: Dow Jones-Irwin
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding

Public Finance | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
ASIN: 0870947613

Average customer rating:

A Calculated Risk
Rae Foley
Manufacturer: Dell
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Mass Market Paperback
ASIN: B000KIBD80

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